Archive for April, 2023

Eugene Fama takes a look back at Modern Finance: Accomplishments and Limitations

April 28, 2023

Interesting interview of Eugene Fama:

In a conversation held in June 2016 between Nobel laureate Eugene Fama of the University of Chicago and Joel Stern, chairman and CEO of Stern Value Management, Professor Fama revisited some of the landmarks of “modern finance,” a movement that was launched in the early 1960s at Chicago and other leading business schools, and that gave rise to Efficient Markets Theory, the Modigliani‐Miller “irrelevance” propositions, and the Capital Asset Pricing Model. These concepts and models are still taught at prestigious business schools, whose graduates continue to make use of them in corporations and investment firms throughout the world. But while acknowledging the staying power of “modern finance,” Fama also notes that, even after a half‐century of research and refinements, most asset‐pricing models have failed empirically.

Estimating something as apparently simple as the cost of capital remains fraught with difficulty. He dismisses betas for individual stocks as “garbage,” and even industry betas are said to be unstable, “too dynamic through time.” What’s more, the wide range of estimates for the market risk premium — anywhere from 2% to 10% — casts doubt on their reliability and practical usefulness. And as if to reaffirm the fundamental insight of the M&M “irrelevance” propositions — namely, that what companies do with the right‐hand sides of their balance sheets “doesn’t matter” — Fama observes that “we still have no real resolution on the key questions of debt and taxes, or dividends and taxes.”

But if he has reservations about much of modern finance, Professor Fama is even more skeptical about subfields now in vogue such as behavioral finance, which he describes as “mostly just dredging for anomalies,” with no underlying theory and no testable predictions. Although he does not dispute that a number of well‐documented traits from cognitive psychology show up in individual behavior, Fama says that behavioral economists have thus far failed to come up with a testable theory that links cognitive psychology to market prices.

And he continues to defend the concept of “efficient markets” with which his name has long been closely associated, while noting that empirically based asset pricing models such as his (with Ken French) “three‐factor” CAPM have produced much better results than the standard CAPM.

 

Sovereign risk and bank lending: evidence from 1999 Turkish earthquake

April 27, 2023
Yusuf Soner Başkaya, Bryan Hardy, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and Vivian Yue in this BIS paper:

We use an exogenous fiscal shock to identify the transmission of government risk to bank lending due to banks holding government bonds. We illustrate with a theoretical model that for banks with higher exposure to government bonds, a higher sovereign default risk implies lower bank net worth and less lending. Our empirical estimates confirm the model’s predictions. The exogenous change in sovereign default risk of Turkish government debt as a result of the 1999 Earthquake impacts banks whose balance sheets were exposed more to government bonds. The resulting lower bank net worth translates into lower credit supply. We rule out alternative explanations. Our estimates suggest this channel can explain half of the decline in bank lending following the earthquake. This underlines the importance of the bank balance-sheet channel in transmitting a higher sovereign default risk to reduced real economic activity.

Two Centuries of Business Leaders Who Took a Stand on Social Issues

April 27, 2023
Prof Geoffrey Jones of HBS has written a book titled Deeply Responsible Business: A Global History of Values-Driven Leadership.
HBS Working Knowledge shares insights from the book:
Jones chronicles two centuries of enterprises that have acted responsibly, from the 19th century British chocolate magnate George Cadbury, who helped educate and house residents of the factory town, to the 21st-century emergence of “B Corp” startups, businesses that are intended to be better for employees, communities, and the environment. Jones says the countercultural ethos associated with brands like Ben & Jerry’s ice cream and Patagonia clothing, which both advocate for the environment, has motivated business leaders to take socially responsible steps for many years.

The pioneers chronicled in his comprehensive narrative include Boston department store owner Edward Filene, who promoted credit unions and led a 1930s campaign against Nazi-era anti-Semitism; Robert Bosch, who sheltered Nazi resisters; and computer company founder An Wang, who helped revive Lowell, a small Massachusetts mill town. Jones writes that while all had their flaws, “the principles of honesty and fairness guided their actions. They perceived that there was more to life than making money and accumulating possessions.”

The rise of modern industry in 18th-century Great Britain featured what Jones calls “breathtaking examples of skullduggery and moral failure.” But he says those conditions also led to “a push for greater benevolence.” Much of it came from Cadbury and other devout 19th-century Quakers, who provided worker housing, education, and other benefits.

