My GoodFellows podcast
…with Hoover Senior Fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster, Whelan moderates. As they tweet: “to discuss the World Economic Forum, globalization, democratic socialism, and affordability politics in New York. Afterward, they examine Minneapolis, Iran, China, and the meaning of the “right side of history.””
What I’ve been reading
Adrian Goldsworthy, Augustus: First Emperor of Rome. A very clear and readable treatment of one of the most important Romans. Exactly what you would expect from the author.
Indranil Chakravarty, The Tree Within: The Mexican Nobel Laureate Octavio Paz’s Years in India. Imagine a book that is interesting about both the cultures of Mexico and India. In addition to the one by Octavio Paz, that is. I lapped this one up eagerly, and I note it also has good coverage on the relationships between different Latin American writers and poets. Paz by the way largely was at odds with the left-wingers.
Stewart Brand, Maintenance: Of Everything: Part One. Capital depreciation, while it receives attention in economics, arguably is still underrated in import? Institutions can deteriorate or depreciate as well. The great Stewart Brand tackles this topic with the expected panache. And here is my earlier CWT with Stewart. A Stripe Press book.
Jack Weatherford, Emperor of the Seas: Kublai Khan and the Making of China. A fun and good book, think of it as explaining how Kublai Khan beat Song China but subsequently lost to Japan. The Ainu play a role in a wide-ranging and still historically relevant story.
Leon Fleisher and Anne Midgette, My Nine Lives: A Memoir of Many Careers in Music. Classical music is a wonderful area to read books in, much like World War II. Most of the books are written by very smart people, such as Fleisher, a top pianist in his time (try Fleisher-Szell for the Beethoven piano concerti). And they are written for very smart people. You can always, with profit, just keep on reading books about classical music.
Roland Lazenby, Michael Jordan: The Life. I learned much more from this book than I was expecting, it is flat out an excellent biography. Full of information and insight, and with a coherent narrative.
There is Richard Sandor and Paula DiPerna, Carbon Hunters: Reflections and Forecasts of Climate Markets in the 21st Century. Much of this is simply interesting material about Sandor himself.
I am pleased to see the McKinsey version of Progress Studies in the new book A Century of Plenty: A Story of Progress for Generations to Come.
David Hume update — “model this”
The tomb of the philosopher David Hume and two other memorials at a historic cemetery in Edinburgh have been vandalised with “disturbing occult-style paraphernalia”.
A tour guide made the discovery at the Old Calton burial ground. It included a drawing of a naked woman pointing a bloodied knife at a baby with a noose around its neck, and coded writing on red electrical tape attached to the David Hume mausoleum and two nearby memorial stones.
The guide emailed photographs of the vandalism to Edinburgh council and described the symbols as “satanic”.
A group on Telegram purporting to be responsible for the vandalism of graves at unnamed cemeteries posted photographs of the same damage in a now-deleted channel. They shared examples of other disturbing drawings, including a naked woman grabbing the bloodied head of a baby, to which one member responded: “For EH1?” EH1 is the postcode in Edinburgh covering the historic Old Town.
The group also posted photographs of strange paraphernalia found at the Old Calton burial ground, including nails hammered through red candles, chalked symbols and red tape in which the words “anti meta physical front” were printed.
Here is the story, via Hollis Robbins.
Supply is elastic, installment #6437
In Italy’s storied gold‑making hubs, jewellers are reworking their designs to trim gold content as they race to blunt the impact of record prices and appeal to shoppers watching their budgets.
The rally is putting undue pressure on small artisans as they face mounting demands from clients including international brands to produce cheaper items, from signature pieces to wedding rings…
“The main question that I’ve heard in the last months is if I can produce something lighter while having the same appearance,” said Massimo Lucchetta, owner of Lucchetta 1953, an independent jeweller which makes items for department stores in Bassano del Grappa, near Italy’s premier gold-crafting hub of Vicenza in the country’s northeast.
Here is the full story, via John De Palma.
