Archive for November, 2024

Rest in Peace Prof Amiya Kumar Bagchi

November 29, 2024

What a sad day! Prof Amiya Kumar Bagchi is no more.  I learnt so much about researching and writing on banking history from him and Dr Thingalaya (who passed away in 2019).

Prof Bagchi’s work on SBI’s history is one of its kind: detailed and thorough. He explained the pains he had to undertake to do build history of SBI in this annual lecture at Godrej Archives.

We aren’t really good at preserving history:

Let me first begin by expressing my heartfelt thanks to the Godrej Archives and their moving spirits Mrs. Pheroza Godrej and Mr.  Jamshyd Godrej. While I cannot claim the credit for creating the archives of the State Bank of India, I had a lot to do with the attempt to preserve the documents and to rescue them from destruction. I feel very strongly about the importance of archives as I feel archives will outlast us all, and succeeding generations will use them and know the real history of India. I am therefore very pleased that I have been invited by a serious institution that has set up a properly maintained archives.

Unlike the Chinese – inheritors of another old civilization – Indians have been extremely remiss in not preserving their history. In recent times (for the last 200-300 years) business history has been extremely important for understanding the conditions of living in every country. A large part of modern India’s history is connected with the development of business communities and business houses, but very few business houses have attempted to set up their archives. That is yet another reason why this initiative of the house of Godrej gladdens my heart.

SBI’s history:

My association with the State Bank’s records started when I was asked by Mr. R.K. Talwar, the then Chairman of the State Bank of India, to write the history of the bank. As soon as I agreed to do this, I realised that it was a tremendous job, because the State Bank  f India (SBI) is an integration of several of its colonial and native banks.

…..

By 1984, I had finished writing the first volume of the history, which came altogether to nearly 1,200 printed pages. It took about eight
years to put that first volume together. In fact, one of the complaints very often voiced by some of the senior management of the SBI
was that I was taking too long a time to write the history of the State Bank. But the point was that during those years I began collecting
SBI documents from all over India, and many of them were needed to write the first volume. Under the directorship of Mr. Talwar and his successor, Mr. P.C.B. Nambiar; the State Bank of India had put at my disposal their officers for research assistance.

Four History Cells of the SBI were set up, in Bombay, Calcutta, Madras and Delhi – The Imperial Bank’s original headquarters had been in Calcutta. It was shifted to Bombay when the bank was nationalised. Madras had been the headquarters of the Bank of Madras.

One cell in Delhi was needed because the National Archives was located there. And they put very good officers at my disposal. One of them, Shri Abhik Ray, has continued from almost the very beginning of the work, and is now looking after both the State Bank of India Archives and the writing of the later volumes of the history of the State Bank of India. Without the cooperation of these very dedicated officers, I could not have done anything.

There were earlier attempts to do SBI history and release it on 1976 to mark centenary of 1876 Act. However, it could not be done. So Prof Bagchi was asked to do it:

I realised that even to come up to 1876 of the bank’s history within a year was impossible. There were three separate banks whose proceedings I had to consult. The Bank of Bengal had not only  directors’ proceedings but also daily proceedings, which had to be analysed to find out how the directors and the managers took the decisions. These should be really good material for further study for all future historians of Indian banking and finance. The proceedings of the Bank of Madras also had survived. In the case of Bank of Bombay we were up against a problem because the proceedings of the old Bank of Bombay, which collapsed in 1867, were lost. So we had to rebuild the whole history through the work in the Maharashtra State Archives and National Archives. We also had assistants in London doing some of that work.

So in the first phase there were in fact five sets of proceedings – three sets of the three banks which survived, one set which had vanished which had to be re-constructed from the archival materials and the fifth was the daily committee proceedings of the Bank of Bengal. Then there were the branch records, because from 1861 the three banks began opening branches. We managed to collect valuable materials from other branches with great effort, as the documents had not been preserved.  

