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Have We Been In A Bear Market This Entire Time?

Brian of The Tiny Crypto Blog — Sun, 01 May 2022 20:54:29 GMT

Are we, now?

As I was looking at crypto prices the other day, my thoughts connected to a memory- that memory was the experience of watching prices in 2019 and 2020 (up until August, anyway.) There are parallels today.

Examine this price chart for bitcoin that spans from December 2020 to April 30, which was when the price broke out above its previous 2017 high:

Sidewards, lads! Sidewards!

Now look at the price chart from the beginning of 2019 until October 2020, just before prices broke out towards the previous all-time highs and touched the sixty-thousands a few months later:

More sidewards!

For those who were not around then, (and those that were, but do not immediately recall,) I want to point out the parallels that lead me to believe that we are in a bear market today.

Maddening sideways movements

Living through the post-bear market of 2017, one recalls how deep these prices went:

*ouch*

We went from *just* below 20k down to the low 3,000s in a process that took and lasted for FOURTEEN MONTHS. (That may not seem like a lot in hindsight, but if you lived through the excitement of upward price movement in 2016 and 2017, living through a period of falling knives (plunging prices) and sandpaper (interminable sideways movement that slowly wears you down,) it was time that never ended.

Now that we have the backdrop set, let’s go back to the chart starting in May 2019:

Sidewards, I said! Sidewards!!!

Once prices made their breakout, from their previous range of grinding lows, prices pulled back and fell into a sideways range between 7,000 to 12,000 (minus the days in March 2020 when the entire investment market was in turmoil.) During this time, prices would repeatedly touch that 10,000 mark…then pull back. Touch it…then pull back. After being beaten down for so long in the single thousands, and then have the price break out, signaling an end to the bear market, only to fall back down again…it truly was maddening.

What made it all the more frustrating was that you saw the growth in awareness in mainstream circles, you saw the increased adoption and innovation in crypto in general, you started to hear more mainstream names and large investors talk about it, the increase in retail participation, yet the prices were not correlating.

Jump back to the first chart that comes up to today:

Well, well, well.

Let’s tick off the parallels:

a breakout to new highs- CHECK
a pullback after the highs and then extended movement into a sideways range- CHECK
an increase in awareness, adoption, innovation and implementation of the technology and networks- A BIG, FAT FREAKING CHECK

Simple conclusion: we are in the bear market now.

Act accordingly.

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The TCB Report, #002 — March Madness

Brian of The Tiny Crypto Blog — Sat, 23 Apr 2022 19:48:15 GMT

The TCB Report, #002 — March Madness

The March Madness (Regulation Gets Pushed Forward and Numbers Go Up)

[note: still playing catchup. April’s report should be published by in a couple weeks.]

March Madness is the nickname given to the American Men’s College Basketball tournament, for how unpredictable the results of a game can be, with upsets and last-second, game-winning baskets. It’s also an appropriate label for how the month of March has turned out in the crypto space. The Russia/Ukraine conflict has forced many nations, specifically those of the West, to speed the pace of definition, regulation, adoption, and lawmaking. The pace has gotten frantic. (We’ve also seen CBDCs getting more attention — eyes open.)

The numbers-go-up portion has nothing to do with prices, (which generally went sideways until the last two weeks of the month). No, dear reader, our NGU has to do with adoption numbers: the numbers of family offices, investment funds, corporations, banks, retail investors, and people coming into the space for the first time. This is across-the-board, using pretty much any metric of activity and participation. I subscribe to several newsletters, scan through about a dozen different crypto-centric news sites, and have several targeted google alerts set up, and to sum it up, the adoption curve is continuing to go steadily higher. People are finding new utilities for code, from DAOs, to DeFi, to NFTs, and ways to apply blockchain technology to existing real-world applications. It also helps that the acceleration of laws, regulations, and legal definitions of digital assets are helping to create clarity for individuals and organizations where interest already exists.
As far as I read recently that there is an estimated five billion people using the internet and only about 100 million people who own digital assets (my guess being as high as 200 million.) That’s a lot of room for growth. So sit back and let’s sort through where this adoption is taking place.

