The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index unexpectedly rose in February, increasing 1.8% to 72.1.

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Five of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through March 16, 2026.

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With the NCAA tournament beginning in just a few days, we’ve applied the bracket format to our own research. While economic theory often dictates what should be most important to investors, our reader engagement reveals which topics truly commanded investor attention over the past year.

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Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3.1% and core CPI at 2.5%.

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Builder confidence inched up in March even with persistent affordability concerns. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose one point from February to 38 this month, marking the 23rd consecutive negative reading.

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Industrial production rose 0.2% in February after an additional 0.7% increase in January. This was higher than the expected 0.1% reading and marks a 1.4% growth compared to one year ago.

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Manufacturing activity was little changed in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing March survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 7.3 points to -0.2, its first negative reading of the year.

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The second estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 0.65%, a deceleration from 4.38% for the Q3 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 0.35%, a slowdown from 3.90% for the Q3 headline number.

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Job openings rose more than expected in January, reaching 6.946 million vacancies according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This represents an increase of 396,000 from the previous month, the largest monthly increase since October 2024. The latest reading was higher than the expected 6.760 vacancies.

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Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q4 2025 GDP second estimate, two of the four components made positive contributions.

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Consumer sentiment fell for the first time in four months in March, hitting its lowest level of the 2026. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped 1.1 points (-1.9%) to 55.5 this month, coming in above the forecasted 55.0.

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Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.5% in January and was up 3.5% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 0.6% year-over-year.

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With the release of January's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up 0.93% month-over-month. When adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was up 0.66%.

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New orders for manufactured durable goods were flat at $321.19 in January, falling short of the projected 1.1% monthly growth.

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U.S. economic growth cooled more than expected in Q4 2025, according to the BEA’s latest estimate. Real GDP rose at just a 0.7% annual rate, falling well short of the 1.4% forecast and marking a steep drop-off from the 4.4% final estimate seen in Q3.

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The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, climbed 3.1% year-over-year in January, its highest level since March 2024. This figure was consistent with the forecast and reflected an acceleration from December's 3.0% reading.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), providing forecasts for energy markets. This article presents the annual production outlooks for crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), comparing the March 2026 projections against the previous month's estimates.

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Building permits fell 5.4% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.376 million, falling short of the forecast of 1.420 million.

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Housing starts jumped 7.2% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.487 million, exceeding the forecast of 1.340 million.

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The U.S. trade deficit shrank over 25% in January to _$54.46B after 30% and 80% increases in the two prior months. The latest reading missed the forecast of -$66.60B.

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This series has been updated to include the February release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $54,131, down 5.0% from over 50 years ago.

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The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for February puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.41%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.72% average since the end of the Second World War for a 32nd consecutive month. Additionally, for a 12th straight month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 3.20%.

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Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.

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Inflation held steady in February as the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index remained at 2.4% year-over-year. This is unchanged from January and was consistent with the forecast.

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Existing home sales rebounded 1.7% in February after sinking 5.9% in January. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million units, exceeding the projected 3.89 million.

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index inched down 0.5 points to 98.8, remaining above the index's historical average for a tenth straight month.

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February's employment report showed that 17.5% of total employed workers were part time and 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time.

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Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in February.

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What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?

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There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In February, total nonfarm payrolls decreased by 92,000 while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.4%.

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Nominal retail sales were down 0.16% month-over-month and up 3.16% year-over-year in January. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.33% month-over-month and up 0.75% year-over-year.

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The Advance Retail Sales Report from the Census Bureau showed consumer spending was down less than feared in January. Headline sales slipped 0.2%, a step down from December's flat reading but better than the projected 0.3% decline.

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The latest employment report showed that 92,000 jobs were lost in February, down from January's 126,000 addition. This figure was worse than the projected addition of 58,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate inched up to 4.4%, coming in higher than the forecasted 4.3% rate.

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The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a its all-time high in January 2026. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.

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Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation?

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Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the February 2026 close.

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The Milano-Cortina 2026 Winter Games concluded with a familiar hierarchy at the top of the medal table. But in the world of economic indicators, we rarely look at totals without normalizing for scale. The 2026 Winter Games are no different.

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Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.

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With the Q4 GDP advance estimate, we now have a revised look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 227.5%, the second highest level on record only behind the previous quarter's reading of 230.3%.

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Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

• The Crestmont Research P/E ratio
• The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
• The Q ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
• The relationship of the S&P composite price to a regression trendline

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Based on the February S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 42.4 is 177% above its arithmetic mean, 203% above its geometric mean, and is in the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.

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Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 27.6 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 39.0.

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Vehicle sales rebounded in February, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.751 million units. This represents a 6.3% increase from the previous month and a -1.4% drop from one year ago.

