Archive for August, 2025

Central Bank of Mexico celebrates 100 years

August 29, 2025

Central Bank of Mexico is celebrating its 100th anniversary. It was established in Sep-1925.

Banco de México, which was created on September 1, 1925, was the pinnacle of a long-awaited aspiration by Mexicans. Its creation ended a long period of monetary instability and anarchy, dating back to the beginning of the XIX century, and during which a system of diverse issuing banks operated. Such system greatly deteriorated with the upsurge of the Mexican Revolution in 1910, which brought up distrust on banknotes and the downfall of the monetary system prevailing at that time.

Few will remember that the origins of the Mexican central bank date back to at least the beginning of the XIX century. As long ago as 1822, during the reign of Agustín de Iturbide, a project to create an institution that would be known as “Gran Banco del Imperio Mexicano” (the Great Bank of the Mexican Empire) with the power to issue banknotes was put forward.

At that time, in Europe, central banks began growing out of a natural progression in which retail banks gradually assumed functions that nowadays correspond solely to central banks. A similar process would have gone underway in Mexico around 1844, but, in the end, the idea embracing free competition between retail banks in the area of banknote issuance won acceptance and materialized.

With the demise of the Porfirian banking system during the Revolution, the issue was no longer whether there should be a monopoly or free competition in currency issuance, but rather the features of the Single Bank of Issue provided for in article 28 of the Constitution passed in 1917. The dilemma was whether to create a private bank or a government-controlled bank. Meeting in Querétaro, the founding members opted for the latter, although the Constitution states that only a “government-controlled bank” will be exclusively responsible for currency issuance.

Despite its creation being a constitutional aspiration, seven years passed by before the Single Bank of Issue finally came into being. During that time, several attempts to get the project started failed due to Treasury hardship. On repeated occasions, a shortage of public funds was the obstacle to the bank’s creation. Meanwhile, at the time, the thesis regarding the need for all countries to have a central bank was consolidating globally and was enclosed in a 1920 communiqué by the then influential League of Nations during the Brussels International Financial Conference.

 

Central banking manual for fighting crises: the need for split personalities

August 28, 2025

David Marsh of OMFIF in this article discusses central bank manual for fighting crises:

Patrick Honohan, governor of the Central Bank of Ireland from 2009 to 2015 – the seminal period of euro area sovereign debt upsets – is a central banker who almost literally grew up with economic and financial crises.

Honohan understands, all too well, the psychology of politics and markets. As a European Central Bank governing council veteran, and a long-standing professor of economics at Trinity College Dublin, he can unravel the intricacies with wit, subtlety and linguistic flair. His deftly written manual The Central Bank as Crisis Manager is required reading not just for officials whose nightly rest may be disturbed by incipient financial breakdown, but also for all those caught up in the aftermath.

….

Honohan’s principles for reaction may be of only limited practical significance for helping Powell and Cook face current challenges. Yet they merit thoughtful reflection. One of his most important points is that, once in crisis-fighting mode, central banks must adopt a set of policies and approaches outside their normal remit. In a professionally benevolent way, central bankers need to develop split personalities.

‘Normally thought of as staid, slow-moving, taciturn and organisationally aloof central banks have to behave quite differently when faced with an unfolding crisis. They must accelerate decision-making, change the style of communication, and prepare to work with other arms of the state.’

Achieving success in such cases, as Honohan recognises, is a matter of fine balance. To overcome the odds, central banks need to draw on reserves of skills and experience – and will unquestionably require a portion of luck. But a ‘quantum change’ in behaviour is crucial in ‘preventing a financial crisis from metastasising into a confidence-driven economic recession’. As Honohan notes, using a central bank’s balance sheet to provide liquidity and closely co-operate with the government, has clear implications for central bank’s vaunted (and somewhat well worn) independenc

Commercialisation over tradition: Jagannath Temple at Puri

August 28, 2025

Ankita Subudhi writes a brave article in TheIndiaForum:

The Puri Jagannath temple’s organic sanctity has been eroded by commercialisation, turning tradition into spectacle and control. Devotion has been reduced to regulated ritual, and the Rath Yatra now emphasises order over faith, with crowd management in 2025 failing to provide even basic care.
One could write similar articles for most iconic temples in India. It is startling how commerce and so called religious ecotourism is rapidly eroding the basic foundations of faith.

An AI-powered Tool for Central Bank research

August 28, 2025

Nicholas Gray, Finn Lattimore, Kate McLoughlin and Callan Windsor in this paper higlight how Reserve Bank of Australia is using AI in research:

In a world of high policy uncertainty, central banks are relying more on soft information sources to complement traditional economic statistics and model-based forecasts. One valuable source of soft information comes from intelligence gathered through central bank liaison programs – structured programs in which central bank staff regularly talk with firms to gather insights. This paper introduces a new text analytics and retrieval tool that efficiently processes, organises, and analyses liaison intelligence gathered from firms using modern natural language processing techniques. The textual dataset spans around 25 years, integrates new information as soon as it becomes available, and covers a wide range of business sizes and industries.

