Demise of the Navajo Generating Station

This was a recent question on Quora, an online question and answer platform. 

Can California go all electric vehicle, given rolling blackouts due to electricity poverty?

Quora finally found a business model!

Well, sort of: Quora CEO, co-founder, and first Facebook Chief Technology Officer, Adam D’Angelo, is using 15 years of accumulated Quora content to train his abysmal pet AI question and answer generator, Poe.  Quora holds the distinction of being the longest-extant company to attend Y-Combinator’s annual Startup Camp.

Quora secured funding from venture capital with rounds A, B, C, D, and E.  I think Quora was a member of the Y-Combinator Class of 2014 shortly after closing round C from Tiger Global Management.  Most startups are lucky to have a few hundred thousand dollars in funding at that point. Much was made of Adam having contributed $20 million of his own money to Series B. Somehow, I failed to notice that Adam’s net worth–as of 2016–was $600 million according to Forbes, which makes his $20 million investment a lot less impressive from a risk point of view. 

Open AI and Adam, Larry, Mark, and Sam

To make this post more topical, note that Adam d’Angelo is on the board of directors of OpenAI. He was one of the group of directors who voted to fire Sam Altman in November 2023; he is the only one of them to remain following Sam’s return. 

I’m curious about the conversations Adam has with his fellow OpenAI director, Larry Summers. Yes, THAT Larry Summers: Former U.S. Treasury Secretary, Robert Rubin BBF, chief of Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, Harvard University president and scolder of a young Mark Zuckerberg for feuding with the Winklevii Bros while the three  were undergraduates, and part-time D.E. Shaw employee.  Back in the days when the New York Times wasn’t failing, as our erstwhile POTUS 47 is fond of saying, the NYT Dealbook section published a most memorable article, After Harvard, a Rich Education for Larry Summers, about his year at the hedge fund. 

Larry Summers was Obama’s top pick for Federal Reserve governor of governors in 2013, when Bernanke resigned. After the Summers and Robert Rubin duo muddled U.S. economic policy for at least 15 years that spanned three consecutive presidential administrations, someone made the decision that Larry should decline the nomination. We got Yellen instead, who was no prize either.

I still can’t get over how these people know each other. Mark Zuckerberg and Adam attended Philips Exeter together; Mark knows Larry from his years as a Harvard student; Adam worked for Mark as the first Chief Technology Officer of Facebook; Sheryl Sandberg worked with Larry at the World Bank and was his Chief of Staff when he was the U.S. Treasury Secretary. Sheryl worked for Mark and Adam at Facebook; Quora were mentored by Y-Combinator while Sam was CEO there; And now, Larry, Sam, and Adam are 3 of the 5 members of the OpenAI board. I wonder how often and how avidly they discuss the yet-to-be disclosed OpenAI initial public offering. Larry is probably the only one to truly relish it. 

Regarding an all-electric California

There were a lot of answers that didn’t make much sense to me. That’s because they were the usual screeds by futurists divorced from reality. A few were decent. User Ed WD20’s answer was the best of the lot (Quora dispensed with their real names policy some years back):

How can California go completely to electric cars when we already experience brownouts and rolling blackouts due to not having enough electricity? California is decommissioning its nuclear plants. Wind and solar won’t be able to take up the slack so it will have to buy power from nuclear and coal plants in neighboring states.

I couldn’t resist assenting vehemently and elaborating in a comment. I will share here, because I certainly won’t be getting the word out about this on Quora!

California commandeers hydroelectric energy from the needy who generate it

This is no exaggeration. California has been using most of the electricity produced by Hoover Dam for decades. That seems reasonable, at first glance, as California has such a large population and correspondingly high need for electricity.

Consider the geography of the region though. The Colorado River, which Hoover Dam dams (that is not a typo!), runs along the border between the states of Arizona (where I live) and Nevada. Yet my state only gets 10% of the hydroelectric power generated by Hoover Dam. Nevada gets about the same. The state of Colorado receives 7% of the electrical bounty generated by its eponymous river. California takes 50%.

