Archive for January, 2024

Does FinTech Increase Bank Risk Taking?

January 31, 2024

Selim A Elekdag, Drilona Emrullahu and Sami Ben Naceur in this IMF paper:

Motivated by its rapid growth, this paper investigates how FinTech activities influence risk taking by financial intermediaries (FIs). In this context, this paper revisits an ongoing debate on the impact of competition on financial stability: on one side, it is argued that greater competition encourages greater risk taking (competition-fragility hypothesis), while the other side of the debate asserts that more competition can increase financial stability (competition-stability hypothesis).

Using a curated databased covering over 10,000 FIs and global FinTech activities, we find a robust relationship whereby greater FinTech presence is associated with heightened risk taking by FIs, offering support for the competition-fragility hypothesis. However, the inclusion of bank-, industry-, and country-specific characteristics can alter this relationship.

Importantly, there is suggestive evidence indicating that in certain cases, greater FinTech presence may be associated with less FI risk taking amid stronger domestic institutions. Notwithstanding the relevance for policy, this paper presents a novel framework that may help reconcile some of the conflicting results in the literature which have found supportive evidence for each of the two competing hypotheses.

 

Government-Sponsored Mortgage Securitization and Financial Crises

January 31, 2024

Wayne Passmore and Roger Sparks in this Fed paper:

This paper analyzes a model of the mortgage market, considering scenarios with and without government-sponsored mortgage securitization. Conventional wisdom says that securitization, by fostering diversification and creating a “safe” asset in the form of mortgage-backed security (MBS), will reduce risk and enhance liquidity, thereby mitigating financial crises.

We construct a strategic-game framework to model the interaction between the securitizer and banks.

In this framework, the securitizer initiates the process by setting the MBS contract terms, which includes the guaranteed rate and the criterion that qualifies a mortgage for securitization. The bank then selects which qualifying mortgages to exchange for the MBS.

Our investigation leads to a key result: government-sponsored securitization, somewhat counterintuitively, is more likely to exacerbate the severity and frequency of financial crises.

 

Role and Expectations of Directors of Urban Co-operative Banks: Upholding Governance and Professionalism with Capacity Buidling and Technology Upgradation

January 30, 2024

Swaminathan J, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India in this speech points to expectations from Directors of Urban Co-operative Banks:

9. Effective governance forms the foundational bedrock. For UCBs, the need for robust governance mechanisms is even more pronounced due to their unique position as community-centric entities. Transparent decision-making, accountability, and adherence to best practices are paramount. Only Boards whose members meet the standard of fit and proper in terms of age, relevant qualifications, experience and proven clean track record along with the right aptitude will be in a position to deliver the desired results.

10. As I mentioned earlier depositors are major stakeholders and banks should always ensure that their interests are safeguarded. Directors should see themselves as trustees of the depositors’ hard-earned savings. After all, it is their money which keeps the bank ticking. Encouraging depositors to become members can further enhance their sense of ownership and engagement in the institution’s welfare as well as improve the capital base of the bank.

11. A basic understanding of the bank’s financial statements is absolutely essential for a director. The UCBs should explain their accounts to their directors in detail, especially where the bank stands on important parameters such as capital adequacy, liquidity, asset quality and profitability. Further, the financial statements should be fully compliant with accounting standards. I would urge directors to carefully go through the auditor’s report and ascertain if it is qualified or clean. Please engage with the auditors to understand their observations and concerns.

12. Similarly, this understanding of finance is also relevant for laying down underwriting standards and assessing credit proposals. Directors should be mindful of build up of concentration in their credit portfolios and try to diversify the risk, while closely monitoring the large exposures. Credit decisions should be solely based on the merits of each case, free from any external influences or considerations. Extending loans to connected parties such as relatives of directors and senior management are not in consonance with statutes, regulations, and good governance practices. These should be avoided.

