In 2022, after Oregon’s new map for congressional districts was set in place, the state emerged with a high number of competitive U.S. House districts: Three out of six were Democratic-leaning, but not by enough to lock out Republicans. Nationally, fewer than a fifth of districts usually meet that description.
The 2022 election gave Democrats two of those three seats. Then-Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle won the 4th District, which includes Eugene, Corvallis and much of Oregon’s coast, while then-state Rep. Andrea Salinas captured the 6th District in the Willamette Valley, though both contests were competitive.
Voters elected Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer in the more closely-matched 5th District, based around Clackamas County on the west side and Deschutes County on the east.
In 2024, even while Republicans did well nationally, Hoyle and Salinas seemed to solidify their positions, while Democrat Janelle Bynum ousted Chavez-DeRemer in another close race.
This year, while the 4th and 6th districts seem to be slipping out of easy reach for Republicans, you could make an argument that the 5th District, which flipped control twice after two very close races, ought to be a hot battleground once again.
But it doesn’t look that way.
Two years ago, the Cook Political Report regularly rated the Oregon 5th a “toss-up” race. This year, it calls it “likely Democratic,” and the national parties seem less interested in it than in the last two elections.
Two Republicans are competing in the upcoming primary election: Deschutes County Commissioner Patti Adair and law school student (and legal extern) and activist Jonathan Lockwood. Adair is the clear front-runner. She has reported raising substantial funds (about $272,000 by the end of March), while Lockwood didn’t report any (which legally means no more than $5,000).
Lockwood’s website reports no endorsements from fellow Republicans, while Adair’s endorsement page is packed with them, including two leading Republican gubernatorial contenders (Christine Drazan and Ed Diehl), numerous legislators and county officials and the Oregon Farm Bureau and Oregon Young Republicans. Adair has been organizing since at least last fall, and it shows.
Put it this way: An Adair loss in the primary would be a major upset.
The general election is another story.
Start with fundraising. Adair’s $272,000 is not bad for a congressional challenger at this point, but her treasury may be swamped by Bynum’s current $3 million.
Adair, of Sisters, has a political base in Deschutes County, where she has twice been elected commissioner; elections for commission are partisan in Deschutes. But that base seems far from overwhelming. She won with 50.5% in 2018 and 50.9% in 2022, results even closer than the last two contests in the 5th Congressional District.
The year may be critical too. Like the leading Republican contenders for governor, Adair has barely if at all mentioned the name of Donald Trump, though control of the U.S. House is a key factor in what the second half of this Trump term looks like — and is a central issue in congressional races nationally. The public pages of her website appear to lack specific references to the president, even in a press release criticizing a recent Bynum budget vote in which Trump was directly involved.
She has ties to Trump, however. In 2016 she was a delegate to the Republican National Convention bound to support Trump.
The Trump administration filtered into her commission activities. In February 2025, she was part of the 2-1 commission majority opting to end the county Diversity, Equity, Inclusion and Access Committee, described as working on matters such as “pay disparities between male and female county employees, improving access for hearing and visually impaired residents and other accessibility initiatives.” The decision was locally controversial; it followed orders by Trump to end federal (though not state or local) DEI activities.
Adair said at that meeting, “We’re following the president from the top… the federal government is in charge of a lot of funding that comes to Deschutes County, and I would hate to lose it.”
All that will provide grist for Bynum, the extremely probable Democratic nominee. (She does have an opponent, Zeva Rosenbaum, a first-time candidate and a progressive activist who has reported no campaign receipts or spending.)
A sense of what may be coming from Bynum’s campaign might be drawn from the opening lines of her comments on February 24 after Trump’s state of the union address: ““Tonight, I watched President Trump spend the majority of his speech lying about the state of our economy, demonizing immigrants, attacking voting rights, and spewing more of the same divisive BS. I can’t say I’m surprised. It’s past time the President starts doing his job and putting the American people first.”
In 2026, arguments like that may make the 5th District Republican campaign a distinctly uphill journey.
This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.



When I arrived for new student orientation at the University of Idaho in August 1974, the second person I met, welcoming us all on the tour bus, was the new student president, Dirk Kempthorne. He was a great greeter - really, my introducer to Idaho.
I can imagine how the majority of the legislators we have elected reacted to
Are you ready for the Super Bowl?
April 12 saw the beginning of the unraveling of a chummy troika of strongman rule among Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Hungary’s Victor Orban and America’s Donald Trump. Over the past decade or so, each leader has been in a different stage of gaining complete control of all levers of power in their respective countries. Hungarian voters dealt Orban a massive election loss on the 12th, derailing his quest for unlimited power.


If I were asked to draw a map of the United States, using only the outlines of the 48 contiguous states, I'd have to give it some thought.