Worse yet is that states north and east of California have been pressured to decommission their nuclear and coal power plants, mostly by activists based out of California! Even the Navajo Nation’s coal-powered plant was forced to shut down in 2019.

Green New Dealer liberal Democrats didn’t care that the Navajo Generating Station (NGS) of Page, Arizona kept the reservation energy-independent, and provided a lot of conveniently located jobs, for decades. The NGS produced more energy than needed, so the extra was sold for profit through interties to the electric power grid. AND the coal was mined locally!

The Navajo Nation protested closure, to no avail. There is nothing to replace it. Too many Californians want electric vehicles and care about climate change virtue signaling more than human suffering. They tend to get their way.

I extracted some reviews of the NGS from Google Maps.

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This guy HATED the Navajo Generating Station, as it detracted from his Lake Powell experience, OMG!

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Germans and Dutch didn’t like it either. Spoiled their photography.

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None of them cared about this important detail.

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Too late, it is gone, sadly.

Recall how I said the coal was sourced locally? It was, and they did one better: the Navajo Nation owns that coal mine! The Kayenta coal mine is special. Its coal is bituminous not anthracite. Bituminous coal is naturally low-sulfur, with an average mercury content of 0.04 parts per million. That concentration is 90% less than most shale rock. Emissions were lower than 95% of other coal-fired electric plants in the United States. In the early 1990s, the EPA said to put sulfur dioxide wet scrubbers on it anyway, so they did. Then the Clean Air Act came along. Although there were no regulations requiring it, the Navajo Generating Plant voluntarily installed low NOx-SOFA burners for good measure. No, I don’t think that means they burned couches that emitted nitrous oxide but I’m uncertain of the genuine meaning so I’ll leave it at that.

The NGS was supplied with fuel by a 100% air-gapped electric railroad (air gapped from any other rail lines, that is) for transporting coal from their mine to the power plant. The Black Mesa and Lake Powell Railroad was one of the first to use an electrified line. Electricity was supplied by the Navajo Tribal Utility Authority, of course. The Kayenta Mine employed another 400 Navajo Indians, in addition to the 700 at the generating station.

These positive reviews on Google Maps by visitors over the past 15 years really touched my heart. Oleksandr T. said,

Nice and modern facility!

Derek Wong said,

LOVE IT. Can’t stop staring at it, even from miles away. Wish they gave tours.

An Italian guy described it (with help from Google Translate) lyrically:

For many it is an eco-monster that ruins Monument Valley. Leaving aside the ethical discourses, on a photographic level it is a very interesting scenario: This modern and dark cathedral that emerges from the red desert just before Page presents itself in the futuristic style of Blade Runner.

Arizona Public Service (APS) tried their best to keep the NGS in operation. It wasn’t closed for good until the Sierra Club from California had their say in Phoenix, the state capital of Arizona.

Published in: on 12 August 2024 at 7:43 am  Comments (5)  
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Location as arbiter of upward mobility in America: Forget it if you’re white and Midwestern or from the West Coast

Findings from The Economist: Depressing if true

The quotation is from Plutarch’s Lives. According to the article,

“Fifteen years ago, the American Dream was alive and well for white children born to low-income parents in much of the North-east and West Coast,” says Benjamin Goldman of Cornell University, one of the co-authors. “Now those areas have outcomes on par with Appalachia, the rustbelt and parts of the South-east.”

This in particular makes it seem that race is a major determinant, as much as location, but I am writing from the perspective of a white person.

trash container

Dumpster diving in Second Life: Closer to First Life reality 

Note that white people remain the majority of the population, at between 61.6% and 70% of the U.S. population as of 2023, according to the U.S. Census. In other words, the majority of Americans are increasingly experiencing downward mobility, with a few demographic exceptions. The study was longitudinal, with a vast sample size.