13. While assessing proposals for restructuring, banks should have assessed the viability and have reasonable certainty of repayment from the borrower as per the restructured terms. In the context of NPAs, UCBs with assets in excess of ₹1,000 crore are already required to have system-based asset classification and Directors should ensure that the system has been implemented with a proper policy for any manual overrides over system-based classification.

14. Directors also bear the responsibility of exercising vigilance regarding their banks’ adherence to various statutory and regulatory requirements. RBI inspection reports should be discussed in the Board threadbare, and the observations should be suitably addressed in a timely manner. Further, for meaningful improvement the compliance given should be sustained. It should be ensured the same mistakes are not repeated. It would be useful for directors to seek regular updates from the bank on important RBI circulars and instructions. This approach not only reinforces the Board’s oversight role but also contributes to a robust regulatory compliance framework.

15. I would also urge UCBs to have a good vigilance system, effective internal audit and fraud detection mechanisms in place. When frauds occur, the bank should promptly report to the regulator and other concerned authorities. Root causes should be suitably addressed. There should be zero tolerance towards acts of malfeasance.

 

The economic consequences of political pressure on the Federal Reserve

January 29, 2024

Prof Thomas Drechsel of University Of Maryland in this piece:

Politicians often interfere with central banks, but it is not clear how to measure such political pressure systematically and therefore difficult to quantify its economic consequences. This column uses archival records to build a dataset of personal interactions between US presidents and Federal Reserve officials between 1933 and 2016, and isolates personal interactions that reflect political pressure and do not take place for other reasons. The results suggest that political pressure strongly and persistently raises inflation and inflation expectations but has little impact on economic activity.

How well do people understand central banks’ inflation targets? Evidence from Australia

January 25, 2024

Madeleine McCowage and Peter Rickards in this RBA bulletin article tries to figure whether people know/understand inflation targets:

This article has presented new descriptive findings about knowledge of the Bank’s inflation target and inflation expectations in the Australian community. The data show that overall knowledge of the Bank’s objectives is limited, but in line with overseas estimates. Males, as well as individuals who were more engaged with economic news, typically reported much more ‘anchored’ inflation expectations than others. Individuals with higher levels of economic literacy (which itself is related strongly to sex and previous education) or with closer-to-accurate responses for the Bank’s inflation target question also reported much more anchored inflation expectations. These results speak to the importance of simple, targeted communication from central banks so that the public can better understand their objectives and policy decisions – and thereby build greater trust in these institutions (Christelis et al 2020).

Future research could seek to understand the barriers to people’s understanding of economic topics. Is it that the public simply does not understand concepts like inflation? If so, is this because material on these topics – from the Bank or the media – is typically pitched at a level that is too technical for the community to grasp? Is the material lacking clarity? Is formal education on these topics lacking? Or do individuals not realise how inflation and/or monetary policy outcomes affect them, so they do not engage with such issues given they have scarce time to process the available information (so-called ‘rational inattention’ (Reis 2006))? There could be many reasons behind these results and, in turn, many ways to respond. A good place to start in cultivating a greater awareness of the inflation target and more informed inflation expectations would appear to be encouraging engagement with economic news and articulating the benefits of understanding economics.

The results are hardly surprising. One would have been surprised if the people understood the inflation targets.

Finances of Panchayati Raj Institutions

January 25, 2024

RBI releases its first report on Finances of Panchayati Raj Institutions. This is quite something:

Today, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released its Report titled “Finances of Panchayati Raj Institutions”. Drawing upon data on 2.58 lakh Panchayats for the years 2020-21 to 2022-23, it presents an assessment of their finances and their role in India’s socio-economic development.

