Archive for September 16th, 2025

A Python Package to Assist Macroframework Forecasting: Concepts and Examples

September 16, 2025
Sakai Ando,  Shuvam Das and Sultan Orazbayev in this IMF paper discuss a python package to assist macro forecasting:
In forecasting economic time series, statistical models often need to be complemented with a process to impose various constraints in a smooth manner. Systematically imposing constraints and retaining smoothness are important but challenging. Ando (2024) proposes a systematic approach, but a user-friendly package to implement it has not been developed. This paper addresses this gap by introducing a Python package, macroframe-forecast, that allows users to generate forecasts that are both smooth over time and consistent with user-specified constraints. We demonstrate the package’s functionality with two examples about forecasting US GDP and fiscal variables.

Lifespan of royal bloods between 1669 and 2022

September 16, 2025

Interesting research by Alberto Batinti, Joan Costa-i-Font and Vasuprada Shanda on voxeu:

Social status can have a long-lasting influence on people’s health and longevity. This column explores the lifespan of royals – whose status is determined by hereditary rules – between 1669 and 2022. While royals still live longer than their average subject, the gap has shrunk significantly since the 19th century. Even today, monarchs consistently outlive their siblings and consorts, which may reflect the health benefits of positive stress (or eustress) associated with a strong sense of purpose and control. Reducing health inequality may require tackling social hierarchies that influence wellbeing.

The database is drawn from royals living across European countries.

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