The tool uses both traditional text analysis techniques and powerful language models to provide analysts and researchers with three key capabilities: (1) quickly querying the entire history of business liaison meeting notes; (2) zooming in on particular topics to examine their frequency (topic exposure) and analysing the associated tone and uncertainty of the discussion; and (3) extracting precise numerical values from the text, such as firms’ reported figures for wages and prices growth.

We demonstrate how these capabilities are useful for assessing economic conditions by generating text-based indicators of wages growth and incorporating them into a nowcasting model. We find that adding these text-based features to current best-in-class predictive models, combined with the use of machine learning methods designed to handle many predictors, significantly improves the performance of nowcasts for wages growth. Predictive gains are driven by a small number of features, indicating a sparse signal in contrast to other predictive problems in macroeconomics, where the signal is typically dense.

The Birth of Modern Finance

August 28, 2025

Fatimah Khan writes about the birth of modern finance in this Richmond Fed article:

Since the 1950s, a series of theories and models have come to largely define financial and investment practices, transforming a trial-and-error practice into a quantitative academic field. Collectively, these innovations have become known as modern financial theory. If you have ever invested in an index fund or diversified your portfolio, as is the case for many Americans, you have benefited from modern financial theory.

These investment vehicles are often used as part of a passive investment strategy, wherein one buys and holds a diversified mix of assets, usually including both bonds and stocks, over a long period of time with the goal of approximating the average market return. This is a common way to invest savings for retirement and contrasts with active investment, which involves the more frequent purchase and sale of individual securities in pursuit of arbitrage opportunities. A 2021 Gallup survey of U.S. investors found that 71 percent preferred passive investment strategies over active ones to “maximize returns over the long term.” In many ways, modern financial theory laid the groundwork for such vehicles and passive strategies through frameworks for portfolio optimization, asset pricing, greater understanding of risk, and pricing options. How did these theories, which are so influential today, come about?

As the world rebuilt and recovered after World War II, private markets in the United States experienced a revitalization. Households, who had been saving diligently to support the war effort by purchasing Treasury war bonds, and institutional investors, such as pension funds, demanded new investment opportunities. At the same time, businesses rebuilding in the booming peace economy needed an influx of capital to expand, make investments, and meet consumer demand. This confluence of factors and the resulting market activity led to questions around how best to navigate both corporate and consumer finance. The consensus among investors at the time was that hiring investment advisors was a reasonably sure way to guarantee high returns. However, those advisors typically didn’t rely on scientific processes and models, but rather used rules of thumb to make decisions and manage the needs of their clients. As corporate treasurers and investment managers alike tried to improve their returns, a series of new and innovative economic and financial theories began to take shape.

Perry Mehrling, a historian of financial and economic theory at Boston University, explains that “usually, financial practice comes first, trying to solve a problem,” followed by theoretical innovation that aims to improve upon current techniques. When questions outside the scope of existing frameworks arise, new ideas are born of necessity. Mehrling says there were two main questions in this period: How to manage consumer investment, and how to manage corporate finance. Answering these questions would lead to the development of economic and financial theories with far-reaching ramifications.

Robinson Meets Roy: Monopsony Power and Comparative Advantage

August 26, 2025

Mark Bils, Bariş Kaymak, and Kai-Jie Wu in this NBER paper:

Research on labor markets is increasingly focused on the role of monopsony power, examining its impact on income inequality and labor’s allocation, as well as its implications for policy interventions, specifically minimum legal wages. While traditional approaches associate monopsony power with firm characteristics—especially a firm’s employment share—this paper proposes a novel perspective by attributing monopsony power to comparative advantage at the level of a worker-firm match.

Our study integrates Robinson’s (1933) model of non-competitive firm wage setting with  Roy’s (1951) model of worker comparative advantage. The reasoning is as follows. Monopsony power emerges when a firm faces an imperfectly elastic labor supply, implying the firm has workers it could employ at lower wages. The differential between wage received and wage required represents a rent for those inframarginal workers. The Roy model associates rents with a worker’s comparative advantage in their job, i.e., their productivity at their chosen job relative to alternatives. As a result, we can associate monopsony power in wage setting with workers who have a comparative advantage at their firm.

onetary Economics at 30: A Reexamination of the Relevance of Money in Cashless Limiting Monetary Economies

August 26, 2025

The M is missing by purpose in Monetary. In this NBER paper, Ricardo Lagos on relevance of money:

Jackson Hole 2025: AI breakthroughs are transforming industries, from healthcare to finance

August 26, 2025

The 2025 edition of Jackson Hole Conference concluded recently.  The theme was Labor Markets in Transition — Demographics, Productivity and Macroeconomic Policy.  The 2004 conference was also based on demographics.