Highlights:

    • Panchayats’ own sources of revenue are limited, mainly property taxes, fees, and fines – around 95 per cent of their revenues take the form of grants from higher levels of government, restricting their spending ability that is already hampered by delays in the constitution of State Finance Commissions.
    • There are sharp inter-state variations in the devolution of powers and functions to Panchayats, with states having higher devolution levels exhibiting better outcomes in health, education, infrastructure development and, in recent years, water supply and sanitation.
    • An assessment of the fiscal health of Panchayati Raj Institutions (PRIs) is challenging due to the uneven availability of data on their revenues and expenditures, driving home the point that the provision of these data in standardised formats would enhance fiscal transparency and accountability and also contribute to their empowerment.

Artificial intelligence in central banking

January 25, 2024
Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo, Sebastian Doerr, Leonardo Gambacorta and Bruno Tissot in this BIS paper:
  • Central banks have been early adopters of machine learning techniques for statistics, macro analysis, payment systems oversight and supervision, with considerable success.
  • Artificial intelligence brings many opportunities in support of central bank mandates, but also challenges – some general and others specific to central banks.
  • Central bank collaboration, for instance through knowledge-sharing and pooling of expertise, holds great promise in keeping central banks at the vanguard of developments in artificial intelligence.

 

Is global economy ready for AI?

January 24, 2024

My new article  in Deccan Herald on how AI is likely to pose several challenges to labor markets in economies.

Why Has U.S. Stock Ownership Doubled Since the Early 1980s? Equity Participation Over the Past Half Century

January 24, 2024

John V. Duca and Mark Walker in this Dallas Fed paper look at rising stock ownership in US:

The U.S. stock ownership rate doubled between 1983 and 2001 but remains below predictions of some equity participation models. Consistent with calibration studies by Heaton and Lucas (2000) and Gomes and Michaelides (2005), mutual fund costs and indicators of background labor risk are significantly related to stock ownership over 1964-2019. Coefficient estimates and continuous data on driving variables can be used to create a continuous proxy for stock ownership, which could help researchers gauge the effects of shocks that are transmitted via equity participation. Typically omitted asset transfer costs can help analyze other aspects of household portfolio behavior.

Big ECB balance sheet is a source of risk not stability

January 24, 2024

Jens Weidmann and Jörg Krämer in this OMFIF piece:

The European Central Bank’s consolidated balance sheet is six times larger than before the 2007-08 financial crisis. Nevertheless, we are witnessing calls for euro area central banks to maintain large balance sheets, with considerable excess liquidity in banking markets, and not completely wind down their large-scale holdings of government and corporate bonds.

Crisis measures would then become permanent. Banks, corporates and sovereigns would be – at least partially – shielded from the salutary discipline of market pressures. Moreover, such a policy could endanger the ECB’s independence. This confirms the concerns of those who warned at the start of the bond-buying programmes that they would be risky and difficult to exit.

A Teacher Writes to Students Series (13): Linear, Non-Linear Business

January 24, 2024

The thirteenth article in the amazing series. Wish teachers wrote like Prof Annavajhula J C Bose.

Linear, Non-Linear Business
By Annavajhula J C Bose, PhD
Department of Economics, SRCC, DU (more…)

Complementary Currencies and Liquidity: The Case of CocaBase Money

January 23, 2024

In Colombia, coca paste is used as a currency.

As the government nears a historic peace deal with the rebels of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the nation’s authorities are struggling to tame an increase in farming of coca, the raw material used to make cocaine.

In the Guyabero Region, where many people work on coca plantations, locals barter coca paste to buy groceries at the local shop.

Cristian Frasser and Lucie Lebeau look at the cocabase as a complementary currency in this interesting paper:

In coca-growing villages of Colombia, where pesos are scarce, coca-base is not only used as the main input for cocaine production—it also acts as a complementary currency (CC), circulating locally as a medium of exchange for day-to-day transactions. This paper provides a clear rationale for the economically-motivated adoption of a CC in a small open economy underprovided with official currency. An equilibrium currency shortage arises endogenously in our model, whereby shocks to the local supply of currency have a real impact on local trade and welfare.