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The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its February Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 56.1. This was higher than the forecast of 53.5 and puts the index at its highest level since November 2022.

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The February U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global fell 1.0 point to 51.7, indicating modest growth in the services sector last month. This marks 37 straight months of continuous service sector expansion but signaled the weakest growth since April of last year.

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The ADP employment report revealed that 63,000 nonfarm private jobs were added in February, up from the 11,000 added in January. The latest figure was higher than the expected 50,000 addition.

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The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 2.02, down from January.

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The inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 196% above its long-term trend at the end of February.

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The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. At the end of February 2026, the weekly average stood at 4.04%.

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The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 52.4 in February, surpassing the 51.7 forecast and marking the index's second straight expansion reading

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U.S. manufacturing improved again in February, but at its weakest pace in seven months. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.4 in January to 51.6, coming in above the forecast of 51.2.

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Valid until the market close on March 31, 2026

The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) climbed to its highest level in nearly four years in February, rising 3.7 points to 57.7. This reading came in above the projected 52.0 and marks the second straight month regional business activity has expanded.

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The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity rose slightly in February. The composite index increased to 5 this month, up from 0 in January and 0 in December.

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What are consumers thinking about the economy? Their collective mood offers crucial clues for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike. Two prominent monthly surveys, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), aim to capture this vital pulse. In February, these gauges sent similar signals with consumer attitudes improving slightly but remaining near some of their lowest levels in history.

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The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® inched up in February, rising 2.2 points to 91.2. The latest reading was higher than the forecast of 87.4.

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Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed somewhat in February according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index dropped 4 points to -10, remaining in negative territory for a twelfth straight month. This month's reading was below the forecast of -8.

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Home prices increased in December as the benchmark national index rose for a fifth straight month. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase month-over-month and a 1.3% increase year-over-year.

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) rose 0.15% to a new record high, reaching 440.4 in December.

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The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for February. The general business activity index rose 1.4 points to 0.2, indicating stable business conditions.

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Margin debt continued to climb in January, reaching its eighth straight record high at $1.28 trillion. This represents a 4.4% rise from December and marks the ninth straight monthly increase.

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.18 in January from -0.21 in December. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from December, and two categories made positive contributions.

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The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2025 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%.

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Household debt increased by $191 billion (1.03%) in Q4 2025, reaching $18.78 trillion. The overall rise was driven by increases across all categories, with the largest coming from mortgage balances.

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Travel on all roads and streets increased in December. The 12-month moving average was up 0.05% month-over-month and was up 0.90% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down -0.02% month-over-month and down -1.00% year-over-year.

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How much wealthier are Americans since the Great Recession? While a look at the headlines shows a staggering 207% increase in household net worth since 2009, adjusting for inflation tells a much different story.

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When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?

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While every market downturn is unique, history offers a crucial lens for understanding recovery. This chart series provides a comprehensive overlay of the Four Bad Bears in U.S. history since the $1929$ peak, comparing their recovery paths through the S&P $500$'s close on December 31, $2025$.

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Now that 2025 has come to an end, let’s take a look at the top 10 most-read charts of the year.

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The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of December 12th, the index was at 6.71 with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.

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Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for November. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.6%, its highest level since 2021. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 64,000.

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The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.

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Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.

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The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of September, the labor force participation rate is at 62.4%, up from 62.3% the previous month.

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Last week’s economic data sent mixed signals. Consumer sentiment plummeted to a near-record low on economic anxiety, and the manufacturing sector continued its long contraction.

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Secondary economic indicators have taken on heightened importance amid the ongoing government shutdown. Read through a handful of these secondary reports from the week of October 13th-18th.

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The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting from 1867 to 2024.

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What is the relationship between education and household income? The Census Bureau’s 2024 annual survey data provides valuable insights into this question. The median household income for individuals aged 25 and older was $85,580, but how does this figure vary based on educational attainment?

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Last week's economic data presented a challenging picture for the U.S. economy with key inflation reports delivering conflicting signals and a timely labor market indicator added to the narrative of a softening labor market. Read through the major economic news from the week of September 8th - 12th.

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The median US income in 2024 was $83,730, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 274% rise over the 40-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2024 dollars, the 1984 median is $60.420 and the increase drops to 39%.

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Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.

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The Census Bureau recently released its annual report on household income data for 2024. The mean (average) household income for the middle quintile rose 4.5% to $84,390. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which date back to 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.

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The U.S. labor market continued to show signs of cooling, with all major labor indicators pointing to a softening trend and a weak hiring environment. Read through the major economic news from the week of September 2nd - 5th.

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Last week was dominated by a major event in the financial world, the Jackson Hole symposium, and the subsequent reaction from the markets. Read through the major economic news form the week of August 18th - 22nd.