“…white children have become more likely to remain in poverty than before, whereas for black children the reverse is true… The finding comes from tracing the trajectories of 57 million children born in America between 1978 and 1992 and looking at their outcomes by the age of 27.

“This is really the first look with modern big data into how opportunity can change within a place over time,” says Mr Goldman. For children born into high-income families, household income increased for all races between birth cohorts. Yet among those from low-income families, earnings rose for black children and fell for white children.”

Class not race

There are numerous findings of interest, not the least of which is that class seems to (overall) be a greater determinant of well-being than race.

“…the earnings gap between rich and poor white children (the “class gap”) grew by 27%, whereas the earnings gap between poor white and poor black children (the “race gap”) fell by 28% …

Yet the decline of the white working class is steep, and bound to cause grief. Telling a young white man with lower life outcomes than previous generations that he is still doing better than the average black peer is about as useful as telling a young black man that he’s doing well “for a black man”.

This is followed by a statement that upward mobility is not a zero-sum game, which rings hollow to me. We are constantly informed that resources are finite. That is the dominant narrative. If so, social mobility is indeed a zero-sum game.

Finally, there is the conclusion, summarizing the ‘rags-to-riches’ tale of J.D. Vance, and that such biographies are rare, and will be increasingly so. That does ring true to me. All the more important to consider the quote from Plutarch’s Lives, very seriously.

Published in: on 10 August 2024 at 4:28 am  Leave a Comment  
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What was Joe Biden’s dad’s company and how much money did it make?

The title of this post is from a question on Quora. Most of the answers aren’t helpful:

His father was a used car salesman. Probably made about the average wage in the U.S. at the time $3,300 – $4,000 a year. His father didn’t own a company.

Not quite! To answer the Quora question, Joe Biden’s dad’s family business was the Sheen Company. It was privately-owned by the paternal side of the family.

My savvy Twitter friend, the Second City Bureaucrat and that offbeat Hanianana guy were poking around some of the same territory yesterday, delving deeper into President Biden’s family background.

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

They were a lot closer to the truth than the Quorans, but still off the mark.

Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. is neither “white trash” nor a Mayflower Society scion. He descends from a somewhat educated family with intervals of poverty and prosperity. His maternal great-grandfather, Edward Blewett, was a civil engineering graduate and class president of Lehigh College in 1879, and a Pennsylvania state senator in the early 20th century.

Joe Jr’s paternal grandfather, Ambrose Finnegan, attended Santa Clara University in what is now Silicon Valley, and returned to work as an executive in the oil and gas industry in Pennsylvania, and later, as a newspaper librarian and archivist focusing on fossil fuel-related history in the northeastern part of the state. Ambrose’s son, Ambrose Jr. died but was NOT eaten by cannibals following a military plane crash during WW2.

photo of a well-dressed man sitting in a red chair

U.S. Senator Biden at the height of his powers in 2003

It can be helpful to know a bit about these family background details, as they may provide a deeper understanding leading to empathy… maybe.
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Published in: on 12 July 2024 at 7:02 pm  Comments (2)  
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Cornucopia of mathematics

This image was originally developed as the focal point of the National Mathematics Awareness Month poster of April 2000. The theme was “Math Spans All Dimensions”. It was too lovely to be retired, and appeared again to commemorate 47 years of teaching mathematics at Brown University by Emeritus Professor and geometer Thomas Banchoff.

cornucopia

According to the artist, it is suffused with joy, just as I had hoped! It begins with mere points, then a curve that flares into a spiral, and eventually a colorful 3-D cornucopia of mathematical plenty:

suggesting the possibility of further dimensions yet to come.

I encourage paying a visit to the mathematical artwork page. There are Klein bottles, sliced torii, the spectacular Steiner’s Roman Surface and much more to be found there. 