We show how a CC can mitigate the underprovision of liquidity and derive general insights relating the CC’s characteristics to its ability to supplement the official currency.

In an application, we quantify the unintended consequences of various anti-narcotic policies pursued by the Colombian government on liquidity provision in coca-growing villages and identify the least-harmful policy tools given the policy objectives at stake.

 

The experience of war shapes communities and future wars

January 23, 2024

Humanity fights wars hoping to put an end to wars. But what follows is more wars.

Felipe Carozzi, Edward Pinchbeck and Luca Repetto in this voxeu article discuss how WWI experiences shaped WWII:

Countries currently involved in active warfare – Ukraine, Russia, and Israel most prominently – have launched intense mobilisation campaigns to expand their armies. This column examines what compels ordinary men and women to fight. Specifically, the authors study how the memorialisation of British soldiers who died in WWI affected civic capital in the communities they came from, and whether that spirit shaped the behaviour of soldiers in WWII. Subsequent generations of soldiers from those communities were more likely to also give their lives in battle, and to be commended with military honours.

Ends versus Means: Kantians, Utilitarians, and Moral Decisions

January 22, 2024

Inflation in the eastern euro area: reasons and risks

January 22, 2024

Inflation outcomes differ across western and eastern euro area countries. While Inflation rose in both the regions it was much higher in eastern euro countries.

Matteo Falagiarda in this ECB blogpost discusses reasons:

Since 2021 inflation in euro area countries in central and eastern Europe (EACEE) has significantly outpaced that of the euro area as a whole.[1] The differentials have narrowed in recent months but remain high for core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices (Chart 1). If large cumulated inflation differentials persist in a monetary union like the euro area, they can lead to competitiveness losses. This, in turn, could stoke country-specific macroeconomic vulnerabilities, such as deteriorating current accounts, higher external debt, downward demand pressures and rising unemployment. So understanding the sources of high inflation is important to deal with the associated risks.

…..

Part of the reason for the relatively high initial inflation in EACEE countries is their vulnerability to recent adverse global shocks: disruptions in global supply chains, supply-demand imbalances after the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the ramifications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These shocks hit all European economies. But their impact was stronger in EACEE countries, in part due to certain structural features of these economies (Chart 2).

First, EACEE countries typically display a higher energy intensity of production than the euro area average, mainly owing to larger energy-intensive sectors (i.e. manufacturing and transport) and fewer energy-efficient appliances and buildings.

Second, the share of energy and food in their consumption baskets is higher than the euro area average, which we often see in economies with lower average incomes.

Third, most of these economies depended heavily on Russian energy prior to the outbreak of the war, making them more vulnerable to energy supply disruptions.

Fourth, these countries are deeply integrated in global value chains (GVC), implying a larger impact of global supply bottlenecks.

 

Are food prices the ‘true’ core of India’s inflation?

January 19, 2024

Michael Debabrata Patra, Joice John and Asish Thomas George in this RBI Bulletin article:

Armed with these empirical findings, we circle  back to the question we posed to ourselves at the beginning of the paper: are food prices the ‘true’ core of India’s inflation? 

In the context of the recent experience of prolonged elevated food prices in India, this paper examines the core-like properties of food inflation, namely volatility, persistence, spillovers and cyclical sensitivity to understand its implications for monetary policy. Large and persistent changes in food prices have the potential to affect headline inflation lastingly, as prices of some components of the food group are seen to satisfy core inflation properties. Policy makers need to determine the sources and nature of food price shocks to minimise the risks of over-reacting to transitory shocks as well as of looking through persistent shocks.

Stock-Bond Correlation and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from India

January 19, 2024

Amit Pawar, Mayank Gupta, Palak Godara and Subrat Kumar Seet in this RBI Bulletin Article look at correlation between stocks and bonds. Also how macroeconomic developments impact stocks and bonds:

Modern portfolio theory and portfolio optimisation aims to maximise overall returns within an acceptable level of risk. Analysing asset correlations play an important role in achieving this objective. Negatively correlated assets act as a hedge against each other and protect the overall portfolio from extensive drawdowns during periods of high volatility.