It was interesting to see the conference inviting Ruth Porat, President and Chief Investment Officer of Google,  

Porat spoke about AI and how it transforoming the world of healthcare and finance. 

Adam Smith at 250

August 25, 2025

Michael Spence in Project Syndicate (HT: Prof A.J.C. Bose) :

Nearly 250 years ago, Adam Smith identified two potential constraints on economic specialization: the “extent of the market” and the inevitable risks. Today, the risk constraint is proving to be the more powerful, and another, more fundamental challenge to Smith’s model of specialization has emerged.

The risk is AI:

But Smith’s model of specialization may soon face an even more fundamental shift. Recall that it is based on the creation of pockets of specific knowledge and expertise that are not easily acquired or transferred. But generative AI models, among their many effects, now appear to be on course to deliver expertise in almost any area, to anyone who wants it, at very low cost.

A Teacher Writes to Students Series (51): Listen to Kolodko-4

August 25, 2025

A Teacher Writes to Students Series (51): Listen to Kolodko-4
Annavajhula J C Bose, PhD
Department of Economics (Retd.), SRCC, DU

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Do Global systemically important banks engage in window-dressing behavior?

August 19, 2025

Kamil Pliszka and Carina Schlam in this Bundesbank paper:

This paper examines whether global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) engage in window-dressing behavior to circumvent or reduce regulatory requirements, increasing vulnerability to economic shocks. Using a comprehensive global bank sample, we uncover evidence of such practices: G-SIBs reduce year-end exposures used for G-SIB capital buffer calculations, by roughly twice the magnitude of non-G-SIBs, and reverse these cuts early the next year. This pattern is strongest among G-SIBs that are near bucket thresholds or subject to high G-SIB capital surcharges.

 

Social Defaults and Plan Choice: The Case of Spousal Following

August 19, 2025

Tal Gross, Timothy Layton, Daniel Prinz & Julia Yates in this NBER paper choose how couples choose insurance. Simple: follow the partner!

We study how couples in the Medicare Part D program choose an insurance plan. Over 70 percent of enrollees choose the same plan as their spouse. Even among those with differing healthcare needs, well over half do so. Discrete-choice models suggest beneficiaries value being on the same plan as their spouse at over a thousand dollars per year. Using a regression-discontinuity design, we show that younger spouses disproportionately follow their older spouse’s plan choice. Joint plan choice contributes modestly to overall overspending, but increases costs substantially for the couples with different cost-minimizing plans.

A Tale of Two Transitions: Mobility Dynamics in China and Russia after Central Planning

August 18, 2025

Kristina Butaeva, Lian Chen, Steven N. Durlauf & Albert Park in this NBER paper:

Italy and the cost of unintelligible laws: 110 billion euros a year

August 18, 2025

Tommaso Giommoni, Luigi Guiso, Claudio Michelacci and Massimo Morelli in this voxeu post estimate costs of unintelligible laws in Italy:

Over the past 30 years, laws in Italy have become longer, more convoluted, and frequently unintelligible even to seasoned legal professionals. This column exploits variation in the ability of lower courts to interpret poorly drafted laws in alignment with Italy’s Supreme Court of Cassation to assess how legal uncertainty affects the local economy. The authors find that uncertainty discourages investment, hinders innovation, and stifles entrepreneurship, and that improving legislative quality to the level of the Constitution would raise today’s Italian GDP by almost 5%.

It will be interesting to estimate it for other countries too. The costs are likely to be larger in developing and emerging  countries.

Book Review: Wellbeing Science and Policy

August 13, 2025

Book Review: Wellbeing Science and Policy
Richard Layard and Jan-Emmanuel De Neve. 2023. Wellbeing Science and Policy. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-1-009-29892-6 Hardback.
Annavajhula J C Bose, PhD
Department of Economics (Retd.), SRCC, DU

(more…)

Who are the “bond vigilantes” on sovereign debt markets?

August 13, 2025

Pablo Anaya Longaric, Katharina Cera, Georgios Georgiadis and Christoph Kaufmann in this ECB blogpost:

Financial markets are sensitive to macroeconomic and political news, especially given the high debt levels in several euro area countries. On sovereign bond markets, investment funds – which invest the money of households, companies and others – have become key players. In some euro area countries, they hold as much as a quarter of outstanding government debt. So, when investment funds adjust their portfolios, they can have an impact on bond markets and, in turn, on the ability of governments to finance their budgets. That is why they are often referred to as “vigilantes” who discipline governments for what they consider to be unsustainable policy and enforce change.

Despite their large footprint in sovereign debt markets, it is not always clear what role investment funds play in generating market volatility and how they interact with other groups of investors in times of stress.