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Last week, the S&P 500 had a rally that took it to three straight record highs but the momentum cooled as economic data painted a complex picture. Read through the major economic news from the week of August 11th-15th.

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Read through the major economic news from the week of July 28th-August 1st.

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Now that we're more than halfway through 2025, let's take a look at the top 10 most-read charts so far for the year.

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Four of the nine indexes on our emerging markets watch list have posted gains through April 11, 2025. Chile's IPSA is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 11.2%. Brazil's IBOVESPA is in second with a year to date gain of 6.3% while Mexico's BMV IPC is in third with a year to date gain of 3.5%.

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In the week ending March 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 221,000. This represents a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 234,000 forecast.

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Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC which includes annual data from 1984 to 2023. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.

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In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased slightly in November. The index rose 0.3% from the previous month to 99.7 after eight consecutive monthly declines.

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As 2023 comes to an end, let’s revisit the top 10 most-read AP charts of the year.

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AP Charts and Analysis will be offline this week due to the holidays. We will resume publishing economic and market analysis and publish missed news on 12/26.

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The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for September is 2.9%, down 0.1% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.2%, down 0.2% from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.7% and Core CPI is 4.2%.

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Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The September average of the five districts is -6.5, down from the previous month.

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We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q2 2023 third estimate) and initial jobless claims through 9/23.

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The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on new orders for durable goods for August. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.

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The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July. All four categories made negative contributions in August.

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their August findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and permits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.

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The latest monthly employment report showed 187,000 nonfarm jobs were added in August. An industry breakdown of that number shows a gain of 151,000 service-providing jobs and a gain of 36,000 goods-producing jobs.

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Here's the top 10 most popular AP Charts of 2022.

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Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 145.6, up from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at -10.3, up from last week and the WLI YoY is at -4.92%, down slightly from last week.

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The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-November, are now available.

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The team at HSH.com, features a periodic update entitled "The Salary You Must Earn to Buy a Home in the 50 Largest Metro Areas". The key question is:

"How much salary do you need to earn in order to afford the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home in your metro area?"

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Next week we are taking a hiatus from regularly scheduled updates and will be publishing a series of articles based on the Census Bureau's 2020 Income and Poverty Report. Stay Tuned!

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In yesterday morning's ADP employment report we got the September estimate of 568K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over August's revised 340K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Let's take a look at major sectors in the ETF world since February 21, 2020. All but two sectors, hotels and airlines, have recovered since then. Retail has bounced back the fastest, while hotels and airlines are still lagging. Individuals are returning to travel rapidly as more vaccines are administered.

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The S&P 500 ETFs tracked include State Street Global Advisors’ SPDR (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

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As a result of the COVID-19 virus and its effects on the market, here's a short analysis of major ETF market sectors and the S&P 500 since February 21.

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We are having some software issues and as a result, all economic news is delayed slightly. We will back-publish all missed updates once this is resolved. Thank you!

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Millennials make up the largest percentage of our population today, yet have seen some of the lowest labor force participation growth and highest unemployment out of all age groups since the turn of the century. This has larger implications when coupled with slow wage growth, high home prices, and mounting student debt.

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In July of 2015, CNN Money featured an article with the optimistic and intriguing title "More American teens are getting jobs. That's good for everyone." After reading the article, we revised one of our monthly charts on Labor Force Participation to include the age 16-19 cohort -- one we elsewhere combine with the 20-24 year-olds. We've updated this article to include the latest employment data.

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Cover retail mutual funds and ETFs in client IRAs, Roth IRAs, and taxable brokerage accounts to deliver reliable, sustainable income streams your clients can't outlive.

The big economic number tomorrow will be the Q2 Third Estimate for GDP. The last two quarters are behind us with their real annualized rates of 2.9% in Q4 2017 and 2.3% in Q1. What do economists see in their collective crystal ball for Q2 Third Estimate? Let's take a look at the latest GDP forecasts from the latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month.

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This is the second in a multi-part series where we examine pundits' opinions and predictions on the latest topics.

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The bitcoin and cryptocurrency craze has everyone talking. Here's what some of the big names in the industry are saying.

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Many of our readers have been experiencing 404 errors on dshort pages. These pages have not disappeared, they are merely being edited and as a result of our current process, it shows as a broken page. Please be sure to check back within a few days to see the newest update.

We are working on a new system that will prevent these errors.

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With the Republican tax bill looming, we've updated this article to include the latest figures and estimates for federal debt and taxes.

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The LMCI is a relatively recent indicator developed by Federal Reserve economists to assess changes in the labor market conditions. As of August 3, 2017, updates of the labor market conditions index (LMCI) have been discontinuedThe LMCI is derived from a dynamic factor model that extracts the primary common variation from 19 labor market indicators.

