The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Moderate Risk for a good chunk of the Mid Atlantic Region.
Associated with the Moderate Risk is a 15%, hatched tornado threat ring that extends from South Carolina into Maryland. This also includes a “Sig Severe” ring.
The wind threat is widespread as well, with a large “Sig Severe” ring (now labeled “Cig Severe” [sic], perhaps speech to text?).
The hail threat is not as high; this is typical of low-elevation threats where the hail simply has to fall through more warm air.
To summarize the SPC: A strong line of storms along a frontal boundary will push east. As it enters areas of available low level moisture, storms will intensify. The environment is deeply sheared, so storms will quickly become severe. The dominant mode will be clusters and embedded supercells over discrete mode cells.
This threat is already ongoing, and moving quickly. I won’t spend a lot of time on a detailed forecast, as by the time I’ve looked at all the data, it will be old news.
This is a particularly difficult chase, for those chasing. The road network is awful, visibility is limited, and the population density is very high. Chasers will be limited by traffic, river (and Chesapeake Bay) crossings and trees. Expect power outages, trees and power lines across the road, traffic signals out of service (and lousy driving) as a result of the high wind threat.
Also, it’s not like there are discrete cells- it’s a fast moving line of mess. What makes a storm rotate in one spot, versus ten miles north will be unpredictable without extensive knowledge of the terrain and the variables, none of which will be available at the speed required to intercept. Unlike the open, Great Plains, a ten mile displacement means not being able to see the storm at all, versus seeing and correcting your course. What you might get is a good shelf cloud between the trees.
It is a bit surreal seeing the places where I grew up under a Moderate Risk- I lived in Westminster, MD, just at the northern edge of the threat (I lived south of town), Colonial Beach, VA, and King George, VA, all of which are in the threat area today.
Those in the area should stay tuned to their reliable sources of weather information. Those chasing today- head on a swivel, you won’t have much visibility and your navigation skills will be put to the test. Don’t get bunched up at a river crossing or on a state road with trees on both sides.
Yesterday was mild, partly sunny and still in Rio Rancho. In the evening, it got windy.
This morning, Rio Rancho is mild, with sunny (but dusty) skies, and strong, westerly winds. My weather station in Rio Rancho shows:
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecaster’s discussion says a strong, spring trough will impact the area. Most of the cold air will remain to our north, but strong winds will impact most of the state today, strongly increasing the fire risk. Some colder air will infiltrate the northern and northeastern parts of the state. Once the trough leaves, high pressure is expected to settle over the region, leading to well above average temperatures for the rest of the week.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 32 F. The winds will be from the north at 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph, but then decreasing to 5-15 mph after midnight. Rio Rancho is under a Wind Advisory at 4 PM, and a Red Flag Warning until 8 PM.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 73 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 25-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 36 F. The winds will be from the north at 15-25 mph, decreasing to 5-15 mph after midnight. Socorro will be under a Red Flag Warning until 8 PM.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 25-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 33 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, becoming westerly at 5-10 mph after midnight. Magdalena will be under a Red Flag Warning until 8 PM.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 25-30 mph, gusting to 45 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 24 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, becoming northerly at 5-10 mph after midnight. Mountainair will be under a High Wind Warning until 4 PM as well as a Red Flag Warning until 8 PM.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued wind and fire weather products for the entire watch area for extending through tomorrow evening. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk for the western half of the state. The trough will boost winds over an already-dry region. As the westerly winds cross the mountains, downslope flow will drop humidity even lower.
The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the region. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The upper-level water vapor imagery shows the strong trough over the Great Plains. If you look closely, you can see a front slipping into the northeastern part of the state.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild temperatures and low humidity. The skies are clear (according to the sensors). The winds are strong and from the northwest.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are in the middle of a strong southwest to northeast pressure gradient. The RAP shows this gradient will grow even stronger over the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong northwesterly flow, becoming strong northerly flow this afternoon.
The NAM 700 mb chart shows Cold Air Advection (CAA) as a back door cold front over the northeastern part of the state this afternoon.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows Cold Air Advection (CAA) as a back door cold front over the northeastern part of the state this afternoon.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, snow showers and thunderstorms are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post
The RRFS simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, snow showers and thunderstorms are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, snow showers and thunderstorms are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain will be unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM winter weather charts show no additional snowfall. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM temperature chart shows the high temperatures are expected to reach into the lower 60s F.
The Nested NAM temperature chart also shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 30s F overnight.
The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows dewpoints will be in the single digits.
The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds over the entire state, all day. They will taper off later this evening.
The HRRR simulated cloud cover chart shows partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few, light clouds off and on this afternoon and evening.
