Archive for September 29th, 2025

Political polarization in Europe

September 29, 2025

Marina Diakonova, Corinna Ghirelli and Javier J. Pérez in this Bank of Spain paper:

Political polarization—broadly defined as the growing ideological distance between political parties or their supporters—has become an increasingly prominent feature of both U.S. and European political discourse. While it is often associated with legislative dysfunction, existing measures tend to conflate polarization with its consequences.

This paper proposes a narrative-based, cross-country approach to separately measure ideological polarization and legislative gridlock. Using dictionary-based analysis of national press coverage in France, Germany, Spain, and Italy, we construct two high-frequency indices: a Political Polarization Index, capturing the extent of ideological division, and a Legislative Gridlock Index, capturing evidence of policy stalling.

Our results show that polarization has increased significantly in Europe since the Global Financial Crisis, though its institutional consequences vary by country: while France and Germany show a close link between polarization and gridlock, Spain and Italy present more nuanced patterns, likely reflecting differences in political institutions and reform trajectories.

Not often we see central banks engaging in such research. That too in high polarised times.

Impact of UPI on Cash Demand – Evidence from National and Subnational Levels

September 29, 2025

In RBI’s Sep-25 bulletin, Sakshi Awasthy and Subrat Kumar Seet analyse impact of UPI on cash demand :

While the broader shift to digital payments is well-established, regional adoption of the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and its impact on cash demand remain underexplored. This article examines the impact of UPI on cash demand at both national and sub-national levels.

Highlights:

    • India’s payment landscape is undergoing a structural shift, evident from currency growth moderating from pandemic levels and sustained UPI expansion with narrowing ticket sizes. At the state level, however, preference between cash and UPI varies across regions.
    • Empirical results show that higher UPI adoption is associated with lower cash demand at both national and sub-national levels, with state-level patterns suggesting non-linearity.
    • Among other state-wise factors, income and ATM density are positively associated with cash demand, whereas workforce formalisation and educational attainment are linked to lower cash reliance.

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