CBDC — as part of the drive of adoption by national governments, the push to implement CBDCs is ramping up. The details we need to examine are: 1) how will this be utilized and who will be able or required to use them? (individuals, businesses, banks, governmental bodies, or any combination of these, and will they be used for daily transactions, cross-border remittances, payroll, accounts payable settlement, etc.) 2) will it be made the sole currency of use or will people be allowed to used other forms of currency (dollars, euros, yen, etc?) 3) how will usage be tracked, traced, and administered? (see also China and the social credit system network where everyone’s digital existence is tied to their online ID. 4) how programmable is it? Can an account be cut off, have funds added and removed, and programmed for specific spending categories with expiration dates to spend it by? All these features are doable.

I’ve said it before in the weekly updates and on Twitter, that combined with a Chinese-like social credit score model, whoever is in power will have access to a tool to control and influence a population on a scale never before seen, and if we reach that point, it will take a nation-wide consensus or an enlightened leader to say “no” and reverse course. The digital control grid is a very real possibility. Don’t ever let it get that far. And for the people in the back row who couldn’t hear me: DON’T EVER LET IT GET THAT FAR.

[Late add-on- it was just reported that in the US Senate, Senator Ted Cruz introduced legislation that would create a digital Dollar, but forbid a central-bank operated currency (CBDC.) I doubt it would pass, let alone make it out of the committee stages (where hearings are held, and there is time to make changes to the language,) but it will serve to establish that there are voices who oppose the centralization of money, and that the people who advocate for a centralized money network, there will be resistance to their proposals. That’s a good thing.]

I feel fairly certain that the use case of “one ring to rule them all” will be wrapped in with practical and benign everyday use cases. Watch closely. Eyes open.

ADOPTION
Every few days I see yet another article about a bank or investment firm getting involved with digital assets, either offering custody service and/or trading. It’s usually a just Bitcoin and Ethereum, but as the space evolves and as the education and sophistication of the customer base grows, so will the assets available to them. In Europe, ETP (exchange traded products) are getting listed on the major stock exchanges, giving retail investors and institutions derivative products to get exposure to digital assets, even if it is just a proxy on the price. The plus side to this, is that these funds must purchase the underlying assets that are tracked [Read: buying demand.]

DEFI
Cardano’s defi ecosystem is growing. It’s currently under USD $1billion in TVL (total value locked), but expect that to grow. There seems to be a lot of people enthusiastic about the platform. (I personally like the project partly by Charles Hoskinson’s vision, and also because unlike a lot of other platforms, the IOHK team driving a lot of the core development does not pursue a “move fast and break things” approach. Slow and steady with clean execution- I like that. (Such an approach also has the advantage of letting the faster-moving platforms make a lot of the mistakes for them.)

And defi hacks from faulty code continue. Millions every week. Be careful out there.

Metaverse/Web3
Corporations recognize how this space will have lots of attention and they want to grab a share of it. We’re still in the formative stages, so a lot of news is just who is jumping into this space. It’s still worth it to follow who jumps in, who gets financing (and from whom,) and how the platforms are evolving.

NFT
Another space getting losts of attention and activity. As a low-technical knowledge on-ramp, NFT art is also benefitting as an avenue for community engagement. I could not list the sports teams, corporations and media celebrities that are jumping into the space, but at this point, it’s safe to say that NFT art has taken root and will only evolve from here. If you want to follow the inside track, I highly recommed you follow Blockworks, and Arca finance. Their reporting and analysis are on the cutting edge.

Another good recap report of weekly NFT news is on Bitcoinist.

I’m wrapping up the report here, since at the time of publishing it is late April.

Be well, everyone. Question everything (including yourself.) Talk to you soon.

-Brian

Reference links:
TCB Weekly Update 6 Mar
TCB Weekly Update 13 Mar
TCB Weekly Update 20 Mar
TCB Weekly Update 27 Mar

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The TCB Report, #001 — Oh, Canada!

Brian of The Tiny Crypto Blog — Thu, 14 Apr 2022 02:13:01 GMT

The TCB Report, #001 — Oh, Canada!

For January/February 2022

[Just a quick note for readers: I’m starting up the monthly newsletter, and until I can figure a workaround from a $25/month wordpress account that will allow me to integrate MailChimp, publishing on Medium will have to do. Thanks for your patience.]