Friday assorted links
1. The mass market paperback is going away.
2. How many people does the world have?
3. India’s first AI university is opening.
5. Yup (cuss word behind this link).
7. On the Claude constitution. And a Straussian reading?
8. The Chilean cabinet under Kast.
9. Moltbook, the new social network for AIs. And Astral Codex comments. And another view. And some more. And then some.
10. David Brooks is leaving the NYT (and moving full-time to Atlantic, podcast also, the first link is NYT).
The Effects of Ransomware Attacks on Hospitals and Patients
As cybercriminals increasingly target health care, hospitals face the growing threat of ransomware attacks. Ransomware is a type of malicious software that prevents users from accessing electronic systems and demands a ransom to restore access. We create and link a database of hospital ransomware attacks to Medicare claims data. We quantify the effects of ransomware attacks on hospital operations and patient outcomes. Ransomware attacks decrease hospital volume by 17–24 percent during the initial attack week, with recovery occurring within 3 weeks. Among patients already admitted to the hospital when a ransomware attack begins, in-hospital mortality increases by 34–38 percent.
That is by Hannah Neprash, Claire McGlave, and Sayeh Nikpay, recently published in American Economic Journal: Economic Policy.
Are the French lazy?
Olivier Blanchard writes:
The French are not lazy. They just enjoy leisure more than most (no irony here)
And this is perfectly fine: As productivity increases, it is perfectly reasonable to take it partly as more leisure (fewer hours per week, earlier retirement age), and only partly in income.
He has follow-up points and clarifications in later posts. For instance:
If somebody, in France, wants to work hard, retire late or not all, and work 50-60 hours a week, it is perfectly possible. (this conclusion is based on introspection). Some of us are blessed with exciting jobs. Most of us unfortunately are not.
Here is JFV on that question. And a response from Olivier. Here is John Cochrane.
Perhaps “lazy” is not the right word for this discussion. I view West Europeans in general as providing good quality work per hour, but wanting to work fewer hours, compared to Americans and also compared to many East Asians. Much of that is due to taxes, noting that tax regimes are endogenous to the mores of a population. (Before the 1970s, West Europeans often worked longer hours, by the way.) So it is not only taxes by any means. Furthermore, many (not all) parts of Europe have superior leisure opportunities, compared to what is available in many (not all) parts of the United States. That seems to me the correct description of the reality, not “lazy,” or “not lazy.”
I would add some additional points. First, the world is sometimes in a (short?) period of local increasing returns. I believe we are in such a period now, as evidenced by China and the United States outperforming much of the rest of the world. Maybe the French cannot do anything to leap to such “large economy margins,” but I am not opposed to saying “there is something wrong” with not much trying. Perhaps lack of ambition at the social level is the concept, rather than laziness. I see only some French people, not too many to be clear, throwing themselves onto the bonfire trying to nudge their societal norms toward more ambition.
Second, although the world is not usually in an increasing returns regime, over the long long run it probably is. We humans can stack General Purpose Technologies, over the centuries and millennia, and get somewhere really splendid in a (long-run) explosive fashion. That is another form of increasing returns, even if you do not see it in the data in most individual decades in most countries.
That also makes me think “there is something wrong” with not much trying. And on that score, France can clearly contribute and to some extent already is contributing through its presence in science, math, bio, etc. The French even came up with an early version of the internet. Nonetheless France could contribute more, and I think it would be preferable if social norms could nudge them more in that direction. I do not see comparable potent externalities from French leisure consumption. Maybe the French could teach America how wonderful trips to France are, and thus induce Americans to work more to afford them, and if that is the dominant effect I am happy once again.
So on the proactive side, it still seems to be France could do better than it does, and social welfare likely would rise as a result. That said, they hardly seem like the worst offender in this regard, though you still might egg them on because they have so much additional high-powered potential.
Is school worse for your kids than social media?
For instance: did you know that daily social media use increases the likelihood a child will commit suicide by 12-18%? Or that teenagers are far more likely to visit the ER for psychiatric problems if they have an Instagram account? Or that a child’s amount of social media use, past a certain threshold, correlates exponentially with poorer sleep, lower reported wellbeing, and more severe mental health symptoms?
