History.com: This Day In History (March 15-44 B.C.): The Ides of March

By History.com Editors.

Julius Caesar, dictator of Rome, is stabbed to death in the Roman Senate house by 60 conspirators led by Marcus Junius Brutus and Gaius Cassius Longinus on March 15. The day later became infamous as the Ides of March.

Caesar, born into the Julii, an ancient but not particularly distinguished Roman aristocratic family, began his political career in 78 B.C. as a prosecutor for the anti-patrician Popular Party. He won influence in the party for his reformist ideas and oratorical skills, and aided Roman imperial efforts by raising a private army to combat the king of Pontus in 74 B.C. He was an ally of Pompey, the recognized head of the Popular Party, and essentially took over this position after Pompey left Rome in 67 B.C. to become commander of Roman forces in the east.

In 63 B.C., Caesar was elected pontifex maximus, or “high priest,” allegedly by heavy bribes. Two years later, he was made governor of Farther Spain and in 60 B.C. returned to Rome, ambitious for the office of consul. The consulship, essentially the highest office in the Roman Republic, was shared by two politicians on an annual basis. Consuls commanded the army, presided over the Senate and executed its decrees, and represented the state in foreign affairs. Caesar formed a political alliance—the so-called First Triumvirate—with Pompey and Marcus Licinius Crassus, the wealthiest man in Rome, and in 59 B.C. was elected consul. Although generally opposed by the majority of the Roman Senate, Caesar’s land reforms won him popularity with many Romans.

In 58 B.C., Caesar was given four Roman legions in Cisalpine Gaul and Illyricum, and during the next decade demonstrated brilliant military talents as he expanded the Roman Empire and his reputation. Among other achievements, Caesar conquered all of Gaul, made the first Roman inroads into Britain, and won devoted supporters in his legions. However, his successes also aroused Pompey’s jealousy, leading to the collapse of their political alliance in 53 B.C.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Levant’s Agora.

Original source: https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/march-15/the-ides-of-march

Responsible Statecraft: Are we on the precipice of World War III?

By Dan Grazier.

Countless potential black swan events could spark a collapse of our fragile geopolitical order

Shortly after U.S. and Israeli bombs and missiles began falling in Tehran, Iranian missiles flew in all directions at U.S. bases in Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and others. The people living in these countries were justifiably terrified, which was a likely objective of those Iranian leaders who survived the first assaults. Tehran’s strategy may be to persuade America’s regional allies to reconsider their security alliances.

In 2010, most people shook their heads when a now-infamous map of Afghanistan’s various societal, governmental, and tribal interests went public. The counterinsurgency (COIN) spaghetti chart was terribly complex – and intractable. One PowerPoint slide shows how challenging it can be to understand how a stimulant in one corner can produce a response in a seemingly tangential sector. And this is just a single country.

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Imagine a chart depicting the world’s alliances, treaties, trade agreements, cultural bonds, and religious ties today. It would be so complex that no one could fully understand how everything fits together and interacts. Should one player choose to escalate the conflict, there is no telling who else might get involved. In an age of nuclear weapons on hairpin triggers, events can rapidly spin out of control before any of the key players has a chance to truly understand what is really happening. Our civilization could end in minutes, and it will only be a matter of luck if any human beings survive. If any people do survive, it is likely that they will never really know precisely how the end of the world started.

The global situation is eerily similar to 1913. In the years leading up to World War I, European leaders created an intricate system of alliances. France and Russia signed a mutual defense pact. Germany and Austro-Hungary had a similar arrangement. The Russians also had a cultural bond with their fellow Slavs in Serbia.

So, when Franz Ferdinand and his wife were murdered by a Serbian nationalist in June 1914, the resulting diplomatic crisis and war declaration by Austria-Hungary against Serbia pulled Russia into the war. The Russian mobilization prompted the Germans to mobilize. In quick succession, the Germans declared war on Russia, France, and Belgium. When German troops entered Luxembourg and Belgium, Great Britain declared war on Germany, and World War I began for real. The international network established by those early 20th century leaders was so precarious, it only took a relatively minor jostle in a forgotten corner of Europe to bring the entire system crashing to the ground.

The world today is vastly more complex. In 1913, there were approximately 61 sovereign states, but the key players were the major European empires like Great Britain, Russia, France, and Germany. Today, there are 195 countries, each striving for their place on the world stage as they pursue their national interest. It is impossible to calculate the potential number of black swan events capable of jostling the geostrategic network sufficiently to collapse it on top of itself.

