Archive for February 19th, 2024

Economic history lessons from Roman emperor Diocletian

February 19, 2024

Boris Vujčić, Governor of the Croatian National Bank in this speech draws insights from  policies of Roman emperor Diocletian:

….the city in which we have gathered today – Split – was established by the Roman emperor Diocletian. He built his retirement palace here more than 1700 years ago. Textbooks usually mention the ruling of Diocletian in a rather negative context because of his brutal persecution of Christians. However, when it comes to governance, he was known as a great reformer. His political, administrative and economic policies helped Rome recover from the crisis the empire was going through in the third century.

One of his key structural reforms, and a successful one, was the reorganization of the Roman provinces.

And since quite a lot of money was needed to fund this reorganization, he also introduced a new tax that was a combination of the tax on agricultural land and the tax on individuals. The tax base was determined on the basis of a gigantic land register of the wealth of the entire Empire, and the tax was introduced throughout the Empire, including Italy which was until then free of land taxation1. So, 17 centuries ago Diocletian understood the importance of maintaining a sustainable fiscal position while financing reforms, and that it required boosting tax revenues through widening the tax base while making the tax system simpler and more equitable.

One of the toughest struggles Diocletian faced during his reign was hyperinflation. His predecessors, like many other rulers in history, had a bright idea for having more money by minting more coins. They were doing it by adding more worthless metals to the silver coins. As a result, the Roman currency was losing its value, and what followed was a period of hyperinflation. By the time Diocletian came to the throne, a barter economy had become the norm in many places. So, to combat inflation, Diocletian reintroduced new gold and silver coins of fixed design.

However, another one of Diocletian’s ideas to curb inflation was to set a cap on prices and wages. In year 301, he introduced his famous “Edict of maximum prices”. This was a document that attempted to list every item people bought regularly and its maximum price. The Edict covered all types of commodities, as well as occupations – in total about one thousand items. Here are some examples: crushed beans costed 100 denarii; uncrushed beans, 60 denarii; writing was 25 denarii for 100 lines of best quality writing and 20 denarii for second quality writing.2 But although the violation was punishable by death3, this measure was widely resisted, and goods disappeared from the markets creating an even larger black market, so the Edict was eventually revoked.

The Edict clearly ignored the economic law of supply and demand and ultimately proved to be unenforceable in the long run. Despite this, there were many similar attempts to control prices later through history. The lesson here is that price controls may be effective on a very narrow set of products and services and on a short-term basis, as price controls over a longer run distort market signals and lead to inefficient allocation of goods and services.

Interestingly enough, this lesson continues to be relevant even nowadays. Only a year or two ago, quite some countries introduced various forms of price controls in response to the global energy and food price shocks. That was probably the most pragmatic and feasible short-run policy measure at that moment. There are still some leftovers of price controls around, but we have to make sure not to overuse them. In addition, we used monetary policy, which did its part of the job, and it is still delivering. All in all, inflationary pressures have been abating, and in case we do not face some new shocks, inflation should gradually come down, and hopefully in a sustainable manner, to our medium-term target.

We know how important it is that monetary and fiscal policies play hand in hand in order to achieve that objective. We also know how important role monetary authority’s credibility plays in this regard. And we should never ever forget that credibility built over many decades can be wiped-out literally overnight. This is just one of the topics we will touch upon later today in our first panel.

Central Bank Digital Currency trilemma: price stability, efficiency, and monetary trust

February 19, 2024
Harald Uhlig in this new NBER paper says that CBDC issuance leads to trilemma for central banks:

Why Australia’s last generation of economic reformers have been speaking on the poor state of Austrlian economy?

February 19, 2024

Gareth Hutchens writes on abc.net.au that Australia’s last generation of true economic reformers are worried and speaking over state of economy:

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Ensuring MSP for farmers through ‘put options’

February 19, 2024

I read this interesting article in Business Line by Subramani Ra Mancombu.

The article informs us about how farmers could use put options to get minimum prices. Instead of asking for Minimum Support Prices, they should ask the governemnt to pay option premiums. The article also discusses that NCDEX has been running pilot projects with farmer producer organisations (FPOs) on put options.

Arun Raste, MD of NCDEX in a 2022 article dicusses about farmers using put options:

Realising constraints of farmers, the government promoted Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) that can integrate farmers into groups to bring know-how and scale to access input services as also markets. FPOs have been successfully using futures contract to hedge price risk.

Since 2016, over 400 FPOs, representing over 10 lakh farmers used futures contracts to hedge price risk in 18 commodities. However, futures contracts require upfront margins and daily mark-to-market (MTM) margin maintenance. Moreover, when FPOs (sell) hedge price risk through futures contract, their sell-price gets capped. Hence, they miss the gains in case the price moves up.

Being a progressive marketregulator, Sebi has allowed stock exchanges to launch ‘options in goods’ in the derivatives that provide a settlement mechanism based on the spot price of the underlying commodity and open positions convert into physical delivery at expiry.

….

The Put options will likely cost much less to the government as compared to MSP. From the government’s perspective, other major benefit of the Put options intervention is that price risk is transferred from the FPOs to the market participants who are willing to assume the risk for a premium. The government will save further on the cost of procurement, carry cost, wastages and investment in warehouse and related infrastructure.

Put options for FPOs can serve as a tool for the government to explore how marketbased instruments can be adopted at national level to make farmers Atmanirbhar. It would be ideal for the government to earnestly begin use of Put options for oilseed and pulses.

NCDEX also has interesting reports/papers on importance of commodity derivatives for Indian agriculture.

The humble repo turns 25

February 19, 2024

In April 2024, LAF Repo turns 25.

My article in Financial Express on how the humble LAF Repo has become the all powerful interest rate.

Karnataka Bank@100: Small is Beautiful

February 19, 2024

Over the weekend on 18 Feb 2024, Karnataka Bank turned 100 years.

I wrote an article in Business Standard celebrating the centenary. Clip of the article is here.


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