Repelled by England’s Dickensian poverty and inequality, Cadbury attended to his employees’ well-being. He paid their hospital bills, and built a housing development, soccer and cricket fields, a gymnasium, and an outdoor pool. (Jones grew up in Birmingham, not far from Cadbury’s factory.)

Around the same time, colonial India textile manufacturer J. N. Tata brought his Parsi and Zoroastrian spirituality to the development of what Jones describes as a 19th-century version of stakeholder capitalism. Along with an independence-minded industry, Tata envisioned a hydroelectric plant, tree plantings, and a wildlife sanctuary to improve life in the city. His son completed the project after Tata’s death. Today, the Tata Group is one of the largest and most respected corporations in India.

 

How Far Goods Travel: Global Transport and Supply Chains from 1965-2020

April 26, 2023
Sharat Ganapati & Woan Foong Wong in this NBER paper:

Important Questions for Future Economic Research

April 26, 2023

In this speech, Fed Governor Lisa Cook discusses important questions for future economic research:

 I was a professor of economics and international relations at Michigan State University for nearly two decades before joining the Board of Governors. Among my favorite courses to teach were undergraduate research courses. It was magical to see the novel ways that students brought new ideas, literature, models, methods, and data to the most pressing problems of the day. I see some of that magic in the research represented here this evening.

In keeping with that spirit of inquiry, I would like to talk today about some of the open questions I see for understanding the economic outlook and for setting monetary policy. I will also focus on some of the data sources I find valuable for answering those questions.

She discusses questions on wide-ranging macro topics: inflation, labor markets, monetary policy and so on.

Useful for students.

 

The Political Economy of John Kenneth Galbraith: A Guide for Beginners

April 26, 2023

In this paper, Brendan Sheehan writes on JK Galbraith:

In the third-quarter of the twentieth century John Kenneth Galbraith was probably the best-known economist in the world. He gloried in taking the road less travelled, challenging the conventional wisdom, the doctrines and myths, which sustain the social order. But criticism was never enough for Galbraith.

He created an alternative analysis, an unconventional wisdom, of how capitalism works: the general theory of advanced development. It emerged over the course of four of Galbraith’s key books: American Capitalism (1952), The Affluent Society (1958), The New Industrial State (1967) and Economics and the Public Purpose (1974).

It’s an audacious economic, political and social theory in the eclectic tradition of North American Institutionalism, which gives a new twist to the insights of Edward Chamberlain, Joan Robinson and John Maynard Keynes. Disappointingly, mainstream economics has ignored it; no trace is to be found in modern economics textbooks.

Mainstream economics have excluded quite a few things. Ignoring Galbraith’s contribution and ideas are no different..

Unleashing India’s Growth Potential

April 25, 2023
New IMF working paper by Shinya Kotera and TengTeng Xu:

This paper aims to analyze the drivers of India’s growth and potential growth. There are three main objectives. First, this paper examines the role of labor, capital, human capital, and TFP in explaining India’s growth in the past 50 years and draws a comparison with other fast-growing economies. Second, this paper estimates the impact of the pandemic on potential growth, and projects potential growth in the medium term, accounting for the impact of the pandemic through different channels. Third, this paper considers both baseline and upside scenarios of mediumterm potential growth. In the upside scenario, structural reforms play an important supporting role to unleash India’s growth potential.

Which factors have led to growth over 50 years:

…paper shows that India’s growth was mainly driven by labor in the 1970s and 80s. Capital was the key driver in the 90s and 2000s, with TFP growth picking up in the past decade or so before the recent growth slowdown. Overall, India has made important progress in accumulating productive physical capital over the past few decades, which has been crucial in supporting its economic growth and transformation. This paper finds that while the pandemic could lead to some medium-term adverse impact on potential growth, a successful implementation of structural reforms could more than offset the impact of the pandemic and provide support to potential growth over the medium term.

ESPNcricinfo@30: how cricket has changed over the past 30 years

April 25, 2023

ESPNcricinfo has turned 30 in 2023.

The website has a photo essay of key moments that capture last 30 years of cricket.  There is an essay by Dustin Silgardo on how cricket has changed in the last 30 years:

You don’t need numbers to tell you that cricket over the past 30 years has grown multifold, become faster, more frenetic. Your intuition, if it has survived the whirlwind that was the advent of T20, the shock of the Big Three takeover, and the clear shift from cricket as a live spectator experience to a broadcast property, will tell you that batters score runs faster; Tests finish in results other than draws more often; India, England and Australia dominate the scheduling; and cricketers play significantly more matches. But to what degree has the game changed? A look at the data ESPNcricinfo has accrued over the past 30 years reveals that on some parameters, the game has not changed as much as we might believe, while on others, the changes are more dramatic than we imagined.