Lots of records were destroyed earlier and later as well. Read the whole lecture for his trials to save records!

Finally, he had to struggle to set up SBI archives:

My work ended in 1997 with the history of the founding of the Imperial Bank. …. I started to persuade the Bank management to formally set up archives. Mr. D.N. Ghosh, who was the SBI Chairman at the time the The Presidency Bank and the Indian Economy 1876-1914 (1989) was published, wrote in his Forward that SBI Archives should be set up. However, after his departure, for several years this proposal hung fire. And in fact there was an attempt to move some of therecords to Hyderabad, where the State Bank had a bankers’ training college for its officers. But the trouble was that there was nobody in Hyderabad to look after these records. Nobody wanted to look after them. Again we had a lot of trouble getting them back to Calcutta. Formally the foundation stone of the archives was laid in 1997 by Mr. P.G. Kakodkar, the then Chairman of the SBI and the Finance Minister of the Government of West Bengal Mr. Asim Dasgupta, an ex-student of mine.

Tragedy of being an economic/bank/business historian.

Travel Well Sir!

Inequalities are at the core of the monstrous dramas that are unfolding in front of us today

November 29, 2024

Amitav Ghosh’s acceptance speech on acceptance of the Erasmus Prize:

We are, in other words, in a moment of multiple intersecting crises and transitions – of geopolitics, financial structures, and, perhaps most importantly, of environmental and ecological regimes that are slowly but surely pushing the planet towards catastrophe. No wonder then that one of the most often repeated quotations of our time is Antonio Gramsci’s famous aphorism: “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.”

That is where we find ourselves today, living through a time of monstrous anomalies, when exterminatory violence, like that which depopulated the Banda Islands, can play out on live television; a time when it is possible to speak of the deaths of certain people, but not of others; a time when entire cities can be swept away by flash floods while the world carries on as usual; a time when environmental activists receive longer jail sentences than corporate criminals; when UN  forums for climate change negotiations turn into markets for selling oil and gas.

Even Antonio Gramsci could not have imagined the full extent of the abnormality of our era, because he lived in a simpler time when the most dangerous monsters were purely political creatures, like fascists. What is distinctive about our time is that its monsters consist not only of political extremists of all kinds, but also of weather events that could not have been conceived of in Gramsci’s lifetime: supercharged storms, megadroughts, catastrophic rain-bombs and the like. Back then these monsters, had they appeared, would have been considered ‘natural’ phenomena or acts of God. But knowing what we now know about the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in intensifying climate disasters, it is no longer possible to cling to the fiction of a strict division between the natural and the political: it is clear now that wildfires, rain-bombs and the like are also deeply political creatures in that they are the by-products of historical processes that have hugely benefited a small minority of human beings at the expense of the great majority of the world’s population.

These inequalities are at the core of the monstrous dramas that are unfolding in front of us today: what we are witnessing is nothing other than an epochal struggle between those who are intent on preserving their historical advantages, and those who are not only determined to resist but now also have the means to do so.  And since those historical advantages, as well as the means to resist, are greatly dependent on the use of fossil fuels, the result is a spiraling double helix that will continue to generate more and more monstrously anomalous events, through processes that are neither exclusively political nor environmental, but both at once.

😦

Civil society, beyond markets and states: Tracking 100 years of economic research

November 29, 2024

Samuel Bowles, Wendy Carlin and Sahana Subramanyam in this voxeu research track 100 years of economic research:

Commentary on the 2024 US elections included the Democratic Party’s failure to connect with issues of community, place, family, religion, and identity. This column presents evidence from research papers published in the top economics journals since 1900 showing that half a century ago, economists took a little noticed turn towards precisely these topics. The authors document this shift and show that it was associated with novel empirical methods including experiments, large data sets, and an increasing focus on social norms and strategic interactions – including the exercise of power.

