Archive for the ‘Growth and development’ Category
December 22, 2025
Junaid Jahangir provides a teaching plain to teach economics of populism and hate in the latest edition of Real World Economics Review:
The objective in this paper is to list the salient ideas in the economics of populism to provide a lesson plan at the introductory and elective levels in economics. This is achieved through a literature review and book reviews in the economics of populism, the economics of hate, the political economy of both populism and hate, and popular books by noted academics, Jason Stanley and Yuval Noah Harari. A list of salient ideas is highlighted and complemented with video clips including ‘The Mob Song’ from Disney. Activities based on parsing song lyrics, contrasting viewpoints, and sample questions are outlined for the purpose of teaching the economics of populism.
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December 5, 2025
Johan Norberg has written a new book: Peak Human: What We Can Learn from the Rise and Fall of Golden Ages.
He shares the key learnings in this IMF article:
Ninth century Baghdad, seat of the Abbasid Caliphate, was designed as a perfect circle to honor the Greek geometer Euclid. The empire, enriched by trade in goods and ideas, sponsored an ambitious translation movement to collect the accumulated knowledge of the many cultures it interacted with.
This open mindset is one of the keys to the success of seven great civilizations spanning two and a half millennia. The practical lessons of these cultures could not be more important today as countries choose once again to wall themselves off—physically, economically, digitally, and from new ideas.
Leaders promise safety, greatness, and a return to an imagined golden age through protection and control. It is a familiar and tempting story when the future feels uncertain. Yet history tells a different tale.
The most secure and prosperous societies did not hide from the world. They were confident enough to remain open to trade and ideas, allowing the new to challenge the known. Progress emerges when people experiment, borrow, and combine ideas in ways no planner could ever foresee; decline happens when fear overcomes curiosity.
These are among the central lessons of history’s real golden ages that I explore in my new book, Peak Human: What We Can Learn from the Rise and Fall of Golden Ages.
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December 4, 2025
The IMF’s Finance & Development (F&D) December 2025 edition is based on the theme of data. It says : more data, now what?
F&D editor Gita Bhatt explains:
We live in a galaxy of data. From satellites and smartwatches to social media and swipes at a register, we have ways to measure the economy to an extent that would have seemed like science fiction just a generation ago. New data sources and techniques are challenging not only how we see the economy, but how we make sense of it.
The data deluge raises important questions: How can we distinguish meaningful signals of economic activity from noise in the age of artificial intelligence, and how should we use them to inform policy decisions? To what extent can new sources of data complement or even replace official statistics? And, at a more fundamental level, are we even measuring the metrics that matter most in today’s increasingly digital economy? Or are we simply tracking what we looked at in the past? This issue of Finance & Development explores these questions.
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This issue serves as a reminder that better measurement is not just about more data—it’s about using it wisely. In an era where AI amplifies both possibilities and noise, that challenge becomes even more urgent. To serve the public good, data must help us see the world more clearly, respond intelligently to complexity, and make better decisions. Data, after all, is a means not an end.
I hope the insights in this issue help you better understand the profound forces at play in our data-driven world.
From the world of data scarcity, we move to world of data plenty.
Posted in Academic research & research papers, Central Banks / Monetary Policy, Economics - macro, micro etc, Financial Markets/ Finance, Growth and development | Leave a Comment »
December 2, 2025
Ricardo Alonzo Fernandez Salguero of UPC Barcelona Tech reviews Washington Consensus:
The Washington Consensus has been one of the most influential and controversial economic policy paradigms of the late 20th century. Conceived as a ten-point decalogue of market-oriented reforms, its implementation generated a vast body of literature evaluating its impacts.
This qualitative narrative review synthesizes evidence from 53 academic studies to offer a panoramic view of its legacy. It explores its origins and evolution, the empirical evidence associating it with improvements in growth, and the criticisms linking it to rising inequality and economic crises. Finally, it analyzes the emergence of post-consensus narratives, arguing that this evolution, rather than a rupture, represents a strategic adaptation of neoliberalism.
The findings reveal that while the era of universal solutions is over, the post-consensus paradigm often recycles fundamental principles under a new language of inclusion and contextual specificity, posing new challenges for the search for genuine development alternatives.
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December 1, 2025
Gaurav Dutt in TheIndiaForum discusses the the Great Indian Poverty Debate 3.0:
The epithet “the Great Indian Poverty Debate” dates back to the early 2000s, when the first version of the debate around India’s poverty estimates was triggered by a lack of comparability of underlying survey data.