Profile of Robert Merton and his contributions to finance

April 25, 2023

Zvi Bodie and Andrew Lo in this paper profile Robert Merton and his contributions to Finance:

Robert C. Merton is the School of Management Distinguished Professor of Finance at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and the John and Natty McArthur University Professor Emeritus at Harvard University. Merton received the Alfred Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1997 for a new method to determine the value of derivatives. After receiving a Ph.D. in Economics from MIT in 1970, Merton joined the MIT Sloan School finance faculty until 1988, at which time he was J.C. Penney Professor of Management. Merton’s research focuses on finance theory, including lifecycle and retirement finance, optimal portfolio selection, capital asset pricing, pricing of derivative securities, credit risk, loan guarantees, financial innovation, the dynamics of institutional change, and improving the methods of measuring and managing macro-financial systemic risk. Merton received a B.S. in Engineering Mathematics from Columbia University, a M.S.in Applied Mathematics from Caltech, and a Ph.D. in Economics from MIT.

 

 

Forum For State Studies: a new initiative to understand Union-State fiscal relations

April 25, 2023

Forum For State Studies is a new initiative to understand Union-State fiscal relations (HT: Niranjan Rajadhyaksha). Forum’s patron is DR YV Reddy and it has group of economists, legal experts, former central and commercial bankers, and former bureaucrats.

It has interesting articles on Union-State relationships and matters pertaining to public finance (nad much more). There is also a digital repository of important committees, debates and so on that have shaped the relationship.

 

Does Monetary Policy Matter? The Narrative Approach after 35 Years

April 24, 2023

Recent Regime Reversal in Inflation: The Indian Experience

April 21, 2023

Michael Debabrata Patra, Joice John and Asish Thomas George in this RBI Bulletin (Apr-23) article examines recent regime shifts in inflation in India.

  • Since the second half of 2022-23, the Indian economy is showing signs of transiting to a low inflation regime, as indicated by a decline in inflation persistence, softening of its underlying trend, reduction in broad-basing and a fall in the contribution of imported inflation.
  • The contribution of cyclically sensitive inflation emanating from categories such as household goods and services, education and housing is picking up in the recent period. Hence, monetary policy has to be in readiness to act pre-emptively to ensure that inflation weathers demand pull and is guided to the target.

The Great Indian Poverty Debate

April 21, 2023

There was a time that debates on Indian poverty were endless. Then they disappeared as govt stopped publishing certain data and abolished planning commission.

Recently, the debates on Indian poverty have again stirred.

My explainer in moneycontrol on the history, present and future of the Great Indian poverty debate.

Challenges to Disinflation: The Brazilian Experience under inflation targeting

April 21, 2023

Carlos Carvalho (Kapitalo Investimentos and PUC-Rio) and Fernanda Nechio (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) in this research paper:

We review two previous bouts of high inflation and disinflation since Brazil adopted inflation targeting. In both episodes, fiscal sustainability concerns were present and inflation expectations became unanchored despite substantial monetary policy tightening. Disinflation and the reanchoring of expectations took time and proved costly, as both episodes entailed a recession. They required tight monetary policy combined with critical shifts toward structural economic reforms and sound fiscal policy. The ongoing episode features the same fiscal concerns and unanchored inflation expectations. This suggests the path ahead for disinflation will be challenging, unless policies change direction. We also speculate whether the Brazilian experience can provide insights for other countries.

Has China’s Growth Gone from Miracle to Malady?

April 20, 2023

Prof Eswar Prasad on Chinese economy going forward:

China’s remarkable run of persistently high growth in recent decades is all the more stunning in light of the country’s low levels of financial and institutional development, state-dominated economy, and nondemocratic government. Notwithstanding the inefficient and risky growth model, the government has maneuvered the economy around various stresses without any major financial or economic crash. With a shrinking labor force and declining efficiency of investment, raising productivity growth is key to maintaining reasonable GDP growth. Unbalanced reforms, a schizophrenic approach to the role of the market versus the state, and strains in financial and property markets could result in significant volatility but a financial or economic collapse is not in the cards.