A decade of low interest rates: impact on profitability of Swiss banks

November 29, 2024

Jayson Danton and Terhi Jokipii in this SNB paper:

We analyse the impact of interest rates on Swiss banks’ profitability. Our assessment is based on annual data on individual bank balance sheets and income statements in a standard panel regression setting for a sample of domestically focused commercial banks. We find that net interest rate margins (NIM) and return on assets (ROA) exhibit different sensitivities to market interest rate levels and highlight the non-linear effect of compressed liability margins on NIM.

In addition, we show that initial bank characteristics affect the link between falling interest rates and profitability. However, bank characteristics that amplify/alleviate NIM pressure from falling interest rates differ from those that affect ROA pressure. Furthermore, banks have taken measures to safeguard profitability: (i) with respect to risk-taking, all banks increased their exposure to rising interest rates by increasing their asset durations.

Moreover, banks that started with lower mortgage ratios increased these ratios considerably, particularly during the second half of the sample period (2015-2019); and (ii) Some banks actively worked to curb deposit growth when other sources of funding became relatively cheaper.

Overall, these adjustments have helped alleviate the downward pressure of falling interest rates on bank profitability.

100 years of NY Fed at Liberty Street: Understanding changes in technology

November 28, 2024

New York Federal Reserve has completed 110 years of its existence (basically entire Federal Reserve System) and 100 years at its Liberty

John Williams , President of NY Fed reflects in this speech:

It’s wonderful to see so many of our alumni joining us today as we celebrate the 110th anniversary of the New York Fed—and the centennial of our Liberty Street home.

Buildings tell stories. And this unique building—made of sandstone and limestone, with vaulted ceilings and a gold vault in the basement—has much to say about where we’ve been, where we are, and where we’re going.

It stood as a beacon of strength during crises: Black Thursday, Black Monday, 9/11, the Global Financial Crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. And it’s witnessed remarkable change—in the global economy and financial markets, in technology and the ways we work, and, as you see in the photos, in hair styles and office attire.

But just as 33 Liberty Street kept its distinctive stone exterior as glass skyscrapers grew around it, our dedication to the mission of serving the American public has remained constant.

And throughout our history, our ability to be at the forefront of anticipating, adapting, and acting in a fast-changing world has helped us ensure the strength of the U.S. economy and the stability of the global financial system.

Tracking tech changes over 100 years:

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The Swiss repo market at 25 – a success story for the financial centre and the Swiss National Bank

November 28, 2024

I wrote this piece in Financial Express on 25 years of Humble Repo in India.

Humble Repo completes 25 years in Switzerland too! Petra Tschudin and Thomas Moser of SNB in this speech:

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Humpty Dumpty and Indian Business

November 28, 2024

As one is watching the comedies and tragedies unfold in the India business story, one nursery rhyme comes to mind:

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall.
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.
All the king’s horses and all the king’s men
Couldn’t put Humpty together again.

Who could have imagined, that a nursery rhyme written in 1882 will go onto explain state of business in India in 2024!

The Economics of Net Zero Banking

November 27, 2024

Real reason Trump won: Role of right wing media

November 27, 2024

Michael Tomasky in New Republic says no one is talking about the main reason behind Trump victory: right wing media:

I’ve had a lot of conversations since Tuesday revolving around the question of why Donald Trump won. The economy and inflation. Kamala Harris didn’t do this or that. Sexism and racism. The border. That trans-inmate ad that ran a jillion times. And so on.

These conversations have usually proceeded along lines where people ask incredulously how a majority of voters could have believed this or that. Weren’t they bothered that Trump is a convicted felon? An adjudicated rapist? Didn’t his invocation of violence against Liz Cheney, or 50 other examples of his disgusting imprecations, obviously disqualify him? And couldn’t they see that Harris, whatever her shortcomings, was a fundamentally smart, honest, well-meaning person who would show basic respect for the Constitution and wouldn’t do anything weird as president?

But this line of analysis requires that we ask one more question. And it’s the crucial one: Why didn’t a majority of voters see these things? And understanding the answer to that question is how we start to dig out of this tragic mess.