Jan/Feb 2021 Oh Canada!

[preface: for this first issue, I drew content from January and February.]
Welcome to the inaugural issue of the TCB Report monthly newsletter. This is my first endeavor into long-form written content, but after working the website for so long, it just seems to be a natural course after being on this journey for nearly five years now.

I had a great deal written out that I was going to start this newsletter with, but events of mid- late-February changed all that. Gone were platitudes and speculative what-ifs, and in their place we have hard facts and case studies. Very suddenly and quickly, millions of people learned the value of a fully decentralized ledger network. There’s plenty of other news on the developments on the adoption, regulatory, nation-state, and project development fronts, (not to mention events in Ukraine in recent days,) but I’m going to start with what I see as the most significant takeaway, the lesson of Canada.

In early February, news began to filter that a convoy of Canadian truckers were planning on driving across the country to the federal capital of Ottawa to protest the covid vaccine mandates that required truckers to show proof of vaccination when returning into the country (among other things.) The momentum and size of the convoy grew, and the actions sparked enthusiasm in people across the country. When the truckers reached Ottawa, they occupied the square in front of the capitol building for days and days, honking away. The Canadian authorities eventually began breaking up the protest using all the use of force and the propaganda tools of a failing State: slander, the use of extremist labels, digital censorship, and the heavy hand of financial repression.

Money had been crowdfunded to pay for trucker’s expenses, allowing them to continue the protest. It was done on the platform GoFundMe which political activist had used before. The Canadian authorities came down hard and pressured the people operating the platform to stop accepting new donations and freeze the distribution of funds; however, it went further. Stories began to circulate that the money would be re-distributed to other causes, to be determined by platform; eventually, though, the uproar was loud enough that GoFundMe would process refunds instead. It was then that the full monty came: the Federal government enacted an Emergency Powers Act, meant for times of war, to allow the bank accounts of recipients AND contributors frozen, cutting them off and locking them out financially from world.

When the GoFundMe account route was closed, alternative platforms prove no more effective. Very quickly, people turned to alternative means, which was bitcoin (and a few other cryptos),and the results were impressive: in less than a week, more than a million dollars USD was raised. The authorities responded by blacklisting the wallet addresses (which is basically a way of saying that anyone interacting with those wallets were subject to legal actions.)

Eventually, force was used to physically break up what was certifiably a peaceful protest, confiscate vehicles and equipment, and disperse participants, forcing the protest to continue by other means. The one denominator and great lesson that came out of all this was that having assets parked in the legacy financial system exposes you to political risks that can be enforced at will, and very quickly, which served to highlight the importance of having readily available digital assets that sit outside the control of said entities. As Andreas Antonopoulis famously said, “Not your keys, not your bitcoin.” If you don’t hold it, you don’t own it. What was only the lessons of developing-world nations with tin-pot dictators and authoritarian regimes hit the West. (Keep in mind that the same provisions enacted in Canada also exist in most every other Western democracy.)

Getting into the meat the newsletter, I’ll be highlighting some to the events and information that I feel is important to be aware of when trying to piece together the big picture.
If you want to read into the specifics of the topics I discuss, you can refer back to the weekly summaries posted every Sunday. (I also post useful tweets, links to reports and research, and short videos to help you
Adoption
The adoption of digital assets as a financial instrument continues to increase speed on multiple fronts: globally, we’re seeing more exchange-traded funds, exchange traded products (a basket of stocks of companies that track an asset, like mining companies, crypto banks, custodians, etc.) coming to market; we see more established banking and financial firms starting to offer custodial services for clients, and we continue to see more companies adding bitcoin to their balance sheets (see also bitcointreasureies.org) It would seem that the boardroom conversations that began in late in 2020 and into 2021 are reaching the “action” stage. A recent report by Fidelity’s Digital Asset team (they’re crushing it as far as being at the spearpoint of adoption) showed that there’s a growing appetite for investing in digital assets in the retail, institutional and private equity sectors. I expect to see more of these headlines in the coming months.

