Archive for December 23rd, 2025

Case of Bulgaria: from hyperinflation to Euro

December 23, 2025

Charles Enoch and Anna-Marie Gulde of IMF trace stunning history of Bulgaria which transitioned from hyperinflation to Euro in 3 decades:

On a warm June morning in Sofia in early 2025, the news spread quickly through the halls of the Bulgarian National Bank. The convergence report Bulgaria had requested from the European Commission and the European Central Bank in February was complete. It weighed Bulgaria’s economy and laws against the requirements for joining Europe’s single currency.

This was not the first such report, but so far Bulgaria had never shown full compliance with the accession requirements. This time, however, would be different. This time, Bulgarians believed, Brussels and Frankfurt would green-light their country’s membership in the euro area.

The Bulgarians had been working toward this moment for a long time. The country had joined the EU in 2007 and hoped to take a seat at the euro area table soon thereafter. It would take 18 years to achieve that objective: Bulgaria will become the 21st member of the euro area on January 1, 2026.

To understand this remarkable trajectory, we must go back to the 1990s.

The cost of state-building: evidence from Germany

December 23, 2025

Prof Leander Heldring of Northwestern University gives you a different aspect of infra building.  He shows how prior infra building helped Nazi regime later:

I examine the potential of pro-development state (capacity) building projects to be coopted for repression.

I leverage the natural experiment created by the differential build-up of capacity between formerly Prussian and formerly non-Prussian parts of unified Germany, and the radical policy shifts instigated by the Nazi regime. Across a geographical discontinuity, and across different stops of the same train transport to the East, I find that Prussian municipalities were significantly more efficient at deporting Germany’s Jews. They were also better at providing public goods and at collecting taxes. Just before the Nazis came to power, Prussian municipalities also provided public goods more efficiently, but were not differentially involved with anti-Semitism.

I show that democratic oversight and aspects of bureaucratic culture can mitigate the potential for future abuse of state building projects.

 


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