Archive for May 10th, 2023

Why MMT is needed

May 10, 2023

Lars Syll on Real World Economics Review Blog:

Few issues in politics and economics are nowadays more discussed — and less understood — than public debt. Many raise their voices to urge for reducing the debt, but few explain why and in what way reducing the debt would be conducive to a better economy or a fairer society. And there are no limits to all the — especially macroeconomic — calamities and evils a large public debt is supposed to result in — unemployment, inflation, higher interest rates, lower productivity growth, increased burdens for subsequent generations, etc., etc.

But the truth is that public debt is normally nothing to fear, especially if it is financed within the country itself (but even foreign loans can be beneficent for the economy if invested in the right way). Some members of society hold bonds and earn interest on them, while others have to pay the taxes that ultimately pay the interest on the debt. The debt is not a net burden for society as a whole since the debt cancels itself out between the two groups. If the state issues bonds at a low-interest rate, unemployment can be reduced without necessarily resulting in strong inflationary pressure. And the inter-generational burden is also not a real burden since — if used in a suitable way — the debt, through its effects on investments and employment, actually makes future generations net winners. There can, of course, be unwanted negative distributional side effects for the future generation, but that is mostly a minor problem since when our children and grandchildren repay the national debt these payments will be made to our children and grandchildren.

To both John Maynard Keynes and Abba Lerner, it was evident that the state has the ability to promote full employment and a stable price level – and that it should use its powers to do so. If that means that it has to take on debt and (more or less temporarily) underbalance its budget — so let it be! Public debt is neither good nor bad. It is a means to achieve two over-arching macroeconomic goals – full employment and price stability. What is sacred is not to have a balanced budget or run down public debt per se, regardless of the effects on the macroeconomic goals. If ‘sound finance,’ austerity, and balanced budgets mean increased unemployment and destabilizing prices, they have to be abandoned.

 

What Is Driving the Differences in Inflation Across U.S. Regions?

May 10, 2023

Elainia Gupta  and Leslie McGranahan of Chicago Fed in this paper analyse the differences in inflation across US regions:

There has been considerable concern in the United States over the elevated inflation rate. With inflation higher than it’s been in decades, it is natural to ask whether inflation is higher in certain areas of the country than in others and why. When talking, teaching, or learning about inflation, we often focus solely on national inflation.1 However, there are often important differences between regional and national inflation. For the calculation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the national inflation rate is an aggregation of the inflation rates of the various urban areas surveyed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). 

….

We find that price changes in the housing sector are the main driver of regional differences in inflation in the two time periods we investigate: January 2002–January 2023 and January 2019–January 2023. Although residents in different areas do have different purchasing patterns, we find that this plays only a small role in discrepancies in regional inflation. One exception to this is that lower transportation expenditure weights in the Northeast have contributed to lower inflation readings in the Northeast recently. While these differences are notable, we also observe that inflation across regions tends to move together and that in all four Census regions, inflation rates have been far higher in recent years than in previous periods. 


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