The National Sample Survey (NSS) Organisation’s Household Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) has long served as India’s premiere (monetary) poverty monitoring instrument and the primary data source for official poverty statistics. A change in the NSS survey methodology for the 55th round of the CES in 1999-00 led to a vigorous debate on how much poverty had declined up to that point. Many key contributions to this debate—which still make excellent reading—were collected in a volume titled The Great Indian Poverty Debate edited by Angus Deaton and Valerie Kozel (2005).
That was version 1.0 of the Great Indian Poverty Debate (hereafter, GIPD). Things were relatively quiet on the poverty statistics front for about a decade since then up to the 68th round of the CES for 2011-12. Then, there was a long hiatus in further rounds of the CES. There was a suppressed round of the CES for 2017-18 (though some poverty estimates emerged based on leaked tabulations; see the 2022 article by S. Subramanian).
Covid 19 intervened in early 2020 to further delay data collection efforts. The next CES only took place in 2022-23, which meant a decade-long hole in the poverty statistics series. The CES data gap inspired jugaad, with a number of attempts to come up with poverty estimates for the post-2012/ pre-pandemic period, using alternative data sources and a variety of imputation procedures.
A heated debate—GIPD 2.0—ensued on what had happened to poverty since 2011-12. There was a wide range of post-2012 poverty estimates, and hence a wide range of estimated rates of poverty reduction since 2012. GIPD 2.0 has remained unsettled. The only broad consensus is on the direction of change (that poverty has almost certainly declined since 2012), but with wide disagreement on the extent of change.
While following GIPD 1.0 and GIPD 2.0 is instructive and there are lessons to be learnt from them, I focus on the current debate, GIPD 3.0, in this note. The discussion is in three parts—the context, the content, and the controversy around GIPD 3.0.
Broad summary of GIPD 3.0: poverty numbers have fallen but we are not certain of the magnitude.
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November 28, 2025
Prof Sacchidananda Mukherjee assesses the impact of GST restructuring on people’s finances in this NIPFP paper:
The GST rates for numerous items were recently revised, with the updated rates coming into effect on 22 September 2025.
In this paper, we aim to assess the impact of GST rate restructuring on consumers’ GST liability using the National Sample Survey Office’s Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) for 2022-23. Depending on how rate reductions translate into lower prices, consumer behaviour is expected to change. Variations in the price and income elasticities of demand for goods and services will influence the size and composition of the consumption basket.
However, we employ a static framework in which the price and income elasticities of demand for goods and services are assumed to remain constant from HCES 2022-23. Under these assumptions, the findings of this study suggest that GST liability on household consumption expenditure will decrease by 10% to 16% under the new GST rate structure compared to the previous one.
The average GST liability rate will fall from 5-7% under the old structure to 4-6% under the new structure. We observe a one percentage point decline in GST liability across all MPCE fractile classes under the new GST rate structure compared to the old one.
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November 11, 2025
Gaurav Khanna in this NBER paper discusses the impact of migration from Asia to US over three decades:
This paper examines the rise of high-skill migration from Asia to the United States over the past three decades and its consequences for both sending and receiving economies. Between 1990 and 2019, migrants from five Asian countries—India, China, South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines—accounted for over one-third of the growth in US software developers and a quarter of the increase in scientists, engineers, and physicians.
Drawing on census microdata, visa records, and administrative sources, I show how US demand for talent in information technology, higher education, and healthcare interacted with Asia’s demographic and educational transformations to generate this migration boom. Policy reforms (notably the H-1B, F-1, and J-1 visa programs) and sectoral shifts—such as the internet revolution, declining public support for universities, and aging-related healthcare demand—created persistent needs for foreign students and workers.
Asian economies were uniquely positioned to meet this demand through rapid tertiary expansion, strong STEM institutions, English proficiency, and diaspora networks.
These inflows boosted US innovation, entrepreneurship, and service-sector productivity while fostering “brain gain” and “brain circulation” in Asia. Together, these trends reveal how talent flows from Asia have become central to the structure and growth of the modern US economy.
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November 6, 2025
Lynn Paramore on the Mamdani win:
From New York to California and beyond, soaring costs seem to be rewriting city politics, as voters respond to candidates who promise to ease the financial squeeze. Zohran Mamdani’s historic win in NYC underscores a shift that has been emerging in recent years – both in the U.S. and globally — and could extend to other major cities.
