María Corina Machado's desperate attempt to salvage her standing with Donald Trump by offering him her Nobel Peace Prize has laid bare the peculiar dynamics that led Washington to sideline Venezuela's legitimate electoral winner in favour of a Chavista technocrat with two decades defending authoritarian rule.
The 58-year-old firebrand opposition leader told Fox News on January 5 that she wants to meet with Trump personally to tell him that "the Venezuelan people" want to "give it to him, share it with him,” in a striking reversal for someone who accepted the award just three months earlier whilst dedicating it to the US president "for his decisive support of our cause."
Yet according to two people close to the White House who spoke to The Washington Post, Trump's decision to back acting president Delcy Rodríguez rather than Machado stemmed directly from her acceptance of the prize he has long coveted. "If she had turned it down and said, 'I can't accept it because it's Donald Trump's,' she'd be the president of Venezuela today," one person told the newspaper.
Trump publicly denied the Nobel Prize influenced his decision, telling NBC on January 5 that Machado "should not have won it" but insisting the award had "nothing to do with my decision" to work with Rodríguez instead. He has repeatedly stated that “nice woman” Machado "doesn't have the support within, or the respect within, the country," calling it "very tough" for her to become Venezuela's leader despite her movement's landslide victory in widely disputed 2024 elections.
The episode reveals how personal pique and strategic calculation conspired to seal Venezuela's political fate following Nicolás Maduro's capture by US special forces on January 3. Whilst Machado does command genuine popular support – several independent election monitors and NGOs confirmed that Edmundo González, who stood in for the banned Machado, captured over two-thirds of votes cast in July 2024 – Trump administration officials concluded she lacked the capacity to manage Venezuela's immediate transition.
A classified CIA assessment, reported by The New York Times, suggested that maintaining senior figures from Maduro's government rather than promoting the opposition would best secure the country's stability. Such an analysis apparently influenced Trump's decision to empower Rodríguez, who controls levers of state power including the military apparatus that Machado cannot command.
"We are dealing with the immediate reality," Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a long-time supporter of Machado, told NBC's Meet the Press on January 4. "The immediate reality is that, unfortunately and sadly, but unfortunately the vast majority of the opposition is no longer present inside of Venezuela."
US officials concluded that Machado and her centre-right Vente Venezuela movement lack sufficient influence over the Bolivarian National Armed Forces – the very same military that shielded and enabled Maduro's authoritarian rule for more than a decade. Without that control, American officials feared, installing Machado could further destabilise Venezuela rather than facilitate an orderly transition.
Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, who command the armed forces and domestic intelligence apparatus respectively, remain in their positions despite Maduro's ouster, their loyalty to Chavismo intact. Rodríguez, who served as Maduro's vice president and oil minister, maintains working relationships with these power brokers that Machado simply cannot replicate from exile.
"Delcy Rodríguez, as you know, is one of the main architects of torture, persecution, corruption, narcotrafficking," Machado told Fox News. Yet her accurate characterisation of Rodríguez's complicity in authoritarian governance could not overcome Trump’s assessment that stability requires co-opting figures who control Venezuela's coercive apparatus.
Machado has sought to position herself as the ideal partner for Trump's Venezuela objectives, promising that under her leadership the country would become "the energy hub of the Americas" with markets opened to foreign investment and rule of law restored.
But it is Rodríguez, not Machado, will oversee those negotiations, despite the opposition leader's superior democratic credentials. Conversations between Caracas and Washington regarding petroleum shipments to US refineries are underway, Reuters reported, citing multiple sources within government, industry and maritime sectors. US oil chief executives are expected to visit the White House as early as this week to discuss investments in Venezuela.
Venezuela possesses approximately 303bn barrels of reserves, the world’s largest, primarily heavy crude requiring complex refining. The country's oil industry has deteriorated sharply over the last decade due to corruption, lack of investment and Western sanctions. Current production stands at roughly 1.1mn barrels daily, less than a third of levels achieved in the 1970s.
Trump has declared the United States is now "in charge" of Venezuela and will help revive its oil industry with private company assistance. It now looks that revival will occur under Rodríguez's supervision, with Machado relegated to offering praise and giving remote interviews from undisclosed locations whilst her movement's electoral mandate is nullified.
Politico reports that Washington has outlined expectations for Rodríguez including suppressing narcotics trafficking, expelling Cuban, Iranian, Russian and other anti-American personnel, and halting petroleum exports to US rivals, and eventual facilitation of free elections in which she would stand down. However, no timeline has been specified, and Venezuela's Supreme Court has classified Maduro's detention as "temporary" rather than permanent, technically allowing Rodríguez to serve for up to six months without triggering constitutional requirements for elections within thirty days.
Machado’s offer to surrender the Nobel Prize to Trump comes across as a final, futile gesture acknowledging the reality that personal rapport with the American president might have mattered more than democratic legitimacy or popular support. The lesson for opposition movements elsewhere is uncomfortable: in Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy, even Nobel recognition counts for less than control over oil reserves and security forces. And considerably less than avoiding perceived personal slights.
For now, Venezuela's most daring and celebrated opposition leader remains in exile, offering prizes she cannot deliver to a president who has already crowned her pro-regime nemesis.