The answer is the right-wing media. Today, the right-wing media—Fox News (and the entire News Corp.), Newsmax, One America News Network, the Sinclair network of radio and TV stations and newspapers, iHeart Media (formerly Clear Channel), the Bott Radio Network (Christian radio), Elon Musk’s X, the huge podcasts like Joe Rogan’s, and much more—sets the news agenda in this country. And they fed their audiences a diet of slanted and distorted information that made it possible for Trump to win.

I dont follow US media at all but there is just such a similar story playing out in India. The widely famed and named “godi media” or lapdog media has played a massive role in misinformation and disinformation. Instead of playing the role of the fourth pillar of the society it has destroyed the very foundations of the societal fabric.

Supply side shocks upend macro policymaking

November 27, 2024

My new piece in moneycontrol on rising number and intensity of supply shocks and what it means for macro policy.

75th annivesary of Constitution Day: Rereading wise and prophetic words of Dr. B.R. Ambedkar

November 26, 2024

India adopted its Constitution on 26th November 1949, marking 75th anniversary of Constitution Day on 26 Nov 2024 (today).

We usually read the Preamble to the Constitution each time anything about Constitution comes up. We should also make it a point to always read Dr Ambedkar’s final speech before presenting us the Constitution.

He had two anxieities. First, on India remaining independent given infighting amidst own people. Second, on Indian democracy.

On India remaining independent:

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Scott Bessent nomination as US Treasury secretary: Handed a poisoned chalice?

November 26, 2024

Mark Sobel of OMFIF on Scott Bessent’s appointment US Treasury secretary:

Scott Bessent seems overjoyed at his nomination for US Treasury secretary. But he’s perhaps being handed a poisoned chalice. When he leaves office, he may rue the day he became the 79th Treasury secretary as the inconsistencies and ill-conceived thrust of President-elect Donald Trump’s economic policies generate huge fallout, catching up with the US and Bessent’s reputation and tenure.

The Treasury secretary is the administration’s chief economic spokesperson, representing the US globally on economic and financial affairs in fora such as the G7, G20, International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Bessent will play a leading role in selling Trump 2.0 policies to Capitol Hill and internationally.

The problems won’t hit immediately but the challenges over time could become overwhelming.

 

Multilateral Development Banks united to end violence against women??

November 26, 2024

Yesterday marked International Day for Ending Violence against Women. Talk about a day which is just full of oxymorons! Only humans can be violent against someone who gives life to the very humanity and then create a day!

Anyways, this statement from European Bank for Recostruction and Development caught my eye:

Joint Statement of the Asian Development Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Caribbean Development BankCouncil of Europe Development Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, European Investment Bank, Inter-American Development BankIslamic Development BankNew Development Bank and World Bank Group on the occasion of the International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women

Gender-Based Violence (GBV) remains pervasive across the globe.  Although 189 countries are party to the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW), one in three women globally experience physical or sexual intimate partner violence in their lifetime. Women face the risk of physical, sexual, psychological, economic and legal violence in many aspects of their lives, including at home, and in public spaces such as transportation, schools, and the workplace.  Cases of cyberviolence are increasing exponentially across the world.

GBV is not only a violation of human rights, but also an impediment to growth, and the reduction of poverty and inequality. Workplace harassment and violence against women cost the global economy an estimated US$6 trillion annually. The high prevalence of GBV generates deep and long-lasting negative impacts. Direct victims of GBV often suffer physical and mental consequences that impact their short- and long-term well-being. Violence also impacts the economic stability of survivors by reducing their chances of stable employment, therefore increasing economic dependence on aggressors. Among pregnant women, GBV can also negatively impact the health of children at birth. Exposure to GBV during childhood can have lifelong effects on the educational outcomes of children and youth.

There is increasing evidence of the development potential that can be realised by eliminating violence against women and addressing gender inequalities to accelerate global economic growth.

