Archive for February 6th, 2023

Bitcoin Mining Meets Wall Street: A Study of Publicly Traded Crypto Mining Companies

February 6, 2023

Hanna Halaburda & David Yermack in NBER paper:

The Hindenburg effect: Is it a storm that will pass or is a shake-up on the cards?

February 6, 2023

A podcast with G Sampath of The Hindu and myself on the Hindenburg and Adani saga.

Prof Aswath Damodaran does a terrific job as usual of looking at the financials of the group and what that means for financial markets.

Achieving One Trillion Dollar Economy for Tamil Nadu: Some Implications and Concerns

February 6, 2023

C. Rangarajan and K.R. Shanmugam in this IPPR paper analyse whether and how Tamil Nadu could becom a one trillion dollar economy:

This study examines whether Tamil Nadu’s economy will become a US $1 trillion economy by 2030, given its current slow growth regime, inflation, and rupee depreciation. Our analyses indicate that, assuming an inflation rate of 5% and 2% exchange rate depreciation per annum, the Tamil Nadu economy needs to grow at a real growth rate of 13.2% per annum for 8 consecutive years from 2023-24 to 2030-31 to reach the US $1 trillion target. Considering the growth contributions of sub sectors, this study simulates multiple growth strategies to achieve 9% overall growth, which would achieve the target in 2033-34. Further, it examines whether export promotion will help to achieve this target. Finally, it shows that the current level of debt-GSDP ratio is a hindrance to growth. It suggests that ensuring 14% nominal (i.e., 9% real) growth of economy, the state should target for a revenue surplus from 2023-24 onwards, such that it contains its fiscal deficit to only 2% level and obtains a sustainable threshold debt level of about 18% in 2034-35.

Financial Crisis in a Socialist Setting: Impact on Political Behavior, Social Trust, and Economic Values

February 6, 2023

Ran Abramitzky, Netanel Ben-Porath, Victor Lavy & Michal Palgi in this NBER paper look at a financial crisis in socialist setting:

Industrial policy is the new globalization

February 6, 2023

Tyler Cowen on how Industrial policy is the new globalization:

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here goes:

It would be a mistake, however, to think that these [industrial] policies represent a move away from globalization. In fact they are an extension of globalization — and they likely will enable yet more globalization to come. That sounds counterintuitive, so let me explain.

Start with the domestic subsidies for green energy, as embodied in 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act. Those policies favor domestic firms in industries such as electric vehicles, batteries, and solar power. You could call that nationalism or even mercantilism. Yet those subsidies rely not only on a prior history of globalization but also an expected future for globalization. To the extent the US is able to extend its domestic battery production, it is because more lithium and other raw materials can be produced overseas and exported to the US. To the extent the US succeeds with its domestic solar industry, it is by drawing upon earlier advances in Spain, Germany and China — and undoubtedly future advances to come.

Even the most successful “nationalistic” industrial policies rely on a highly globalized world. If carried out strictly on a one-nation basis, industrial policy is doomed to fail. Globalization has been so thorough, and has gone so well, that at least a little industrial policy is now thinkable for many nations.

And this:

Just as globalization can enable or support nationalist industrial policy, so the converse is true. Assume that these various industrial policies meet with some degree of success, and that China, the EU and the US all become more self-sufficient in various ways. Those same political units are more likely to then embrace and support further globalization…

Some conservatives criticize globalization while praising industrial policy. They are playing right into the hands of the Davos globalizing elite. In fact, that is the best argument for many of these ideas: Today’s industrial policy is not an alternative to globalization. It is preparing the world for the next round of it.

Well, well, well. how narrative changes. industrial policy was once called out for substituting local over foreign and anto globalisaiton….now industrial policy promotes exports and pro-globalisation..


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