The back door cold front will only really impact the northeastern corner of the state, though temperatures will be a few degrees colder everywhere. The big story today are the strong winds- check out the sharp pressure gradient on the chart. As the trough moves out of the region, it will lessen the impact of the cold air. The winds will decrease this evening.
I will try to spend as little time outside as possible, based on the strong winds and blowing dust. However, I will need to run a few errands today. I will skip the bike ride today and do that perhaps Wednesday. It’s our spring break at both schools, so I will probably spend most of the week at home.
This morning, Rio Rancho is mild, with partly cloudy skies, and light, easterly winds. My weather station in Rio Rancho shows:
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecaster’s discussion says winds will increase this afternoon and evening, becoming damaging tomorrow in many locations. The fire weather threat will increase all afternoon and evening, peaking tomorrow.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-20 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 47 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 50 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph. Socorro will be under a Red Flag Warning from 9 AM tomorrow until 8 PM tomorrow.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 74 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-20 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 46 F. The winds will be from the west at 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph. Magdalena will be under a Red Flag Warning from 9 AM tomorrow until 8 PM tomorrow.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 45 F. The winds will be from the west at 20-5 mph, gusting to 35 mph. Mountainair will be under a High Wind Watch from 3 AM tomorrow until 4 PM tomorrow, as well as a Red Flag Warning from 9 AM tomorrow until 8 PM tomorrow.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued wind and fire weather products for the entire watch area for extending through tomorrow evening. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk for the western half of the state. A mid-level shortwave will increase winds over a dry region.
The visible satellite imagery shows scattered, light clouds over the entire state.
The upper-level water vapor imagery shows an approaching trough, currently over the Basin and Range region.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild temperatures and low humidity. The skies are clear (according to the sensors). The winds are light and generally westerly.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under low pressure and no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows pressure falling over the northern Great Plains, increasing the southwest to northeast pressure gradient over the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state today.
The NAM 700 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, snow showers and thunderstorms are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post
The RRFS simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, snow showers and thunderstorms are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, snow showers and thunderstorms are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain will be unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM winter weather charts show no additional snowfall. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM temperature chart shows the high temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 70s F.
The Nested NAM temperature chart also shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 40s F overnight.
The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows dewpoints will be in the 20s F.
The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds over the northeastern part of the state, and breezy conditions, statewide.
The HRRR simulated cloud cover chart shows increasing clouds this afternoon and evening.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few thicker clouds over the northern half of the state this afternoon and evening.
Today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, though the cloud cover will increase as well. As the low in the Great Plains deepens, the winds will increase starting this afternoon and continuing into tomorrow. Also, the fire weather risk increases significantly tomorrow.
I am running behind today. I’ve already been to church, and now I am home working on this and a few other projects. JoAnna and I will probably go on a walk in a few minutes, and then perhaps to dinner this evening. It’s currently a nice day, and the winds haven’t increased yet, so maybe a walk will be a good change of scenery.
This morning, Rio Rancho is cold, with clear skies, and light, westerly winds. My weather station in Rio Rancho shows:
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecaster’s discussion says northwest flow will dominate for the next few days. Yesterday’s surface low has moved southeast, and a slightly weaker one will form today over the same region. Gusty winds are expected over the central highlands, which will increase the fire weather threat there. The fire weather threat will expand this weekend.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest at 15-20 mph this afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 41 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 42 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly by midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 73 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 43 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10 mph, becoming southwesterly by midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 71 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 40 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Red Flag Warning for the central highlands, with Fire Weather Watches up for most of the state starting tomorrow. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time. The enhanced infrared imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The upper-level water vapor imagery shows northwesterly flow over the state.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cold temperatures and low humidity. The skies are clear (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map is unavailable at this time.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows light to moderate, northerly flow over the state today.
The NAM 700 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, snow showers and thunderstorms are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post
The RRFS simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, snow showers and thunderstorms are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, snow showers and thunderstorms are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain will be unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM winter weather charts show no additional snowfall. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM temperature chart shows the high temperatures are expected to reach into the mid 70s F.
The Nested NAM temperature chart also shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 40s F overnight.
The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows dewpoints will be in the 10s F.
The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows some light breezes today, but damaging winds are not expected.
The HRRR simulated cloud cover chart shows clear skies, all day. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows clear skies, all day. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Sunny skies and some light winds are expected, though the winds may increase this afternoon. The fire weather threat is increasing, but will be a much bigger deal tomorrow.
I am currently commuting to Belen on the train, and will take the shuttle to Socorro after that. Once I am in Socorro, I have a meeting, but after that, I will mess with the Malibu for a few minutes. I might have a radiator leak, and if I do, I will drive it to the repair shop and then walk back to campus. I might get to spend some time outside today after all.