Building a modern central banking system to contribute to Chinese modernization

April 20, 2023

Mr Yi Gang, Governor of the People’s Bank of China in this speech discusses building modern central banking system in China:

The theme this year is “Financial Sector’s Role in Contributing to Chinese Modernization”, and I would like to take this opportunity to share my ideas on monetary policies, financial stability, and financial services required for establishing a modern central banking system.

It was proposed, both in the fourth and fifth plenary sessions of the 19th CPC Central Committee as well as the 20th CPC National Congress, to establish a modern central banking system. The Law of the People’s Republic of China on the People’s Bank of China, first enacted in 1995 and amended in 2003, stipulates the responsibilities of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) in a concise way, stating that the PBOC shall “formulate and implement monetary policies, guard against and resolve financial risks, and maintain financial stability”. It also states that “the aim of monetary policies shall be to maintain the stability of the value of the currency and thereby promote economic growth”. To this end, preserving currency stability and financial stability are two central tasks of the PBOC, and a growing consensus has been reached on this point over these years. Fulfilling these tasks, we will help promote full employment and economic growth, thus contributing to Chinese modernization.

In the end:

Generally speaking, Chinese modernization means new requirements for the establishment of a modern central banking system. To sum up the tasks involved, the priority is to achieve currency stability and financial stability. The fulfillment of these two tasks helps promote full employment and economic growth.

Next step, guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, the PBOC will resolutely implement the guidelines of the 20th CPC National Congress, the Central Economic Work Conference as well as the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). We will work hard to build a modern central banking system and maintain currency and financial stability, so as to promote full employment and economic growth and to contribute to Chinese modernization.

 

The Consequences of Fewer Banks in the U.S. Banking System

April 20, 2023

Governor of Federal Reserve, Michelle Bowman, in this speech discusses how fewer banks are posing problems for US economy:

In my view, right-sizing regulatory requirements, improving transparency, and supporting regulatory approaches that support new banks are important tools to promote healthy competition and reduce unintended consequences. We need a viable pipeline for the creation of new banks in the United States, and there are troubling indications that we are falling short on this front, with a continued decline in the number of banks in the United States, the continued interest in charter strip applications, and the ongoing shift of traditional bank activities into shadow banks.

While de novo bank formation may not be a top-of-mind issue for policymakers as we continue to deal with the recent bank failures, it remains an important issue. As policymakers consider the regulatory and supervisory framework in the U.S. banking system and consider specific adjustments to address identified shortcomings, we should also take into account the impact of incremental additional regulatory changes not only on de novo bank formation, but also on credit availability, competition, and the financial system. 

 

Reading Consumers’ Minds: An Analysis of Inflation Expectations

April 19, 2023

Purnima Shaw of RBI in this working paper:

The heterogeneity in the consumption baskets of households is often deemed responsible for the deviation of households’ inflation expectations from the headline inflation number. A novel approach is proposed in this paper to verify this by simulating heterogeneous population consumption baskets and estimating the mean inflation by sampling the baskets. The estimated mean inflation using a random approach fails to display closeness with the survey numbers. Therefore, the paper proposes alternative logical methods for designing basket compositions and identifies the most suited method using which the estimated expectations are found to be close to and well-correlated with the survey numbers.

The findings suggest that a sudden rise in inflation in items of regular use can explain the deviation in households’ inflation expectations from the official inflation figures. The deviation of survey expectations from the headline inflation can, thus, be explained effectively over and above the other factors viz., demographic characteristics and exposure to media reports, which influence the formation of inflation expectations. This attempt to identify the source(s) of disagreement in inflation expectations with respect to the official inflation can help in understanding consumers’ inflationary expectations better for use in inflation analysis.

Indian business today needs leaders like Keshub Mahindra

April 18, 2023

My oped in deccan herald. I reflect on the legacy left behind by leaders such as Keshub Mahindra. These leaders have left really big shoes to fill.

Financial Fragility without Banks: Lessons from 18th century

April 17, 2023

Proponents of narrow banking have argued that lender of last resort policies by central banks, along with deposit insurance and other government interventions in the money markets, are the primary causes of financial instability. However, as we show in this post, non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) triggered a financial crisis in 1772 even though the financial system at that time had few banks and deposits were not insured. NBFIs profited from funding risky, longer-dated assets using cheap short-term wholesale funding and, when they eventually failed, authorities felt compelled to rescue the financial system.

With or without banks, financial fragility will always be there in some form or the other…


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