Regulations
In regulatory matters, we are discovering new allies. In the US Senate, via required filings, it was reported that US Senator Ted Cruz purchased bitcoin. When a slew of regulations and laws were being proposed in one of infrastructure bills presented in the US Congress last autumn, Ted Cruz came out and stated (paraphrase): “Let’s slow down and take a look at the language within this legislation before we vote to approve it. Of the 100 Senators, there aren’t but a few that can explain what bitcoin is.” This came in response from advocates and representatives within financial and crypto circles getting vocal.
Also, the demand and the ability for people to get “paid” in bitcoin increases. NYDIG, another company running at full speed and on the leading edge of implementation, recently set up services via their clients banks to enable individuals to get “paid” in bitcoin. (Using my own experimetn using the Strike app as a template, the process involves setting up a direct deposit of your paycheck via your custodian or service’s partner bank instead of directly into your own, and once the transfer goes through, you get the USD credited to your account, and whatever dollar amount or percentage of your check you wanted allocated to bitcoin gets deducted and added to your account as bitcoin. The cash balance (at least with Strike) can then withdraw and moved to your regular banking account. Along this same thread, NYDIG announced that they are expanding their services to additional commercial banks, allowing retail clients to get exposure to bitcoin.

CBDC’s
CBDC implementation continues. Many nations are performing research and one has even gone live in Jamaica. Be leery of these, dear readers. If it is not open-source, permissionless and decentralized, it will be a closed-network, programmable currency that can be used to incentivize and control what we spend and how much we are able to. Plus, it can have the bonus features of being able to have money directly added OR removed by the controlling entity, not to mention monitoring all your transactions. And it could be used as a tool to prevent and/or stop opposition to the authorities (see also Canada and China.) Do NOT let this one slip- in the event of another 2008-like crisis event, you could very likely hear calls to jump to a new monetary system, of which a CBDC would be a central feature. There’s a LOT of people who don’t think about things or understand the bigger picture, and they’ll react with emotion to whatever “solution” the powers-that-be present. Eyes open.

There’s also a good list over at the Fireblocks Digital Asset Insider blog post for February 2022 (along with a slew of other good data points and news- I recommending following them. )

Companies and Projects
I’m dropping some names here for you to do homework on: NYDIG, Fireblocks, and Prime Trust. When you discover what they do, if you’re like me, you’ll realize how deep the ecosystem has become.

In recent news, digital platform Intellabridge Technology Corporation signed an agreement to use Prime Trust to manage borrowing and lending services for them (which also includes custody services. If you’re not familiar with Prime Trust, I suggest you look into them. Many of the large global exchanges as well as numerous app-based services use them for their asset custody.)

CRIME/SCAMS
The past couple months, many DeFi projects have been exploited for due to faulty code. Be mindful of platform risks before investing any of your assets. This includes CeFi (Centralized FInance, where in order to use the services, you have to create an account and submit KYC/AML information.)

Also during this month, BitConnect was back in the news. If you are not familiar with it, it was set up in 2016, whose public face was a platform that earned 3% monthly rewards from alleged trading bots and lending rewards. On top of that, you could earn additional rewards from referrals, which at one point had as many as seven tiers. In actuality, it was a ponzi scheme, using funds from new invenstors to provide the alleged profits to the older investors. The program was also propped up by a bull market in crypto prices that gave the scheme additional legs to run. The plug was pulled in January of 2018, and anyone holding BCC tokens lost 95% of their value in short order.
You can read here or watch these videos for some additional background.

METAVERSE
Microsoft, Walmart, Meta and others are investing into this. The ecosystem is only beginning to take shape, but these companies, as well as other players are looking to get involved at the ground level and lay the foundation at this early a stage in order to 1) get as much first-mover advantage as possible, and 2) potentially have a hand in the development of the framework and standards that will come about much later down the road.

MINING
After China pushed bitcoin mining operations out of the country, North America continues to be a growth market. Larger operations are setting up shop on US soil.
Chipmaker Intel unveiled their new ASIC mining chip. From the reported output and power usage numbers, it would seem that the Research and Development team did its job. We’ll see how popular these become.
In other mining news, Ethereum will transition from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake. Eventually.