3d math art

Roman Surface

April 2020 was the scheduled date for the most recent National Mathematics and Statistics Awareness Month. It is a biannual event, i.e. held once every two years. Sadly, it was uniquely ill-timed to coincide with the arrival of the COVID-19 global pandemic.

Possibly even worse is the fact that I saw no mention of any activities for 2022. I noticed this while browsing through the pages of the Mathematical Imagery SIG (special interest group) of the American Mathematical Society (AMS).

On the origins of Mathematics Awareness Month

As any blog reader of mine knows, I strive to find surprising information. The origin of AMS’s Mathematics and Statistics Awareness Month can be traced back to none other than… Ronald Reagan? Yes, former U.S. President Reagan established the event in 1986, by Presidential Proclamation, with the following announcement:

Despite the increasing importance of mathematics to the progress of our economy and society, enrollment in mathematics programs has been declining at all levels of the American educational system. Yet the application of mathematics is indispensable in such diverse fields as medicine, computer sciences, space exploration, the skilled trades, business, defense, and government. To help encourage the study and utilization of mathematics, it is appropriate that all Americans be reminded of the importance of this basic branch of science to our daily lives.

—via President Ronald Reagan in Proclamation 5461 – National Mathematics Awareness Week (PDF), April 17, 1986

If Reagan had only known what would happen in the future maybe he would have made it an executive order instead of a mere proclamation.

Professor Banchoff’s art work has even graced some book covers, including this one, written by my favorite statistician.

 

Published in: on 10 November 2022 at 2:38 pm  Comments (3)  
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Looking back: FBI director nominee James Comey

The Trump presidency has had its share of controversy. If anything, it has gone from one upheaval to another. Each incident, whether minor or significant, has been amplified, even distorted, for page clicks and profit by the American news media.

Trump’s favorite fake news

I used to read the online New York Times. I often commented on articles. New York Times provides a persistent URL, called a permalink, for each online reader comment. It’s a nice feature!

Too bad the paper’s content isn’t so great. I can do without The 1619 Project, 1oo pages of historical revisionism crammed into an August 2019 New York Times Magazine issue that reveals

a new version of American history in which slavery and white supremacy become the dominant organizing themes.

Former FBI director James Comey

James Comey was nominated as FBI director by President Obama in June 2013 and promptly confirmed by the US Senate.  Given the drama surrounding his role in the 2016 election (i.e. not recommending a Department of Justice investigation of Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton for her use of a private email server while Secretary of State, then reopening the inquiry a month prior to the general election), followed by President Trump’s controversial dismissal of Comey, I think the Times article covering Comey’s nomination remains of interest. (more…)

Published in: on 4 November 2020 at 10:04 pm  Comments (3)  
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US Mint ends production of one dollar coins

Awhile ago, Last Tuesday, 13 December 2011, the U.S. Mint announced that production of one dollar coins is ending.  A few one dollar coins will still be minted for collectors, as required by law:

Instead of producing 70-80 million coins per presidential administration,  the Mint will now only produce as many as collectors order.

These coins will have numismatic value, and as such will cost far more than their $1 face value. Circulating demand for $1 coins will be met with existing Federal Reserve stockpiles until they are depleted.

reverse face of 2010 Native American one dollar coin

$1 coin: Hiawatha belt bundles 5 arrows symbolizing 5 nations of the Iroquois Confederacy via US Mint 2010

Unwanted

The $1 coins would have saved hundreds of millions of dollars, as they are more durable than paper money. Despite being a more sustainable, environmentally friendly alternative to paper currency, they were never popular with the American public: 40% of $1 coins were returned, unwanted, to the Federal Reserve each year.

My favorite $1 coin featured Sacagawea, guide to Lewis and Clark, on the 2010 Native American dollar coin. Sacagawea is on the obverse side. The image above is the reverse side. (more…)

Published in: on 21 June 2020 at 8:10 am  Comments (6)  
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Not so current developments in typography

I wrote this post about the Indian rupee some years ago but never published it. Given the feeling of time suspended brought on by COVID-19 shelter-in-place orders (and suspension of normal life in general), I decided to publish rather than discard it.