Yesterday was mild, sunny and still in Magdalena and Socorro.
This morning, Rio Rancho is cold, with clear skies, and light, northwesterly winds. My weather station in Rio Rancho shows:
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecaster’s discussion says northwest flow will dominate for the next few days. Each afternoon, surface troughing on the lee side of the mountains will cause some deeper mixing and increased winds, also raising the fire weather threat.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 73 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 41 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 40 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 69 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly this afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 39 F. The winds will be from the west at 10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 67 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 38 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Red Flag Warning for the northeastern part of the state. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk for the northeastern part of the state. Deep mixing will bring some of the strong mid-level winds down to the surface over an already-dry region, hence the risk.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time. The enhanced infrared imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The upper-level water vapor imagery shows northwesterly flow over the state.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cold temperatures and low humidity. The skies are clear (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map is unavailable at this time.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows light to moderate, northwesterly flow over the state today.
The NAM 700 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, snow showers and thunderstorms are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post
The RRFS simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, snow showers and thunderstorms are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, snow showers and thunderstorms are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain will be unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM winter weather charts show no additional snowfall. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM temperature chart shows the high temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 60s F.
The Nested NAM temperature chart also shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 40s F overnight.
The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows dewpoints will vary, but will be in the 20s F in the northern half of the state and in the 30s F in the southern half.
The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows breezy conditions, over the northeastern half of the state, and calmer winds over the southwestern half.
The HRRR simulated cloud cover chart shows a few, light clouds over the northern edge of the state this afternoon.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows clear skies, all day. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will be similar to yesterday, though the fire weather risk has increased for the northeastern quadrant of the state. They will experience stronger winds than the Albuquerque Metro area. Temperatures will trend a little above seasonal averages. The Metro area (plus Socorro, Magdalena, Mountainair, etc) should be quite pleasant today.
I will commute to Socorro today on the train and bus and then drive to Magdalena for the day. I’ll do the reverse in the evening. I won’t spend much time outside today at all. I might try to go for a walk in the afternoon around campus, but will avoid it if it is windy.
Yesterday was mild, cloudy and still in Magdalena. We even had a little rain.
This morning, Rio Rancho is mild, with only a few light clouds, and light, northerly winds. My weather station in Rio Rancho shows:
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecaster’s discussion says northwest flow will dominate as the upper-level low exits the region. Behind the low, a back door cold front will drop through eastern New Mexico, lowering temperatures to below seasonal averages and contributing to gusty winds and increased fire weather threat.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 69 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-20 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 37 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 74 F. The winds will be from the north at 15-20 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 38 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 65 F. The winds will be from the north at 15-25 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 36 F. The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph, becoming southerly at 5-10 mph by midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 65 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 33 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph, becoming southerly at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several wind related products. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time. The enhanced infrared imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The upper-level water vapor imagery shows northwesterly flow over the state. The low has opened up and moved out of the region.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cool temperatures and moderate humidity. The skies are clear (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients so far this morning. The RAP shows pressure rising, particularly over the Great Plains, leading to a northeast to southwest pressure gradient across the northern part of the state over the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows light to moderate, northwesterly flow over the state today.
The NAM 700 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows Cold Air Advection (CAA) as a back door cold front pushing into the eastern part of the state.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, snow showers and thunderstorms are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post
The RRFS simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, snow showers and thunderstorms are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, snow showers and thunderstorms are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain will be unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM winter weather charts show no additional snowfall. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM temperature chart shows the high temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 60s F.
The Nested NAM temperature chart also shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 30s F overnight.
The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows dewpoints will vary, but will be in the 10s F in the northwestern quadrant of the state and in the 20s F elsewhere.
The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows breezy conditions, statewide, tapering off this evening.
The HRRR simulated cloud cover chart shows very few clouds over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows clear skies, all day. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will be a few degrees colder and breezier than yesterday. It will also be sunny, with virtually no chance of precipitation. The back door cold front will be limited to the eastern plains, though the highs everywhere will be impacted a little.
I will commute to Socorro today on the train and bus and then drive to Magdalena for half of the day. Then, I’ll go to NMT, and teach there. I’ll do the reverse in the evening. I won’t spend much time outside today at all. I might try to go for a walk in the afternoon around campus, but will avoid it if it is windy.
Yesterday was mild, sunny and still in Socorro. I went for a brief walk around campus.