The Asian Development Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Caribbean Development Bank, Council of Europe Development Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, European Investment Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank, New Development Bank and World Bank Group are well positioned to work with multisectoral stakeholders to prevent GBV, support survivors, and improve access to justice.

Acknowledging previous agreements, we commit to individually and collectively expand programs to eliminate violence in all aspects of our work. In line with our respective mandates, we commit to work together and in collaboration with other international organizations, governments, civil society and the private sector, prioritizing all, or some, of the following activities.

Well the intentions are highly welcome but how do you really deal with political masters who ultimately fund these institutions? With rise of strongmen as political heads across countries, ending violence on women is a distant dream. The biggest enemy of strongmen is women and they do everything to undermine their mere existence!

Deafening silence of Indian business leaders

November 26, 2024

My new piece in Deccan Herald on deafening silence of India’s business leaders on slipping corporate governance standards.

Tribute to the late former Finance Minister and Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, Tito Mboweni

November 25, 2024

Tito Mboweni played a very important role in South African politics. He acted as both Finance Minister and central bank governor at different times. He passed away recently.

A heartfelt tribute to Tito by the current SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago:

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r-g before and after the Great Wars 1507-2023

November 25, 2024

A Teacher Writes to Students Series (33): Social Realist Theatre vs. Economics Classroom

November 25, 2024

A Teacher Writes to Students Series (33): Social Realist Theatre vs. Economics Classroom
Annavajhula J C Bose, PhD
Department of Economics (Retd.), SRCC, DU  (more…)

Book Review -The Day I Became a Runner: A Women’s History of India through the Lens of Sport

November 25, 2024

How does one react to a book which completely surprises you? Sohini Chattopadhyay’s book on running particularly women runners is one such book. How does one react to a book on running after all? That too on as exotic a topic as women running?

Sample the abstract:

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Seasonality in Key Economic Indicators of India

November 22, 2024

Shivangee Misra, Anirban Sanyal and Sanjay Singh have this very useful paper summarising seasonality in Indian data:

This article provides estimates of seasonal factors of key economic indicators in India, analysing 78 monthly indicators across six sectors — monetary and banking, payment systems, prices, industrial production, merchandise trade, and services — along with 25 quarterly indicators. Latest estimates of seasonal factors (corresponding to 2023-24) are provided in the form of detailed tables.

Highlights:

    • Overall, seasonal pattern remains mostly stable across major economic variables although seasonal variations have become more pronounced across several indicators such as cash in hand and balances with the RBI, demand deposits, prices of major vegetables, industrial production, passenger vehicle sales, and merchandise exports.
    • CPI faces seasonal pressure from July to November, mainly driven by rising vegetable prices during the monsoon season, while fruit prices tend to peak in the summer months.
    • In industrial production, most items reach their highest levels in March, whereas consumer durables see a peak in October, coinciding with the festive season.
    • Both exports and imports also peak in March, with exports exhibiting more pronounced seasonal fluctuations compared to imports.
    • Quarterly data highlight increased seasonal variation in real GDP, especially in government expenditure, with agriculture showing the most significant seasonal effects. Capacity utilisation in manufacturing peaks in the January–March quarter, which also coincides with a rise in services exports.
    • Among the quarterly series, real GDP and GVA continue to record their seasonal peak during Q4. The seasonal variations in the national accounts aggregates have increased since the onset of the pandemic, even after adjusting for the pandemic-induced volatilities.

Very useful summary…

Deposit Insurance in the United States and Europe: A Tale of Two Unions

November 22, 2024

Insightful speech by FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg:

Today, I would like to talk about the experience with deposit insurance and bank resolution in our two unions, the European Union and the United States.  In particular, I will discuss key developments in the European Union and will draw some comparisons to the history of the system in the United States. 

This seems to me an especially timely topic since many jurisdictions are continuing to work on enhancing their deposit insurance systems and resolution preparedness in view of lessons learned from the 2023 banking turmoil. 


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