Consider this as well: we may already be in the beginning stages of a global war. Victor Davis Hanson wrote about how World War II only looks like World War II in hindsight. For the people living through it, especially in the beginning, World War II looked like a series of rather ordinary border conflicts and territorial conquests. The Japanese invaded Manchuria in 1931 and then further expanded the conflict with China in 1937. Italy invaded Ethiopia in 1935. Germany remilitarized the Rhineland in 1936, annexed Austria in 1938, and occupied the Sudetenland six months later.

Today, Russia is still fighting in Ukraine. Gaza remains an open wound. The United States captured the president of Venezuela in an audacious military raid. Now the Iranian regime has been decapitated, but the remaining officials appear bent on provoking a larger war by lashing out at every country in the region that hosts U.S. military facilities.

This raises the uncomfortable question: are we now on the precipice of the next Pearl Harbor moment?

With the capture of President Maduro in Venezuela, the United States disrupted the flow of oil to China. Now, with the fall of the Islamic Republic of Iran, China appears poised to lose another important source of oil. Does anyone remember what prompted the Japanese to strike the American Pacific Fleet and then declare war against the United States? Those who answered the loss of access to key commodities, notably oil, due to actions by the United States responded correctly.

The same leaders who developed the pre-World War I international system also spent the years before Sarajevo engaged in a decades-long arms race. Most of them had read Alfred Thayer Mahan’s writing about the importance of seapower, so several countries invested huge amounts of capital building dreadnought ships. Hiram Maxim inspired a slew of weapon designers to develop more effective machine guns. The world’s aviators were just beginning to imagine the warfighting potential of the airplane.

No one in 1913 understood quite how the industrial age had changed warfare. The leaders were all still playing by the old international rules that sufficed while armies fought in rank and file on relatively limited and distant battlefields. Had those early 20th century leaders foreseen the trenches and poison gas, they almost certainly would not have celebrated the war’s beginning. Many of the key players also lacked any direct experience with war, which tends to encourage recklessness. The last major European war was the Franco-Prussian War that ended in 1871. Before that, the last truly significant European battle had been Waterloo in 1815.

No leader in any country today has any experience with war on a global scale. World War II ended more than 80 years ago. The relatively few remaining World War II veterans are all centenarians or soon will be. No one can truly know how the next world war will unfold. If, by some miracle, the next war is not fought with nuclear weapons, it is still impossible for anyone to know for certain how a conventional war between superpowers will be fought.

Policymakers around the world must take the time to reflect on the state of the world today. We may be living through the early days of what future historians will call World War III. Of course, that depends on there being any future historians. With every bomb dropped, every missile fired, and every warship torpedoed, events creep ever closer to the single jostle, the 21st century Sarajevo, to topple the fragile network. It will only take one minor miscalculation, one bomb to miss and fall on another country’s embassy, one airliner to be accidentally shot out of the sky, or any other of a million incidents to trigger an escalation leading to a full nuclear exchange.

There may be time left to prevent such a scenario. The administration and the U.S. military deserve credit for planning and executing two spectacular displays of martial prowess in less than two months. But they should also bear in mind that victory is far from guaranteed. Luck, fate, and the enemy have a say in the outcome of any conflict. It is easy to believe that modern military technology has eliminated war’s uncertainty. But war will always remain a human endeavor, serving human ends.

The administration must bring the current operation with Iran to a quick end. It can celebrate its successes but should not push their luck any further. Every military operation is the geostrategic version of Russian roulette.

Dan Grazier is a senior fellow and program director at the Stimson Center. He is a former Marine Corps captain who served tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan. His assignments in uniform included tours with 2nd Tank Battalion in Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, and 1st Tank Battalion in Twentynine Palms, California.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Levant’s Agora.

Original source: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/world-war-3/

RT: Is the Iran war the one America can’t win – and can’t end?

By Sergey Poletaev.

As the conflict drags on, the US faces a dangerous dilemma

The 12th day of the war with Iran is coming to a close, and it’s clear that this conflict will last longer than the brief skirmish of last summer. It’s also evident that one of the three scenarios we outlined in our initial analysis is no longer relevant – the US hasn’t been able to achieve the quick collapse or surrender of Iran.

It seems the White House was counting on a blitzkrieg approach, but now it’s apparent that there was no Plan B in case of failure. The Trump administration underestimated Iran’s resolve; it didn’t believe Iran would retaliate, let alone block the Strait of Hormuz or launch attacks on the Gulf monarchies.

This leaves us with two possible outcomes: A ceasefire in the near future or a protracted war of attrition.