This morning, Rio Rancho is mild, with cloudy skies, and light, southeasterly winds. My weather station in Rio Rancho shows:
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecaster’s discussion says the upper-level low will begin to quickly move east, perhaps crossing through southern New Mexico later this afternoon. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible south of I-40 as the low passes, and gusty winds are possible, particularly in the southeastern quadrant of the state.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 20% chance of showers and a high temperature of 70 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-15, becoming westerly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 43 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 40% chance of showers and a high temperature of 70 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 46 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and a high temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-20 mph. This evening will have decreasing clouds, with a 20% chance of showers and a low temperature of 40 F. The winds will be from the west at 20-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 40% chance of showers and a high temperature of 64 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 39 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Wind Advisory for one county in the southeastern part of the state. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time. The enhanced infrared imagery shows heavy cloud cover over the western half of the state, and lighter clouds over the east.
The upper-level water vapor imagery shows an upper-level moving east over northern Mexico, just south of Arizona.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cool temperatures and moderate humidity. The skies are a mix of clouds and clear (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients so far this morning. The RAP shows diurnal heating will lower pressure everywhere, creating a slight west to east pressure gradient over the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows varied flow over the state as the closed low weakens and opens up.
The NAM 700 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart shows scattered showers, particularly over the southern half of the state this afternoon and the southeastern half of the state by this evening.
The RRFS simulated reflectivity chart shows a few, very isolated showers south of I-40, tapering off by this evening.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, statewide, until late this evening.
The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain will largely be limited to the southwestern quadrant of the state.
The Nested NAM winter weather charts show no additional snowfall. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM temperature chart shows the high temperatures are expected to reach into the lower 70s F.
The Nested NAM temperature chart also shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 40s F overnight.
The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows dewpoints will remain in the 20s F for the northern half of the state and the 30s F for the southern half.
The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows breezy conditions, especially in the southeastern quadrant of the state.
The HRRR simulated cloud cover chart shows mostly cloudy skies, statewide, all day.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows partly cloudy skies, statewide.
Today will be quite the change from last week. There is a non-zero chance of rain, statewide, and mostly cloudy skies are expected as the low passes to our south. It will be a bit breezier, especially in the southeastern part of the state. Temperatures will remain mild.
I will commute to Socorro today on the train and bus and then drive to Magdalena. Then, I’ll do the reverse in the evening. I won’t spend much time outside today at all.
Yesterday was mild, sunny and still in Rio Rancho. I went for a bike ride and then putzed in the garden for a little bit.
This morning, Rio Rancho is cool, with sunny skies, and light, variable winds. My weather station in Rio Rancho shows:
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecaster’s discussion says the ridge is expected to move east, out of the region. As it does, moisture will increase, causing numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop this evening. However, this afternoon, a lee side low will ramp up the winds and fire weather threat east of the central mountain range.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 72 F. The winds will be light and variable, becoming southwesterly at 5-10 mph in the afternoon. This evening will have increasing clouds, with a 30% chance of showers and a low temperature of 44 F. The winds will be from the south at 5 mph, becoming northerly by midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-15 mph, becoming southerly at 10-15 mph in the afternoon. This evening will have increasing clouds, with a 40% chance of showers and a low temperature of 44 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, becoming northwesterly after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 69 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will have increasing clouds, with a 50% chance of showers and a low temperature of 40 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, becoming westerly after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 69 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph. This evening will have increasing clouds, with a 40% chance of showers and a low temperature of 39 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Red Flag Warning for the northeastern quadrant of the state today. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk for the northeastern corner of the state today. Winds are expected to increase ahead of the approaching trough and ahead of the moisture advection, meaning windy dry conditions over this region for yet another day.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time. The enhanced infrared imagery shows very few clouds over the region. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The upper-level water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over Baja, wobbling east, leading to a complicated flow pattern over New Mexico.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cool temperatures and low humidity. The skies are clear (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows there is a moderate west to east pressure gradient across the northern part of the state. The RAP shows diurnal heating will lower pressure everywhere, weakening this gradient over the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, southwesterly flow over the state by this afternoon.
The NAM 700 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart shows showers beginning to fire late this afternoon over the southwestern quadrant of the state and spreading north and east overnight.
The RRFS simulated reflectivity chart shows a few, very isolated showers over the western edge and central part of the state overnight.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers over the southwestern quadrant of the state this evening, with coverage increasing to the north and east overnight.
The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows much of the state could see some light rainfall through tomorrow morning. The southwestern quadrant of the state has the best chances.
The Nested NAM winter weather charts show no additional snowfall. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM temperature chart shows the high temperatures are expected to reach into the lower 70s F.
The Nested NAM temperature chart also shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 40s F overnight.
The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows dewpoints will increase from the 10s F into the 20s F, maybe even reaching the 30s F in the southwestern quadrant of the state this evening.
