Inspired by Gessler's March 14, 2026 comments on India's oil and gas prices, Pete has done some research on how India's energy needs relate to Russia and, to a lesser extent, Iran.
Says Gessler: "In India the petrol/diesel prices haven't moved up,
largely because the Indian Government and oil companies had maintained a
somewhat elevated price for motor fuels for a long time, regardless of the
price of oil dropping in the international markets after previous disruptions
like the Ukraine war. So the oil companies have been sitting on a cash surplus
for years and don't mind burning through a bit of it now in order to stabilize
the market."
[Pete Background: India imports 82% of its oil needs. India’s strategic petroleum reserves may be 87 days. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_and_gas_industry_in_India#Strategic_petroleum_reserves
India is the second biggest oil importer after China and is highly dependent on imported crude oil. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_and_gas_industry_in_India#Foreign_trade India is the third largest consumer of crude oil in the world, after the US and China. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_and_gas_industry_in_India#Consumption https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_and_gas_industry_in_India
India has significantly increased its Russian oil imports since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine due to deep discounts, making Russia a top supplier.[66][67] In 2025, several top US officials and political figures accused India of effectively financing Russia’s war in Ukraine by serving as a major buyer of Russian energy.[68][69] In late 2025, the US, EU, and UK significantly escalated sanctions against Russia's two largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, to curtail the financing of the war in Ukraine.[70]
These
measures have significantly disrupted India's oil trade, leading to a sharp
decline in imports from these specific entities.[71]On
19 December 2025, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) conducted a
first-of-its-kind long-range drone strike on a "shadow fleet" oil tanker in
the Mediterranean Sea, targeting a vessel that had recently delivered oil to
India.[72]
[But] On March 13, 2026, to help deal with the economic costs of the war, the US temporarily lifted restrictions on the sale of Russian oil. However, oil prices have barely been affected by this.
India’s
top oil suppliers in 2024. by country, were https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_and_gas_industry_in_India#Oil_imports_by_source_country
US$51.3 Billion from Russia, $28.6 Billion
from Iraq, $19.3 Billion from Saudi Arabia, $13.7 Billion from the UAE, and $5 Billion
from the US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Russia_relations#Cooperation_in_the_energy_sector ]
Says Gessler: "The bigger problem here is liquid natural gas (LNG) and its derivatives liquid petroleum gas (LPG)
and compressed natural gas (CNG) etc. Local production of natural gas only meets about 40% of India's
requirement and most of the remainder used to come from the Persian Gulf. Now
there's a gas shortage especially for commercial establishments as the Indian Government
wants to prioritize domestic (cooking/heating) [a sensitive public issue] supply until shipments from
other places (US, Russia) can come in."
[Pete Background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Russia_relations#Cooperation_in_the_energy_sector
In 2025 the US threatened or imposed
secondary sanctions on India for buying Russian oil and gas,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_North%E2%80%93South_Transport_Corridor
the
International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) is already
being used to transport Russian fuel, including gas and oil, to Iran and beyond
by rail. The 7,200 km multi-modal network serves as a strategic,
sanctions-resilient route for energy and commodities, connecting Russia to Iran
and India via the Caspian Sea and central Asian rail links.
·
Active
Shipments: Russian fuel, including gasoline
and oil, has already been transported to Iran by rail along the eastern branch
of the INSTC, with roughly 30,000 tons moved in early 2023.
·
Infrastructure
Growth: Russia and Iran are constructing
the 162-km Rasht-Astara railway to physically connect their rail networks and
boost the corridor’s capacity.
·
Strategic
Goal: The INSTC aims to reduce trade
costs and times by 30-40%, bypassing traditional Western-controlled maritime
routes.
·
Projected
Growth: By 2030, the INSTC capacity is
expected to carry up to 25 million tons of cargo annually, including major
shipments of oil, gas, and fertilizers.
Slightly off topic: Around 2014 Russia agreed to build more than 20 nuclear reactors over the next 20 years in India. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-30978152 The Russian president stated in an interview, "It contains plans to build over 20 nuclear power units in India, as well as cooperation in building Russia-designed nuclear power stations in third countries, in the joint extraction of natural uranium, production of nuclear fuel and waste elimination."
Gazprom,
the Russian company, and Gas Authority of India have collaborated in joint
development of a block in the Bay of
Bengal. Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project with
two units of 1,000 MW each is a good example of Indian–Russian nuclear
energy cooperation. Both sides have expressed interest in expanding
cooperation in the energy sector. In December 2008, Russia and India signed an
agreement to build civilian nuclear reactors in India during a visit by the
Russian president, Dmitri Medvedev, to New Delhi.[110]