My initial motivation was to come up with something interesting to say using combinations and permutations in meaning of the words “economics”, “typography”, “development”, and “current”. I DO love typography!

Currency of developing economies

Most countries have distinct identification symbols for their currencies, but until 2011, there was no official currency sign for the Indian rupee. Only `Rs’ was used to represent it.  India shared the abbreviated form of the rupee with Pakistan, Nepal, Seychelles and Sri Lanka.

India’s finance ministry organized a public competition to design a new symbol for the rupee. The successful designer was awarded Rs 2.5 lakh, but had to surrender the copyright to the government of India. The symbol chosen was

which is U+20B9 in Unicode and ₹ in HTML. It is a blend of the Devanagri ‘Ra’ and Roman ‘R’. (more…)

Published in: on 9 April 2020 at 6:03 am  Leave a Comment  
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Cutting corners on telecom infrastructure with Huawei

In January 2013, I wrote a Quora blog post about Huawei’s twisty, winding path to prominence. There were plenty of oddities, e.g. Huawei was supplier to the Taliban, and later, was nearly acquired by GOP presidential Mitt Romney… but not at the same time!

Huawei is back in the limelight. Curiously, the problem is not one of Chinese state interference but of sloppy software development. I’ll get to that, but first, let’s take an illustrated tour of the Huawei story.

A casual Huawei timeline

2001 – Huawei India faces allegations that it had developed telecommunications equipment used by the Taliban in Afghanistan.

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Huawei greeters at ITU World Telecom 2007 but probably not for the Taliban

2010 – Reuters reports that a partner of Huawei tried to sell embargoed Hewlett-Packard computer equipment to Iran‘s largest mobile-phone operator.

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Huawei at mobile device trade show convention in Iran

2011 – The Australian government excludes Huawei from tendering contracts with a government-owned corporation constructing a broadband network.

2012 – The Canadian government excludes Huawei from plans to build a secure government communications network.

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Huawei phone Pegasus, Barcelona 2012

2013 – The U.S.- China Economic & Security Review Commission advised Congress about Chinese government influence on Huawei.

2013 – Reuters investigative report following receipt of a letter from a concerned Los Alamos National Labs (LANL) employee:

[LANL] had installed devices made by H3C Technologies Co [which] raises questions about procurement practices by U.S. departments responsible for national security.

The devices were Chinese-made switches used for managing data traffic on LANL computer networks. Huawei’s relationship with Chinese military was mentioned.

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Published in: on 23 October 2019 at 5:48 am  Comments (3)  
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Why is Norway is expanding its armed forces now?

The Norwegian government posted this brief video specifically for the benefit of English-speaking audiences a few weeks ago. The YouTube comments are turned off, but the description reads as follows,

“We asked the question: Why do we need the armed forces and a military? In the end what do we, as a nation, want to happen? This is the answer.”

The video is brief and well-produced. I’ll provide that referenced answer after the jump just in case anyone will consider it a spoiler for me to do otherwise.

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Published in: on 20 January 2019 at 3:38 pm  Comments (2)  
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Yet another academic plagiarism scandal: blockchains, medical research, and patents

One must be intrinsically motivated to be ethical and honest. Integrity cannot be imposed by peer review.

This is not another SFYL (sorry for your loss) tale of cryptocurrency scamming. That is merely a grace note. Academic plagiarism can happen, regardless of whether bitcoin, blockchains, or cryptocurrency are involved.

One’s own professional community, and the moral implications of having lied and plagiarized i.e. shame, should be enough to keep scientific and other original researchers (and investigatory work in general) honest. It clearly isn’t. I make that observation based on this passage via Andrew Gelman (emphasis mine): (more…)

Published in: on 16 November 2018 at 6:28 am  Comments (7)  
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