An analysis of stock-bond correlation can thus play an important role in asset allocation decisions as these are two of the most important asset classes. This study investigates how different macroeconomic regimes interact with stock-bond correlations in India.

It is observed that spells of negative correlation are relatively ephemeral in India compared to episodes of positive correlation. Sentiments of risk aversion in financial markets can switch correlation from positive to negative. A moderate inflationary environment contiguous with expansion in output is associated with positive stock-bond correlation. 

Harmonisation of regulations applicable to Housing Finance Companies (HFC) and Non-Banking Finance Companies (NBFCs)

January 18, 2024

In 2019, the government of India transferred  Regulation of HFCs from National Housing Bank (NHB) to Reserve Bank.

Given the two different set of regulations for HFCs and NBFCs, the RBI decided to gradually bring HFCs into similar regulation as NBFCs. The first such step is to bring deposit taking HFCs as NBFCs:

Currently, HFCs accepting public deposits are subject to more relaxed prudential parameters on deposit acceptance as compared to NBFCs. Since the regulatory concerns associated with deposit acceptance is same across all categories of NBFCs, it has been decided to move HFCs towards the regulatory regime on deposit acceptance as applicable to deposit-taking NBFCs and specify uniform prudential parameters as prescribed under Master Direction – Non-Banking Financial Companies Acceptance of Public Deposits (Reserve Bank) Directions, 2016. Accordingly, the revised regulations as stated in subsequent paragraphs would be applicable to HFCs accepting or holding public deposits.

Very interesting to see how these regulations and institutions evolve.

Insurance corporations’ balance sheets, financial stability and monetary policy

January 18, 2024

Christoph Kaufmann, Jaime Leyva and Manuela Storz in this ECB paper discuss impact of monetary policy on Insurance companies:

The euro area insurance sector and its relevance for real economy financing have grown significantly over the last two decades.

This paper analyses the effects of monetary policy on the size and composition of insurers’ balance sheets, as well as the implications of these effects for financial stability.

We find that changes in monetary policy have a significant impact on both sector size and risk-taking.  Insurers’ balance sheets grow materially after a monetary loosening, implying an increase of the sector’s financial intermediation capacity and an active transmission of monetary policy through the insurance sector.

We also find evidence of portfolio re-balancing consistent with the risk-taking channel of monetary policy. After a monetary loosening, insurers increase credit, liquidity and duration risk-taking in their asset portfolios. Our results suggest that extended periods of low interest rates lead to rising financial stability risks among non-bank financial intermediaries.

Interviewing historical economists with the help of Generative AI

January 18, 2024

Fascinating paper by Luca De Benedictis of University of Macerata and Luiss University:

Generative AI, in particular Large Language Models (LLMs) are rarely used in historical fields, such as the philosophy of science, the history of scientific ideas or, more specifically, the history of economic thoughts. The paper presents the use of GPT-4 to simulate an interview with philosopher and economist John Stuart Mill. The paper contains the interview but also comments on the prompting strategy used in the interview, the reliability and the content of the answers.

This bit:

Question 1: Respond as if you were John Stuart Mill

Prompt: Good morning. I would ask you to answer my questions as if you were the famous economist and philosopher John Stuart Mill (1806-1873), based on his writings, his works and the publications of other scholars who have written about the thought of John Stuart Mill. Do you think that if I inform you through prompts you will be able to respond as if you were John Stuart Mill?

GPT-4: Good morning! Yes, I can answer as if I were John Stuart Mill, based on my knowledge of his writings and ideas. Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that I’m simulating a response based on my training, and it wouldn’t be exactly the same as if Mill himself responded. However, I will do my best to present his thoughts and opinions accurately. When you are ready, we can start our conversation.

Possibilities with AI..


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