Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Oil and gas expansion gains momentum; outlooks improve but cost pressures grow

Activity in the oil and gas sector jumped in second quarter 2026, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

June 24, 2026

U.S. economy less vulnerable to geopolitical oil price shocks than in the past

Recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas research shows that the response of U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth to the 2026 Iran war is only one-twentieth of what it would have been in 1980. Moreover, the response of U.S. real GDP growth today is only one-sixth of the decline in the rest of the world.

June 23, 2026

Term funding premium: Time is money even absent interest rate risk

Term premium, a central concept in analysis of interest rates and monetary policy, is generally viewed largely as compensation for bearing interest-rate risk. However, Treasury asset swap spreads strongly indicate the existence of a distinct premium—a term funding premium—associated with merely providing term financing. This funding premium shows promise as a real-time indicator of Treasury market stress.

June 25, 2026

Texas Employment Forecast, June 22

The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.8 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.4 percent.

June 22, 2026

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Events & Outreach

Sept. 24

VISTAS from Texas: Economic Outlook and Prospects for the USMCA Review

Dallas

Nov. 10

Energy and the Economy: Tail Risks, Tailwinds and Resiliency

Houston and virtual

Nov. 13

The Evolving Landscape of Bank Funding

Dallas and virtual

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Fed 101: Reserve Banks and the roles of the Fed

What is a reserve bank?

Explore our Fed 101 guide to the roles and structure of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank. Learn how the Dallas Fed and other regional Reserve Banks promote a strong economy in communities across the country.

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At the Heart of Texas

The third edition of this special report is a comprehensive look at the historical, economic and demographic profiles of 12 of Texas' key metropolitan areas.

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Fresh from the Fed

Dallas Fed Economics

Term funding premium: Time is money even absent interest rate risk

U.S. economy less vulnerable to geopolitical oil price shocks than in the past

Hormuz closure offsets tariff reversal; U.S. left with upside inflation risk

Rising hedge fund leverage affects monetary policy implementation

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Dallas Fed Communities

Small businesses optimistic despite facing uncertainty, tariffs, technology changes

Salary not sole concern for young adults weighing career decisions, focus groups find

How might artificial intelligence affect Texas’ good jobs?

Texas economic growth outpaces the nation, but are small businesses keeping up?

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Southwest Economy

Oil prices are up; whither the Texas boom?

Texas economy shows resilience amid geopolitical uncertainty

Trader remains bullish on cattle despite economic, contagion threats

Ranchers herd it all as fewer cattle pressure beef prices; screwworm lurks

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Global Perspectives

The Dallas Fed’s signature speaker series features engaging conversation with business leaders, economics and policy experts and Federal Reserve officials.

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