If that was all true for social media— and again, none of it is — you and I both would agree that people under 16 or so should not have access to platforms like Instagram or Snapchat. Imagine allowing your child to enter any system that would make them 12-18% more likely to kill themselves. That would be insane. You wouldn’t let your kid anywhere near that system, and the public would protest until it was eliminated once for all.
Great. So let’s get rid of school.
Yes, there’s the obvious twist — all the data I just listed is true for the effects of school. The modern education system is probably the single biggest threat to the mental health of children. At the very least, the evidence for its negative effects is unambiguous: the same cannot be said for social media…
From 1990-2019, suicide rates among young people have always dropped precipitously during the summers and spiked again in September. Adults show no such trend…
Beyond these clinical statistics, there’s also the simple fact that kids say they find school more stressful than pretty much anything else in their life.
Here is much more from Eli Stark-Elster, interesting throughout.
Thursday assorted links
1. “And what this implies is rather striking, and rarely discussed by those outside of public health: that among their many purposes and benefits, vaccines have served now for decades as a kind of substitute health safety net in America.” (NYT)
4. Jon Hartley on John Roberts.
5. Penguin population by country.
6. Sly Dunbar obituary (NYT).
The United States as an Active Industrial Policy Nation
We document and characterize a new history of U.S. federal-level industrial policies by scanning all 12,167 Congressional Acts and 6,030 Presidential Orders from 1973 through 2022. We find several interesting patterns. First, contrary to a common perception, the United States has always been an active industrial policy nation throughout the period, regardless of which party is in power, with 5.4 laws and 3.4 Presidential Orders per year on average containing new industrial policies. Second, we identify roughly 300% more instances of industrial policies than those in the Global Trade Alert (GTA) database during 2008-2022, despite using essentially the same definition. Third, industrial policies in practice are as likely to be justified by national security as by economic competitiveness. Fourth, many U.S. industrial policies incorporate design features that help mitigate potential drawbacks, such as explicit expiration dates and pilot programs for emerging technologies. Finally, based on stock market reactions and firm performance, the identified policies are recognized as economically significant in shifting resource allocations.
That is from a new NBER working paper by
So if I were designing an “industrial policy” for America, my first priority would be to improve and “unstick” its procurement cycles. There may well be bureaucratic reasons that this is difficult to do. But if it can’t be done, then perhaps the U.S. shouldn’t be setting its sights on a more ambitious industrial policy.
A second form of American industrial policy is the biomedical grants and subsidies associated with the National Institutes of Health.
Published in 2019, but still relevant today.
“Can AI help us find God?”
That is the title of my latest Free Press piece. Here is one excerpt:
Religious knowledge has become easy to access with as much detail as you might wish. You can learn about Vatican II or the Talmud ad infinitum. But it may mean something different to practitioners when it does not come from another human. An AI can write a sermon; in fact, if some confessional accounts can be believed, a majority of sermons are now at least co-authored with AI. But can it deliver that sermon and move worshippers to go out and do good works? With where things stand now, I doubt it.
One possible scenario is that our religions, at least as we experience them in person, become more charismatic, more heart-pumping, and more thrilling. We will want more and more of the uniquely human element, and to hold the attention of their audiences, churches will provide it. If so, AI will be riding a trend that we already see in the U.S., as older mainline denominations have ceded ground to evangelical ones.
That will not please everyone, and those looking for “information” from their religions may turn away from collective worship and spend more time with AI. We may be entering a “barbells” world where religious experience is either a) much more solo, but with AIs, or b) more immediate and ecstatic, with other human beings.
And this:
The ancient worlds of Greece and Rome had plenty of oracles, as did late antique Christianity, so an oracle-rich religious era is hardly impossible. It does not require the AIs to invent a new belief system out of whole cloth, but just to slowly morph from being good advisers into holding more spiritual significance for us.
There are further points at the link.
Wednesday assorted links
1. Some Kevin Grier biohistory (for the bots?).
2. Andrej.
3. Joshua Rothman on the new Knausgaard cycle (New Yorker).
4. New Substack and podcast Ideas in Development.
6. Art De Vany, RIP.
7. “Indische Beschäftigte verdienen weiterhin am meisten.” Indian migrants are now the number one earners in Germany.