The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows light winds over the Albuquerque Metro area, but stronger winds over the northeastern quadrant of the state off and on today.
The HRRR simulated cloud cover chart shows increasing clouds this afternoon and evening, seeping in from the south.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows increasing clouds this afternoon and evening, beginning in the southwest and spreading northerly and easterly overnight.
Today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. As the closed low moves east, cloud cover will begin to increase, starting in the southwestern quadrant of the state. A few showers are possible as this system begins to impact the region. Farther east, stronger winds are possible off and on today, extending the fire weather threat for a few more hours.
I will split today between Magdalena and NMT. Today is going to be a giant mess, and I probably won’t spend any time outside.
Yesterday was cool, still and mostly sunny. I drove from Mountainair to Magdalena to Rio Rancho, but didn’t spend much time outside at all.
This morning, Rio Rancho is cool, with sunny skies, and light, variable winds. My weather station in Rio Rancho shows:
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecaster’s discussion says dry, breezy conditions are likely today, especially east of the central mountain chain. Temperatures will continue to rebound, thanks to the ridging that lingers over the region.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 64 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 35 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 71 F. The winds will be light and variable, becoming southerly at 5-10 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 40 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 37 F. The winds will be from the south at 10 mph, becoming westerly after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 64 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 35 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Red Flag Warning for the northeastern quadrant of the state today. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather Risk for the northeastern corner of the state today. They mention lee troughing is expected to deepen and the pressure drop this afternoon.
The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The upper-level water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low west Baja, wobbling east, leading to a complicated flow pattern over New Mexico.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cool temperatures and low humidity. The skies are clear (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map is unavailable at this time.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, varied flow over the state today.
The NAM 700 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, thunderstorms and snow showers are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The RRFS simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, snow showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, thunderstorms and snow showers are unlikely. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows precipitation is highly unlikely. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM winter weather charts show no additional snowfall. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM temperature chart shows the high temperatures are expected to reach into the mid 60s F.
The Nested NAM temperature chart also shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 40s F overnight.
The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows dewpoints will remain in the 10s F over most of the state, with a stripe of single digits along I-40, and in the northeastern quadrant of the state.
The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows light winds over the Albuquerque Metro area, but stronger winds over the northeastern quadrant of the state later this afternoon and evening.
The HRRR simulated cloud cover chart shows clear skies over the state. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows very few clouds over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, and remain sunny. In the Albuquerque area, there will be some light breezes, but the strongest winds, driest weather and biggest fire threat will be over the northeastern quadrant of the state later this afternoon and evening.
I will go for a bike ride in a bit. I don’t know what else I will do today- the weather will be nice, so I will probably mess around in my shed and my garden. My week is a series of unknowns, so even though nothing is explicitly due today, I need to do some things in anticipation of a busy week.
Yesterday was cooler than we have seen for several days. I drove from Rio Rancho to Mountainair, and it was quite cold overnight.
This morning, Mountainair is cold, with mostly sunny skies, and light, variable winds. My weather station in Rio Rancho shows:
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecaster’s discussion says we are still lingering in a ridge, but the weather will be cool.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 58 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 29 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-15 mph, becoming northeasterly after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 10-15 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 33 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 54 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 10-15 mph, becoming southwesterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 33 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph, becoming calm after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 55 F. The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 28 F. The winds will be from the east at 5 mph, becoming calm by midnight.
The visible satellite imagery shows light clouds over the southeastern quadrant of the state this morning.
The upper-level water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over Baja, with southwesterly flow over the state.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cool temperatures and low humidity. The skies are clear (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under high pressure, with a slight north to south pressure gradient. The RAP shows the gradient will weaken over the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows varied flow over the state today.
The NAM 700 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, thunderstorms and snow showers are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The RRFS simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, snow showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers, thunderstorms and snow showers are unlikely. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows precipitation is highly unlikely. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM winter weather charts show no additional snowfall. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM temperature chart shows the high temperatures are expected to reach into the mid 50s F.
The Nested NAM temperature chart also shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 30s F overnight.
The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows dewpoints will remain in the 10s F, dropping to single digits briefly this afternoon.
The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows light winds.
The HRRR simulated cloud cover chart shows a few, light clouds this afternoon.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows very few clouds over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will be cool, but not as windy as it has been. The NWS talks about being in a ridge, and there is a trough to our west, but the NAM has the closed low moving west away from us.
It’s a confusing pattern, and quite honestly, I am hanging out with my parents and don’t feel like analyzing it more than that. I will drive from Mountainair to Magdalena for a basketball game, and then I will drive back home to Rio Rancho. I don’t think I will spend a lot of time outside today.
High Plains Chasing 