Declare victory and get out 

It appears that the Trump administration is at a loss for what to do next. Conflicting statements emerge almost simultaneously: First, Trump claims that Iran has been decimated (implying the war’s objectives have been met), and then threatens new devastating strikes and vows to eliminate Iran’s leadership until they accept his terms.

In recent days, however, Washington has apparently coordinated its strategy. US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have laid out clear objectives: To dismantle Iran’s navy and eliminate its capability to produce and launch missiles.

European leaders, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, are calling for an end to the conflict as soon as possible, mainly because Europe is severely affected by the halted oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf.

The US wouldn’t even care about Europe’s discontent, if not for the fact that it’s the first time that America has faced such international isolation. Apart from Israel, none of America’s allies or client states support the attack on Iran. Europe is irritated, while the Arabian Peninsula displays fearful hostility. The Gulf countries refuse to allow their airspace to be used for attacks on Iran, even as Iran launches missiles and drones at them. The US has been forced to ask Romania to host aircraft for strikes against Iran – a truly unprecedented measure.

It appears that the US may soon back out of the conflict, acting according to the usual model: Let’s declare victory and get out of here. But is that possible in the current situation? 

A small problem can lead to total disaster

With each passing day of the war, the US is getting more entangled in it. Even if it withdraws from the conflict, things won’t go back to the way they were before the war, and the costs will only escalate as time goes on.

Firstly, before launching attacks on Iran, the US partially or fully evacuated its bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE. This was viewed as a temporary measure, lasting just a few days – a tactic that had already been employed in 2025. However, it’s uncertain whether these bases will be operational again after the conflict: They may be damaged or destroyed, and restoring them would require approval from the local authorities. These countries have come to realize that the US is unable to protect them from Iran; nor is it likely to do so in the future. The presence of US bases on their territory makes these nations targets for Iranian retaliation.

Secondly, the Iranian regime, having weathered the blows, will likely solidify its standing both domestically and internationally. Plus, there’s the nuclear aspect, which we’ll discuss separately later.

Finally, Israel will fiercely resist America’s attempts to pull out of the war. It’s clear that Israel lured Trump into this conflict hoping to settle the Iranian issue once and for all through someone else’s efforts, fully aware that this opportunity may not arise under a different administration. This means Israel is determined to keep the US engaged in the war at any cost, even resorting to bloody provocations if necessary.

In this context, Netanyahu is for Trump what Zelensky was for Biden – the classic case of the tail wagging the dog.

Endless war

The White House may want to pull out of the conflict, but the events seem to push it to continue the war until a total defeat of the Iranian regime. This can’t happen, however, without a ground invasion. As we mentioned earlier, relying on proxy forces (like the Iraqi Kurds or Azerbaijan) to achieve this goal seems nearly impossible. No one is willing to be the first to take the plunge: The Kurds have declared their neutrality, and Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, has backed off after speaking with his Iranian counterpart.

This leaves only a direct ground invasion on the table, but this appears to be a distant prospect given the current state of the US military.

In the meantime, amid mutual airstrikes, the conflict will likely remain focused on the Strait of Hormuz. Its blockade is Iran’s primary strategic advantage and its sole lever of influence over the outside world, including the US and Israel. If the strait is reopened for tankers and cargo ships, Iran will find itself isolated. The hypocritical calls for peace from Europe would quickly fade, and the Gulf monarchies would likely fall back under the wing of the US. While support from Russia and China may continue, it would likely be minimal – just enough to keep Iran afloat a little longer.

A forceful unblocking of the strait would represent a significant symbolic victory for Trump, allowing him to proclaim that he has driven the Persian beast back into its lair – and to a large extent, that would be true. The conflict would then lose its global significance, devolving into another local skirmish that could simmer at varying intensities for years. The Gulf states would learn to live under daily bombardments, and this simmering war would become the new normal for the region.

Furthermore, if the Strait of Hormuz is unblocked, Trump could declare a decisive victory without even formalizing a ceasefire with Iran.

After that, he could offer the Gulf Arab states the chance to purchase missiles and drones from the US to strike Iran, along with missile defense systems for protection against Iranian attacks – and then wash his hands of the whole affair. The sheikhs can deal with it as they wish: Fight the ayatollahs, negotiate, or buy their way out. 

Two options for Iran

Beyond the military task of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Israel, which would clearly oppose this scenario, there’s also the Iranian factor. Iran’s persistent and bold resistance has provided it with two options: To continue fighting, exhausting the forces of the US-Israel coalition, or to negotiate peace in the near future. Each option comes with its own pros and cons.