In this blog post, we summarise our recent research (Anaya Longaric et al., 2025), in which we dig deeper into the idea that investment funds are “vigilantes” and examine how they respond to stress in euro area sovereign bond markets. Specifically, we examine how investment funds adjust their holdings of euro area sovereign debt in comparison with other domestic and international investor groups, including banks, insurance companies and households. We find that investment funds do act as “vigilantes” as they account for most net sales of sovereign bonds in times of stress, while domestic households and insurance companies buy the bonds they sell.

Findings:

When we examine the drivers of this behaviour more closely, we find that investment funds sell the debt of countries under market pressure for two reasons. First, sovereign stress triggers large investor outflows from investment funds. If these outflows exceed the funds’ cash buffers, fund managers need to sell bonds to pay out their investors. Second, fund managers want to reduce the weight of these countries in their portfolios to reduce the risk of their investments. This means funds sell bonds whose default risk has increased and keep those they consider to be safer. So, in fact, both fund managers and their investors act as “vigilantes” on sovereign bond markets. Fund investors withdrawing their money triggers bond sales, but fund managers decide how portfolios are reshuffled – including how much of each country’s debt is sold.

 

Prospero Theory to Prosepct Theory: Shakespeare and Behavioral Economics

August 12, 2025

Interesting paper by Jim Leitzel of University of Chicago. He says many aspects of behavioral economics are found in Shakespeare:

Prospect theory, a mainstay model of behavioral economics, was designed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) to offer a better descriptive account of human decision making than that provided by rational choice theory — and in many instances, it seems to deliver on its originators’ goal. Descriptions of plausible human behavior, then, should generally accord well with the features of prospect theory. The writings of William Shakespeare — an acclaimed observer of humanity — provide a classic data set of human behavior that can be tested for its adherence to prospect theory. This paper explores Shakespeare’s works, finding that the main elements of prospect theory-reference point dependence, loss aversion, and asymmetric gain/loss risk preferences are well represented within the Shakespeare canon. A second branch of behavioral economics, that examining happiness or “subjective wellbeing,” also is reviewed in light of Shakespeare’s works. Finally, Adam Smith, another acclaimed observer of humanity (who lived a little bit closer to Shakespeare’s time than to ours), offers some parallel behavioral commentary, too.

🙂

There was this interesting thing that Adam Smith got the invisible hand metaphor from Shakespeare.

 

 

Mind the App: do European deposits react to digitalisation?

August 12, 2025

A team of ECB economists (Luisa Fascione, Beatrice Scheubel, Livio Stracca, Nadya Wildmann and Juan Ignacio Jacoubian) in this paper study the depositor response to digital banking:

The March 2023 banking turmoil has intensified discussions whether social media and the digitalisation of finance have become significant factors in driving severe deposit outflows. We introduce the concept of deposits-at-risk and utilize quantile regressions for disentangling determinants of stressed outflows at the lowest tail of the distribution. For a sample of large banks directly supervised by the ECB, our findings indicate that an increased use of online banking services leads to a small amplification of extreme deposit outflows, but this effect is not further exacerbated by the availability of a mobile banking app. Online banking use and availability of a mobile app do not have a causal effect on deposit volatility in normal times. Finally, social media are impactful only in idiosyncratic cases.

Continuity and Change in the Federal Reserve’s Perspective on Price Stability

August 12, 2025
David López-Salido  Emily J Markowitz and  Edward Nelson in this paper research statements by Fed leadership:
We examined statements made by Federal Reserve leadership since the early 1950s and established there has been considerable continuity in policymakers’ perceptions of the benefits of price stability. Policymakers have consistently contended that deviations from price stability give rise to greater cyclical instability, and they have also frequently suggested that potential output is significantly lowered by inflation. The recurrent support for price stability that comes through in these statements implies that it is invalid to interpret deviations from price stability in the U.S. economy as an indication that policymakers seek inflation.

Why Did Air Conditioning Adoption Accelerate Faster Than Predicted? Evidence from Mexico

August 11, 2025
Lucas W. Davis & Paul Gertler in this new NBER paper:
A common theme in the vast literature on climate change is the estimation of models using historical data to make predictions many decades into the future. Although there is a large and growing number of these types of studies, researchers rarely return later to check the accuracy of their predictions. In this paper, we perform such an exercise.
In Davis and Gertler (2015), we used household-level microdata from Mexico to predict future air conditioning adoption as a function of income and temperature.
Revisiting these predictions with 12 years of additional data, we find that air conditioning in Mexico has accelerated, significantly exceeding our predictions.
Neither errors in predicting income growth or rising temperatures, nor migration patterns, nor an overly restrictive model can explain the large prediction gap.  Instead, our results point to the failure to account for falling electricity prices and technological changes in air conditioner efficiency as key drivers of the prediction gap.
Interesting!

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