Nation States
On the Nation State front, El Salvador keeps stacking sats. As of February 25th, they had 1,691 bitcoin in their possession. https://bitcointreasuries.net/. As a side note, they’re also purported to have USD 500,000,000 in commitments on a bitcoin bond, which will pay purchasers a portion of its value directly in bitcoin. (This clip explains it.) To put the significance of this offering into perspective, check out this fantastic interview Preston Pysh had with Sam Callahan that talks about what the BIS (Bank for International Settlements), IMF (International Monetary Fund), and World Bank are, their roles and how they function. When you hear the track record that IMF-dependent nation states have, you’ll understand.
Other nations are rumored to be exploring the potential, but at this point, it is only rumors. Eyes open.

NFT
Still in it’s infancy, the current bubble is yet to burst, but we’ll see which projects, companies and teams hold out and who shakes out. Keep watching this sector as the use of non-fungable tokens in practical areas such as contracts, ticketing, gaming, and digital IDs only grows. If you want to put events into perspective, read this thread by Mike Ippolito on Twitter. Lots of sage wisdom within it.

STABLECOINS
Don’t ask me why, but I get excited for stablecoins. Perhaps it’s use as a universal utility token; perhaps that it is getting regulatory attention in a more positive manner (that so far doesn’t set it up for use a tool of centralization.) In any case, keep an eye on Circle. In the US Congress, a bill was submitted that would set up depository insurance, and requirements for issuers the cover reserve levels, asset auditing, aml/kyc, etc. Passage as-is or with minor modifications would provide an opportunity for current issuers to gain additional legal leverage and legitimacy. It would also allow existing organizations like banks, investment funds, insurance companies and the like to delve into issuance for the purposes of creating new revenue streams, tokening value-transfer platforms, and possible assets for insurance use and verification.

THE WALL STREET
And on wall street, spot ETFs continue their five-year unbroken streak of being rejected. The demand for exposure to bitcoin instruments is driving these same companies to create ETFs that track mining stocks, blockchain and crypto stocks, and anything in-between related to the space. The demand is there, but I’m personally holding to the view that until further regulator definitions (and perhaps practices of compliance and reporting?) are in place, there will be no spot ETF in the United States. Don’t waste your time holding your breath- just keep some dry powder for when the announcement comes.

I’ll close out by saying thank you to my audience. That you derive value from the information I put together keeps me going. It’s a long game, and the more you educate yourself, the better you’ll be in the end for that.

Signing off,
Brian

PS — Bell well, everyone. Talk to you soon.

Reference links:
Ar.ca 2022 report
Fireblocks Digital Asset Insider February 2022
TCB Weekly Update 23 Jan
TCB Weekly Update 30 Jan
TCB Weekly Update 6 Feb
TCB Weekly Update 13 Feb
TCB Weekly Update 20 Feb
TCB Weekly Update 27 Feb
Fidelity 2021 Digital Asset Study

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What is Bitcoin? Part 1 (You Are Here)

Brian of The Tiny Crypto Blog — Thu, 31 Mar 2022 02:49:33 GMT

(You’ve Not Missed Out)

Bitcoin is not a get-rich-quick scheme, though a lot of people have made it into that. No, bitcoin is something people can grow in wealth with, but it will take years to achieve.

Everyday, people are starting to find new uses for this digital asset and the network it operates on. It is a new technology, so it takes time to penetrate the four corners of everyday life. This is something it has been doing from its inception.

Make no mistake- an open-source software protocol that anyone can build on, that is not centrally controlled by a gatekeeper capable of blocking, discriminating, or limiting access to it, and that operates 24/7 on a global network that anyone with access to the internet can participate in…that’s powerful.

And owning the digital asset of that network at this point in time is, as it was once described, like buying Manhattan real estate in the 1700s- you’re getting in before all the added value and development takes place.

It’s a long game, and if you haven’t gotten in yet, be assured, you have not missed out.

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Rules For Success in Crypto

Brian of The Tiny Crypto Blog — Wed, 16 Feb 2022 03:48:02 GMT

Rule 1: Approach this with a 10 year timeline

Rule 2: Learn to see things in the big picture

Rule 3: Do Dollar Cost Average (DCA) buying, consistently and constantly, regardless of how little the amount is (see Rule 1).

Rule 4: Timing doesn’t matter. Time in does.

Rule 5: Regardless of how high or low prices go, always remind yourself of Rule 1 and refer to the chart below.

