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Manufacturing employment in advanced economies is widely viewed as being in long-term decline. Using German administrative data from 1975 to 2019, this column shows that much of the decline measured at the industry level reflects a shift of manufacturing tasks into service sector firms rather than a disappearance of manufacturing work.
Manufacturing work beyond manufacturing industries: Rethinking structural change in Germany
VoxEU presents columns based on the "Job Market Papers" of leading young scholars
Economists have long struggled to measure the informal economy, despite its significant role in global economic activity. Previous methods have relied on indirect proxies such as cash circulation or electricity usage, or on inferences based on highly structured macroeconomic models. This column by Francesco Pappadà and Kenneth Rogoff introduces a new, algorithmic and easily updateable approach to estimating informal activity in Europe, utilising VAT data and consumption surveys. While the approach works particularly well for Europe, it can in principle can be extended to other countries where value added taxes are a major source of revenue.