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An ETF sponsor is looking for 30 advisors to participate in an online focus group to be hosted on APViewpoint. The purpose of this focus group is to gather advisors’ observations on the ETF marketplace. Click for more info.

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If you're attending this week's Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, come visit us at booth #360. Meet members of our team, including CEO/Editor in Chief Bob Huebscher, National Account Manager Becky Allen and dshort's Research Director Jill Mislinski.

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Many reports on the cost of education and affordability over the last decade have focused on the rapid growth of educational debt. Here we examine student aid, costs of undergraduate education, and enrollment over time. We've used data from the College Board's annual Trends in Higher Education publications. We've updated this report with the latest data.

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College Tuition and Fees constitute one of the biggest threats to our economic outlook. Here is a chart of data from the relevant Consumer Price Index sub-component reaching back to 1978, the earliest year Uncle Sam provides a breakout for College Tuition and Fees. As an interesting sidebar, we've thrown in the increase in the cost of purchasing a new car as well as the more substantial increase for the broader category of medical care, both of which pale in comparison.

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We continue our real estate research with a study on metropolitan affordability in the rental and mortgage markets. Once again, we tap into Zillow Group’s wealth of data and use a data set that includes mortgage affordability, rental affordability, and price-to-income ratios for the five most populous US cities with comparison to the national median.

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According to the Census Bureau, 84% of U.S. citizens live in Metropolitan Statistical Areas - defined as a region with at least one urbanized area of population 50,000 or more. Here we look at home values in the top five metro areas over a 20 year period using data from Zillow Group. We focus on Zillow Sales prices and the Zillow Home Value Index, a house price index that uses Zillow data.

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Note from dshort: Since the middle of the last century, there have been nine bear markets in the S&P 500 using the 20% selloff of the "bear-market" benchmark. There have been two additional corrections that came within a hair's breadth of the -20% qualification. Here are snapshots of those official bears and initial recoveries. Rather than scrolling down, you can click on a chart for an enlarged version and a slide-show of the series.

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Note from dshort: We've updated this commentary in the wake of the Census Bureau's release last month of the 2015 annual household income data from the Current Population Survey.

One of our favorite discussions on APViewpoint, which addressed "The Sad State of Happiness", included an indirect reference to a popular 2010 academic study by psychologist Daniel Kahneman and economist Angus Deaton. Their topic was the correlation between annual household income and day-to-day contentment. They analyzed more than 450,000 total responses to a Gallup weekly survey of households across the 50 states and DC. The survey was conducted in 2009.

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With the US presidential election about five weeks away, the popular press has feasted on the campaign events and survey results, with the primary focus on the Trump spectacle. The fundamental question remains: How did The Don succeed in winning the Republican Party nomination in the first place? And how could he remain in contention in the wake of his bizarre campaign rhetoric? A provocative new report from Sentier Research gives us insight into what might be the key factor in the Trump phenomenon: A secular decline in the financial well-being of white working class males and what we can infer as the resulting anger directed at the political powers that be.

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Visitors to Advisor Perspectives will recognize the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as a regular feature in our long-term charts of market and economic happenings. We're referring to the data series made popular in recent years by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, not to be confused with the S&P Composite 1500, an index that combines the S&P 500, the S&P Mid Cap 400, and the S&P Small Cap 600. Here's a an overlay of the Dow and the S&P Composite from May of 1896, the month the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of 12 stocks was established.

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With the 2016 Rio Olympics in the news and on many minds, we decided to investigate whether particular indicators were a predictor of performance.

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According to this system, the market is now tradable and a signal to enter and continue all long trading. The OEXA200R is at 84% and all three secondary indicators are positive.

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Often conversations about home buying end up in discussions on the high cost of homes today and their affordability – or lack thereof. We decided to take a look at the long-term trends in home prices in comparison to income and found that incomes have been stagnant since the early 1970s, while home prices have risen dramatically in comparison.

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The big economic news on Friday was the Department of Labor's Employment Report for March. The mainstream press focused on two numbers: the 215K new jobs and the 5% unemployment rate. Over the next few days we'll dig in a bit deeper to look at some of the underlying employment demographics, which in many ways give a greater understanding of employment conditions. But the much more significant economic news on Friday was the Federal Reserve's noon release of the disturbingly negative annual benchmark revisions to Industrial Production.

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What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: "Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014". Last year the median (middle) household income was $53,657 — a 0.13% year-over-year increase that shrinks to -1.48% when adjusted for inflation. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.

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This is the second installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios by Ed Easterling. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

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We're delighted to welcome Ed Easterling with this first installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

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