The ten most significant naval news stories / trends / themes this year included:

• The Houthi’s continued effective closure of the Red Sea to commercial shipping. How much longer will the world allow this to happen?

• The Ukrainian Navy’s ever increasing innovation with its use of surface to air missiles and bomber drones from unmanned surface vessels, its use of unmanned underwater vehicles for strikes and its strikes deep in the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea against Russian shadow fleet tankers. Will successful operations against Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers help to cut off funding of Russia’s war in the Ukraine?

• NATO navies concrete reaction to Russian hybrid warfare at sea with the deployment of a NATO joint task force to protect undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. Is this a good example of how quickly NATO is learning to operate in peace and war without the U.S. taking the lead?

• Succesful French and Italian and United Kingdom naval deployments in the Indo Pacific this year which had a hugely symbolic political impact. What would these country’s military contribution be in time of war with China?

• Taiwan’s efforts to begin to turn itself into a porcupine with mines, drones, antiship cruise missiles and unmanned surface vessels. Will this be enough to deter a Chinese invasion or will it be a case of too little, too late?

• The recapitalization of the Philippine Navy with new bases, ships, and antiship cruise missiles and extensive exercising with the US Army and US Marine Corps. Is this the first concrete example of US “stand-in” forces operating in the First Island Chain?

• Japan’s publicly stated recognition that a conflict in Taiwan will most certainly involve Japan as evidenced by it beginning to fortify the Ryukyu Islands. Will the US Army and US Marine Corps start exercising in the Ryukyus alongside the Japanese, providing another concrete example of US “stand-in” forces operating in the First Island Chain?

• China beginning to practice salami slicing territorial tactics in the Yellow Sea against South Korea, as they have done in the East China Sea and South China Sea in the past. How will South Korea react?

• The continued rise and rise of the People’s Liberation Army Navy with more and more ships being commissioned especially the bespoke landing barges, new missiles and aircraft, aggressive exercising around Australia and Alaska, and extensive anticorruption leadership purges. In 2026 will we see aggressive exercising off of Hawaii or the US West Coast? Is 2027 the date China will invade Taiwan?

• The continued fall and fall of the US Navy with the cancellation of the Constellation-class frigate program and its replacement with the FF(X) frigates that are essentially unarmed, the cancellation of the long under development DDG(X) program with the newly under development Trump-class battleships, no plan to replace the F/A-18 Hornet, and continued confusion over its unmanned air, surface and and undersea programs. Are these the actions of a country that is serious about countering the Chinese Navy? The time to act is growing very, very, very, short…