It’s all a matter of perspective and that’s what really counts

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Be Mindful of the Narratives.

Brian of The Tiny Crypto Blog — Sat, 18 Sep 2021 20:00:01 GMT

Social Narratives. Be mindful of getting caught in them.

Narratives are a box, presented, amplified, and reinforced by media. And if something does not fit into that box, it MUST be wrong! And anyone who embraces those things that don’t fit must be wrong too!

Ideas and the people who speak or embrace those ideas that don’t fit get ridiculed, downplayed, dismissed, belittled, cancelled, and outright censored.

This is why people who support abortion are labeled murderers. This is why people who don’t openly support rights for _______ are labeled ________. This is why someone who voted for _______ is called _________. This is why people who get a covid shot are called sheeple that don’t know any better. This is why people who didn’t get a covid shot are labeled dirty and not worthy of basic rights. This is why treatments for covid get poo-pooed. This is why people who question motives and question narratives themselves are called conspiracy theorists. Because none of these don’t fit into a narrative.

Are the values you embrace merely the talking points of a narrative? Or does the narrative just happen to reflect your values? Do you merely parrot talking points spoken everywhere else, or do your words come from a place of independent thought and consideration?

If there is ever a time to get into the practice of detaching our mind and our emotional connection to the herd(s) it is now. Thought, independent of masses that reflect our own inner values, and speaking truth to those values, is what we as a species and a people need right now.

Be mindful of the narratives.

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El Salvador, The Spark of Light

Brian of The Tiny Crypto Blog — Sat, 18 Sep 2021 19:49:37 GMT

Some words on the announcement a couple months ago of El Salvador being the first nation-state to adopt bitcoin for use as a currency by it’s residents. If you aren’t familiar, watch the twitter video and read the short thread beneath it.

This action is monumental, because Humanity asserted itself and exercised it’s sovereign voice, and in the act of doing so, grew the New world, and helped create a bridge by example for people to leave the Old world. This can’t be emphasized enough.

Nayib Bukele 🇸🇻 on Twitter: "Welcome to the future 🇸🇻 #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/j30vcZVXvJ / Twitter"

Welcome to the future 🇸🇻 #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/j30vcZVXvJ

Learn some of the back-story via this twitter thread:

Nicolas Burtey 🇸🇻⚡️ on Twitter: "#Bitcoin gets all the blame for it, because it's new, misunderstood and easy to attack. When was the last time the Fed got blamed after a bank heist for printing bills and facilitating transfer of value? 🤔 / Twitter"

Bitcoin gets all the blame for it, because it's new, misunderstood and easy to attack. When was the last time the Fed got blamed after a bank heist for printing bills and facilitating transfer of value? 🤔

Brian of Tiny Crypto - #DecentralizeEverything on Twitter: "Humanity has decided to exercise it's sovereign right to choose it's own money. #Bitcoin wins. https://t.co/6I7LazwMQ4 / Twitter"

Humanity has decided to exercise it's sovereign right to choose it's own money. #Bitcoin wins. https://t.co/6I7LazwMQ4

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There’s a Coordinated Takedown of Bitcoin Happening

Brian of The Tiny Crypto Blog — Sat, 10 Jul 2021 01:57:55 GMT

And it won’t work.

After bitcoin hit the $50–60,000 range, along with the subsequent alt-coin pump that occurred, the crypto price market experienced a prolonged decline in prices that brings it to its present-day levels (with bitcoin in a $30–40,000 range.) The FUD (Fear Uncertainty Doubt) that came out and the state- and regulatory-level attacks that began and continue to this day are part of a coordinated effort to suppress prices, and either delay or stop the adoption of decentralized cryptocurrencies by the global populace.

As we have witnessed, the bombardment of negative news has had a considerable effect. The news of another China ban, India, Russia, and a few others following suit; Binance getting sucker-punched with bans, lawsuits, and regulatory roadblocks in multiple global jurisdictions; multiple agencies and banks in the United Kingdom restricting accessibility for companies and individuals to transact with those companies; officials and regulators coming out and stating that cryptocurrencies are “dangerous”; attacks on bitcoin mining and its energy usage getting amplified; reports coming from large financial institutions/banks that basically poo-poo bitcoin and/or cryptocurrencies in general- it’s a full-court press (which is basketball terminology describing a full-force, assertive defensive tactic on the entire court.)