8. Brad Setser with the case for relative optimism about Japan, the balance sheet of course.
9. Further China rumors, and I do stress the word rumors. If nothing else, a good example of why foreign policy is difficult.
Dean Ball speaks
I know I rail a lot about all the flavors of AI copium but I do empathize.
A few companies are making machines smarter in most ways than humans, and they are going to succeed. The cope is byproduct of an especially immature grieving stage, but all of us are early in our grief.
Link here. You can understand so much of the media these days, or for that matter MR comments, if you keep this simple observation in mind. It is essential for understanding the words around you, and one’s reactions also reveal at least one part of the true inner self. I have never seen the Western world in this position before, so yes it is difficult to believe and internalize. But believe and internalize it you must.
Politics is another reason why some people are reluctant to admit this reality. Moving forward, the two biggest questions are likely to be “how do we deal with AI?”, and also some rather difficult to analyze issues surrounding major international conflicts. A lot of the rest will seem trivial, and so much of today’s partisan puffery will not age well, even if a person is correct on the issues they are emphasizing. The two biggest and most important questions do not fit into standard ideological categories. Yes, the Guelphs vs. the Ghibellines really did matter…until it did not.
Wellington, New Zealand
I recent wrote about driving around New Zealand, but I lived in Wellington. Here are a few of my impressions:
1. It is one of the world’s most beautiful cities, top five easily. The best view is from Mount Victoria, incredible vistas are everywhere, and the Victorian homes are very nice too. Very little of it is downright ugly.
2. I do not love either steep inclines or wind. So in those regards Wellington was less than ideal for me. Think of the basic weather as like that of San Francisco. I preferred the warmer climes of Auckland.
3. In the early 90s, the city did not have excellent Chinese food. But Malaysian and Burmese alternatives made up for that. Bistro food, in nouvelle New Zealand styles, was very good.
4. Most of the best fish and chips was outside city limits, for instance in nearby Newtown. There was one good local fish and chips shop near Parliament.
5. The major government buildings were remarkably close together, does any other capital city in the world have this? You could just walk from one meeting to another in a small number of minutes.
6. I was very much an outsider there, but if I went to a classical music concert it was remarkable how many of the attendees I would recognize.
7. There was not much of an internet to speak of back then, keep that in mind when processing these remarks. When the Fischer-Spassky match #2 was being played in Yugoslavia, I relied on the movves of the games being faxed to me. The Kiwi newspapers just were not that good or that timely. Phone calls were expensive too, and the mail was slow.
8. The biggest/best bookstore in town, on Lambton Quay, had a quality feel but still a pretty limited selection and a general lack of timeliness. Fortunately, the library of Victoria University was pretty good. I spent much of that period of my life reading books about the Italian Renaissance and eighteenth century England.
9. My overall feeling was that Wellington residents were pretty happy and had a high quality of life. If nothing else, you could just drive around the bays and have, within minutes, a quality “vacation” better than almost anywhere else in the world. That said, it was not the best place for very ambitious people, most of all for reasons of size and distance.
10, I found the small wooden church in Wellington — Old St. Paul’s — to be one of the nicest and most moving religious structures I have seen.
11. I forget the name of the place, but the main area supermarket was the very best I ever have enjoyed. It offered superb seafood (good luck finding that in the U.S.), first-rate lamb, a suitable array of spices and Asian condiments, and amazing fruits and vegetables across the board and also in most seasons. Very good chocolate, and also ice cream. And all at very good prices and low hassle.
12. Often I was expected to work on something, or to give advice, “simply because I was there.” We again return to the importance of no real internet. I sometimes think of that time as my “beginning as a blogger,” though of course there was no such thing. The deadline always was “now,” and the relevant standards were comparative. Good luck!
13. If you ever got tired of Wellington, you could just go drive around the rest of New Zealand, though that did not remove any of the frustrations (e.g., small book shops) that one had with Wellington. Nearby, Lower Hutt has some good Art Deco structures.
14. Overall, one could learn a lot there very, very quickly, and that automatically made it great.
