Archive for August 12th, 2025

Prospero Theory to Prosepct Theory: Shakespeare and Behavioral Economics

August 12, 2025

Interesting paper by Jim Leitzel of University of Chicago. He says many aspects of behavioral economics are found in Shakespeare:

Prospect theory, a mainstay model of behavioral economics, was designed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) to offer a better descriptive account of human decision making than that provided by rational choice theory — and in many instances, it seems to deliver on its originators’ goal. Descriptions of plausible human behavior, then, should generally accord well with the features of prospect theory. The writings of William Shakespeare — an acclaimed observer of humanity — provide a classic data set of human behavior that can be tested for its adherence to prospect theory. This paper explores Shakespeare’s works, finding that the main elements of prospect theory-reference point dependence, loss aversion, and asymmetric gain/loss risk preferences are well represented within the Shakespeare canon. A second branch of behavioral economics, that examining happiness or “subjective wellbeing,” also is reviewed in light of Shakespeare’s works. Finally, Adam Smith, another acclaimed observer of humanity (who lived a little bit closer to Shakespeare’s time than to ours), offers some parallel behavioral commentary, too.

🙂

There was this interesting thing that Adam Smith got the invisible hand metaphor from Shakespeare.

 

 

Mind the App: do European deposits react to digitalisation?

August 12, 2025

A team of ECB economists (Luisa Fascione, Beatrice Scheubel, Livio Stracca, Nadya Wildmann and Juan Ignacio Jacoubian) in this paper study the depositor response to digital banking:

The March 2023 banking turmoil has intensified discussions whether social media and the digitalisation of finance have become significant factors in driving severe deposit outflows. We introduce the concept of deposits-at-risk and utilize quantile regressions for disentangling determinants of stressed outflows at the lowest tail of the distribution. For a sample of large banks directly supervised by the ECB, our findings indicate that an increased use of online banking services leads to a small amplification of extreme deposit outflows, but this effect is not further exacerbated by the availability of a mobile banking app. Online banking use and availability of a mobile app do not have a causal effect on deposit volatility in normal times. Finally, social media are impactful only in idiosyncratic cases.

Continuity and Change in the Federal Reserve’s Perspective on Price Stability

August 12, 2025
David López-Salido ,  Emily J Markowitz and  Edward Nelson in this paper research statements by Fed leadership:
We examined statements made by Federal Reserve leadership since the early 1950s and established there has been considerable continuity in policymakers’ perceptions of the benefits of price stability. Policymakers have consistently contended that deviations from price stability give rise to greater cyclical instability, and they have also frequently suggested that potential output is significantly lowered by inflation. The recurrent support for price stability that comes through in these statements implies that it is invalid to interpret deviations from price stability in the U.S. economy as an indication that policymakers seek inflation.

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