And it will all fail.

First, we must ask the question, “Que Bono?” (who benefits?) Every single corporation, company, government agency and individuals connected to the entities that profit from the flow of trillions of dollars in the global economy (if you want a good snapshot of this, watch the documentary “The Spider’s Web: Britian’s Second Empire”- you’ll see how big it truly is.) The source of these profits stem from the rules that have been put into place over decades and even centuries of influence and collusion, and why would someone who is profiting from this system want to make changes that takes away their gains? Very few people are willing to kill a golden goose that they benefit from; hence the monetary system we have in place today.

When a system that runs on a decentralized protocol like bitcoin comes along, it presents a threat to this system and the people entrenched within it. By participating in the bitcoin network (which is 100% voluntary,) a person consents to the rules set by the software protocol (decentralized, distributed, peer-to-peer, trustless, and censorship-resistant.) Because the code is law and cannot be changed unless there is a consensus by the users to adopt a change, the platform serves as the ultimate judge. Bitcoin does not care who you are- everyone who access the network has equal rights of usage. And BECAUSE the currently-used global monetary system has such deep inequity within it, people are opting for a more honest network, like bitcoin.

The threat is that as more people opt into bitcoin, they are less dependent on the Old System. Value (money) then gets removed from the old system. The flow of money that vested interests in the Old System rely upon for their share of the take decreases. We are at the point in time that these old-money people recognize this and are acting solely in their interest to protect their golden goose (while at the same time, they are trying to devise ways to use this asset to earn skim from the flow of money moving into and out of this asset- just look at Wall Street firms and other financial entities adopting financial instruments that take advantage of this: futures, options contracts, custodial services, Trusts and ETFs, and the like,) which brings us to today.

The takedown of prices and enthusiasm is an attempt to 1) protect the old system by stunting interest, and therefore adoption, and 2) manipulate prices to garner profits from trading.

In its life, bitcoin has shown to go through a four year cycle that coincides with the halvening, the event where every 210,000 blocks (appx four years,) the mining reward for each new block added to the ledger is cut in half. This has the effect of slowing the inflation rate that bitcoin increases by and also reduces the availability of new bitcoin coming to market. The growing scarcity of new supply plus the inclusion of new users serves as a large force in driving up the price (basic supply and demand principles.) And as the price goes up, it brings more attention and more users. The new users help drive prices higher, and we then begin to see a self-sustaining cycle take hold. This recent explosion of FUD came out right in the middle phase of this current four-year cycle, which is typically an upswing phase for prices. If the news had not come out when it did, where would prices be? It’s hard to say, but if you wanted to stunt interest in something based on price alone, the timing was uncanny.

Past price activity during the 4-year halvening cycle. Credit: BeInCrypto

The second point about manipulating the price, for purposes of earning a buck, falls in line with the price action perfectly. I’ve read before how by releasing negative news or rumors to the right ears, or published in the right places, are enough to create negative momentum, similar to a snowball rolling down a hill and becoming an avalanche. If you had had short positions or puts on the price in place, you could cash out handsomely. And when a bottom is reached, you now have new entry points for upside bets. Regardless of the truth of the news, the prices are set based on a game of human psychology, and this is something you should never forget.

The big question from this recent manipulation is: will the price recover before this halvening phase is over, or will it hover in the $30–$40,000 range it is in now? Because this 50 percent decline in price took place in the middle of a cycle, does that mean that when we reach the end of this cycle that the bear market will be less severe or almost non-existent? To be seen.

I do know this: bitcoin will survive and continue to grow in adoption, for the reasons outlined early on: it is the most honest and democratic monetary network on Earth, and by the solidity of its code, it serves as a monetary ledger and store of value that people can use outside of the system of manipulated and privileged benefit. The price can be suppressed and influenced by shady actors, but the consistency and truth that it brings to a world desperate for those very things guarantees that bitcoin and what it represents will not be snuffed out- if anything, its growth will continue, (albeit just a bit slower.)

In the end, it is all inevitable. You do not change bitcoin. Bitcoin changes you. The sooner the guardians and beneficiaries of the old system recognize this, the better for everyone.

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