1. Prolonged war of attrition

Pros: Iran currently enjoys a temporary advantage in military capabilities: The enemy’s missile defense systems are severely weakened, radar systems and communications have been compromised, and there is no effective counter to the swarms of Shahed drones. The Gulf monarchies are caught off guard and on the brink of panic, lacking any real military strength. However, this situation won’t last forever; eventually, all countries in the region will learn to track and shoot down Shahed drones, and the Arabs will adapt and assert themselves. Therefore, it makes sense to strike while the iron is hot. If Israeli air defenses are considerably weakened, there’s a fair chance that regular drone strikes could inflict strategic damage and deter further Israeli engagement for a long time.

Cons: It’s far from certain that Iran can sustain a war of attrition. The dominance of the US and Israel over much of Iranian airspace, combined with the need to maintain high levels of military production (if this is even possible under continuous airstrikes) pose significant challenges. Critically, with oil exports cut off, Tehran loses its primary source of income, which in just a few months could mean either disaster or total dependence on Moscow and Beijing. Unlike Russia, Iran lacks the strategic depth to endure this type of situation.

2. A stalemate similar to the situation last summer

Pros: This strategy offers a chance for a temporary truce and the opportunity to prepare for the next round of conflict. 

Cons: If Iran simply focuses on rebuilding its missile and drone capabilities, the element of surprise will be lost in the next conflict. Firstly, there’s no guarantee that Iran will be able to block the strait effectively; secondly, both Israel and the Gulf monarchies will undoubtedly take measures to counter Iran’s drone threat. This means that in the next confrontation, Iran would be unable to effectively fight back. 

The nuclear option

As discussed earlier, if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the conflict will shift into a localized and primarily aerial war.

For Tehran, the only chance to turn the tables lies in quickly developing nuclear weapons.

There are rumors (though they are hard to verify) that the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was the main obstacle to Iran’s nuclear program. If that’s the case, and if his son and successor holds a different view, it’s quite possible that within the next year or two, Iran could test a nuclear weapon. The exact timeline will depend on the state of its production capabilities, which may have been affected by US and Israeli airstrikes. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps already possess delivery systems in the form of ballistic and hypersonic missiles, against which there is no guaranteed defense. 

Following Iran, it’s likely that Saudi Arabia will also acquire nuclear weapons, prompting the Saudis to start absorbing other Gulf monarchies. They might say: Want protection from the Iranians and their drones? Don’t want your maritime exports cut off again? Join us under our wing.

As the Arabian Peninsula consolidates, the influence of this new nuclear power could extend across the broader Arab world, with nuclear weapons potentially appearing in Türkiye and Egypt. 

This is not an encouraging scenario for Israel, which stirred the pot in the first place.

Sergey Poletaev: information analyst and publicist, co-founder and editor of the Vatfor project.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Levant’s Agora.

Original source: https://www.rt.com/news/634640-cant-win-and-cant-end/

CounterPunch: These 20 Corporations Are Major Culprits in the Affordability Crisis

By Sarah Anderson – Reyanna James.

A recent poll found that nearly half of people in the world’s richest country are having difficulty affording basic necessities like groceries, utility bills, health care, housing, and transportation.

A new Institute for Policy Studies report shines a spotlight on the role leading corporations are playing in this affordability crisis. The report analyzes the 20 largest employers of low-wage U.S. workers, a group we’ve dubbed the “Low-Wage 20.”

Our analysis finds that at half of these firms, median worker pay actually declined in real terms between 2019 and 2024. For the group as a whole, average median pay dropped 4.6 percent to just $29,087.

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Not one single company in the Low-Wage 20 had median pay in 2024 that met the $59,600 income level needed to afford the U.S. average rent for a two-bedroom apartment.

At seven Low-Wage 20 firms, annual pay for a typical worker fell below $25,533, the average price of a used car. Without reliable transportation, workers can’t get to their  jobs – not to mention grocery stores and doctors’ offices.

Poverty wages also make it extremely challenging for low-income families to afford to send their kids to college. At 16 of the Low-Wage 20 firms, the typical worker makes less in an entire year than the $44,961 average annual cost for tuition and fees at a private college. Seven of the companies have median income lower than the $25,415 average cost of out-of-state tuition and fees at public universities.

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These companies’ low-wage business models have left many of their workers with no choice but to rely on public assistance.

