Card Grading ROI Analyser
Submission Inputs
Raw ungraded card cost
PSA / BGS / CGC submission fee
SG CPI Jan 2026: 1.4%
Submission to return
CPF OA rate or T-bill yield
Price drift during grading period
Grade Probabilities & Value Multipliers
Grade
Probability (%)
Multiplier (x)
Gem Mint (10) *
Mint (9)
Below Mint (8 and below) (auto)
TVM Cost Analysis
Nominal Fee
--
Today's dollars
Real Fee (inflated)
--
--
Opportunity Cost
--
Foregone return
Total Cost Basis
--
Must exceed to profit
Expected Value Breakdown
Future Card Value
--
--
Prob-Weighted EV
--
Expected sale value
Net Profit / Loss
--
--
--
Enter your inputs above.
Cost Waterfall
Card purchase price--
Real grading fee--
Opportunity cost--
Break-even required--
Prob-weighted EV--
Net expected outcome--
Sensitivity -- Gem Mint Probability vs Card Price Change
| Loading... |
Sensitivity -- Gem Mint Multiplier at Return vs Card Price Change
Net outcome at selected prob x mult
--
The table shows all multipliers simultaneously. The selector above only drives the point estimate.
| Loading... |
Card Price History — 20 Weekly Sold Comps (USD)
Enter eBay median sold prices oldest to newest. Leave blank for weeks with no sales (auto forward-filled).
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Volatility Summary
Mean Price
--
Average over period
Std Deviation
--
Typical weekly swing
Coefficient of Variation
--
Scale-free volatility
Weekly Volatility
--
Log-return std dev
Annual Volatility
--
Annualised (52 weeks)
Max Historical Drawdown
--
Worst peak-to-trough
Price Scenarios Over Grading Period
Current price--
+1 SD scenario (bull case)
--
-1 SD scenario (conservative)
--
-2 SD scenario (stressed / bear case)
--
10th percentile (historical worst 10%)
--
Max drawdown scenario
--
Suggested Price Change Input for TVM Calculator
--
Worst of -1 SD projection or max historical drawdown
