Archive for November 22nd, 2024

Seasonality in Key Economic Indicators of India

November 22, 2024

Shivangee Misra, Anirban Sanyal and Sanjay Singh have this very useful paper summarising seasonality in Indian data:

This article provides estimates of seasonal factors of key economic indicators in India, analysing 78 monthly indicators across six sectors — monetary and banking, payment systems, prices, industrial production, merchandise trade, and services — along with 25 quarterly indicators. Latest estimates of seasonal factors (corresponding to 2023-24) are provided in the form of detailed tables.

Highlights:

    • Overall, seasonal pattern remains mostly stable across major economic variables although seasonal variations have become more pronounced across several indicators such as cash in hand and balances with the RBI, demand deposits, prices of major vegetables, industrial production, passenger vehicle sales, and merchandise exports.
    • CPI faces seasonal pressure from July to November, mainly driven by rising vegetable prices during the monsoon season, while fruit prices tend to peak in the summer months.
    • In industrial production, most items reach their highest levels in March, whereas consumer durables see a peak in October, coinciding with the festive season.
    • Both exports and imports also peak in March, with exports exhibiting more pronounced seasonal fluctuations compared to imports.
    • Quarterly data highlight increased seasonal variation in real GDP, especially in government expenditure, with agriculture showing the most significant seasonal effects. Capacity utilisation in manufacturing peaks in the January–March quarter, which also coincides with a rise in services exports.
    • Among the quarterly series, real GDP and GVA continue to record their seasonal peak during Q4. The seasonal variations in the national accounts aggregates have increased since the onset of the pandemic, even after adjusting for the pandemic-induced volatilities.

Very useful summary…

Deposit Insurance in the United States and Europe: A Tale of Two Unions

November 22, 2024

Insightful speech by FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg:

Today, I would like to talk about the experience with deposit insurance and bank resolution in our two unions, the European Union and the United States.  In particular, I will discuss key developments in the European Union and will draw some comparisons to the history of the system in the United States. 

This seems to me an especially timely topic since many jurisdictions are continuing to work on enhancing their deposit insurance systems and resolution preparedness in view of lessons learned from the 2023 banking turmoil. 

NSE Enabling a Billion Dreams: Documentary and Coffeetable Book

November 22, 2024

NSE, National Stock Exchange has released a documentary of its history and a coffeetable book.


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