For example, in Boston, progressive Democrat Michelle Wu, elected in 2021, ran on making city life more affordable with expanded tenant protections, investments in housing, and childcare support. Her most prominent challenger, Josh Kraft, son of Forbes 400 billionaire Robert Kraft, flamed out even before the election. Out west, Oakland’s progressive Democrat Barbara Lee, elected in 2025, focused on tackling homelessness and making housing and daycare more accessible for families. And in Chicago, democratic socialist Brandon Johnson, who took office in 2023, campaigned on “Green Social Housing” and other programs to lower living costs for working families.
Across these cities, the math is clear: when basic necessities like housing, childcare, and utility costs reach stratospheric levels, voters turn to leaders who offer solutions. These mayoral victories reflect the economic pressures impacting urban life and show why cost-of-living issues are now a defining feature of city politics.
Let’s take a look at how these four cities — New York, Boston, Oakland, and Chicago — stack up in terms of costs.
More details in the post.
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October 27, 2025
Mark Glick and Gabriel A. Lozada question the economics of free trade in this INET paper:
Free trade has long been defended as an unquestioned good in economics, yet its welfare foundations are deeply flawed. The efficiency gains highlighted by comparative advantage rest on the Potential Pareto Principle, which assumes away distributional concerns and treats aggregate surplus as synonymous with social welfare. In practice, free trade produces both winners and losers, often with significant and lasting harms to labor. Classical and modern theorists—from Ricardo to Samuelson—have acknowledged these problems, but standard textbooks and policy rhetoric bury them beneath confident claims of net benefits. Revisiting the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem, critiques of consumer and social surplus, and later retractions by Hicks and Samuelson, we show that the intellectual case for free trade rests on indefensible ethical and empirical premises. A more rigorous and honest approach requires economists to restrict themselves to identifying effects on different groups, while leaving judgments about welfare and distribution to broader political debate.
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October 27, 2025
This paper provides systematic evidence on the macroeconomic consequences of war using a new dataset covering 115 conflicts and 145 countries over the past 75 years.
We document three main findings.
First, conflict generates large and persistent real effects: real GDP falls by 13% on average with no recovery even after a decade, while investment collapses as financial frictions reduce domestic credit. The drop in real activity is more pronounced for civil wars than it is for interstate conflicts.
Second, government finances deteriorate as revenues contract while expenditures remain stable, thus raising primary deficits. Real government debt also declines, and governments shift 1.2% of GDP towards short maturities.
Third, governments rely heavily on inflation to finance their deficits: the price level and money supply both rise by nearly 50%, eroding debt and generating seigniorage but also depressing investment and raising the cost of imported capital goods.
Yet we never learn. We elect leaders that promise wars only to bring misery on us.
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October 16, 2025
Kevin Bryan on the economics nobel 2025:
What a joy this morning, both personally and academically, to see a Nobel awarded for innovation. Joel Mokyr, an encyclopedia of economic history, was actually a PhD advisor of mine at Northwestern. Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt wrote one of the three canonical models of innovation and growth that every economist in this area knows in their sleep (Loury and Romer being the other two). All three laureates are unbelievably nice, positive, friendly colleagues, in a way I find it hard to overstate. We could fill this article just with stories – bagatelles, shall we say, for Philippe’s sake – but let’s intersperse the fun with the rigor. As I know Joel so well, I’ll devote most of this essay to discussing his work and the intellectual history behind it, before looking at Aghion and Howitt’s incredibly influential Schumpeterian model. To understand the most important event in economic history, the Industrial Revolution, or the most important future event, the impact of AI, it’s hard to think of a better place to start than the work of these three.
Posted in Economics - macro, micro etc, Growth and development, Medals and awards | Leave a Comment »
October 15, 2025
Vincent Geloso and Alex Tabarrok argue democracy and capitalism go hand in hand:
Many people argue that democracy is incompatible with capitalism but they differ on whether democracy will subvert capitalism or whether capitalism will subvert democracy.
The first argue that the logic of democracy leads to socialism with James Madison and Joseph Schumpeter decrying the road to serfdom while others like Karl Marx delighting in this historical inevitability.
The second argue, based in part on fears of rising inequality, that capitalist oligarchs will come to control the democratic process cementing their dominance. Democratic forms may remain but true democracy will be ended.
A third argument consistent with the views of Hayek, Mises, Friedman and others is that capitalism and democracy are compatible and even mutually reinforcing.
We provide evidence for the third view by showing that most democracies are capitalist and most capitalist countries are democracies. Empirically there is no obvious and inevitable trend either towards or away from capitalism or democracy, although both rise and fall with events. We argue that there are significant complementarities in theory and practice between capitalism and democracy and, as a result, capitalist democracies are relatively stable.
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