Fifteen of the Low-Wage 20 reported median pay in 2024 below the $35,631 income limit for a family of three to be eligible for Medicaid. At 13 of the firms, median pay fell below the $33,576 family threshold for SNAP food aid.

On the opposite end of the income scale, the CEOs of Low-Wage 20 companies earned average compensation of $18.6 million in 2024. Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol landed the biggest payout, with $95.8 million in his first year on the job. Amazon CEO Andrew Jassy received only a modest $1.6 million in 2024. But thanks to previous massive multi-year pay packages, he’s sitting on Amazon stock valued at about $467 million.

To further pump up executive paychecks, Low-Wage 20 corporations have been spending vast sums on stock buybacks. This financial maneuver artificially inflates the value of CEOs’ stock-based pay while siphoning resources from worker wages and other productive investments.

With the $32.5 billion these 20 firms spent on buybacks in 2024 alone, they could’ve lifted more than a million workers making the Low-Wage 20’s average median wage up to the income level needed to afford average rent for a two-bedroom apartment.

Last year Congress passed historic cuts to public assistance programs, making it even more important that all U.S. workers earn wages high enough to cover their basic costs of living.

Policymakers hold many tools for influencing corporate pay practices. They could raise the federal minimum wage, a move that would have ripple effects throughout the hourly wage workforce.

To combat wage suppression, policymakers at the federal and state levels should also pass reforms that expand worker rights to organize, penalize employer violations, and ban employer interference in organizing. They could also deny corporate tax deductions for expenses related to union-busting activities, such as so-called “captive audience meetings” and anti-union advertising campaigns.

Higher tax rates on companies with huge CEO-worker pay gaps would create an incentive to both rein in executive pay and raise worker wages, while generating significant new revenue for public investments. Unions and community groups in two cities – San Francisco and Los Angeles – are mobilizing to put “Overpaid CEO Taxes” on the ballot in 2026.

These local campaigns will boost momentum behind federal bills to impose tax penalties on companies with huge pay gaps, including the Tax Excessive CEO Pay Act and the Curtailing Executive Overcompensation (CEO) Act.

Even in “normal” times, it’s unconscionable for workers at leading U.S. corporations to have to struggle just to get by while their top bosses are raking in mega-million-dollar paychecks. Today, with high costs for basic needs and the gutting of our safety net, policymakers need to crack down on poverty wage business models that benefit only those at the top.

Sarah Anderson directs the Global Economy Project and co-edits Inequality.org at the Institute for Policy Studies. Reyanna James is an Inequality Research and Editorial Associate at the Institute for Policy Studies.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Levant’s Agora.

Original source: https://www.counterpunch.org/2026/03/10/these-20-corporations-are-major-culprits-in-the-affordability-crisis/

ScienceAlert: Confirmed: Humanity Changed an Object’s Orbit Around The Sun For The First Time

By Michelle Starr.

In 2022, NASA made history, deliberately smashing a spacecraft into an asteroid to see if it could alter the object’s orbit around its larger companion asteroid.

We already knew that the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission was wildly successful, reducing the orbital period of the asteroid pair Didymos and Dimorphos by an astonishing 33 minutes.

But new measurements have revealed something even bigger: The impact also changed the entire orbital path of the Didymos-Dimorphos system through space.

This achievement marks the first time humanity has directly altered the orbit of a natural object around the Sun.

“This work adds the capability of deflecting a binary asteroid system in its heliocentric orbit to the list of novel technologies demonstrated by the DART mission,” writes a team led by aerospace engineer Rahil Makadia of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

The DART mission was conducted in the interest of planetary safety. There are a lot of large rocks out there in the Solar System, and while none are known to be likely to hit Earth anytime soon, humanity would like to be prepared for the possibility.

The premise of DART was straightforward. The target was a pair of asteroids gravitationally bound to one another; the larger, named Didymos, measuring about 780 meters across (2,560 feet), and the smaller, called Dimorphos, about 160 meters across (525 feet). Since Dimorphos is the smaller of the two, it would be easier to move.

This system was chosen in part because its orbital period was very well characterized, making any changes easy to measure. For the DART mission to succeed, the impact had to change the course of Dimorphos enough to alter its orbital period around its partner asteroid.

The science team expected a change of around 7 minutes, so the 33-minute change that actually occurred was tremendously exciting.

However, the asteroid system is only part of a larger whole – the entire Solar System. Makadia and his team wanted to know whether the DART mission managed to alter, not just the orbital period of Dimorphos around Didymos, but the macroscopic path of the two objects around the Sun.

Because Dimorphos and Didymos are gravitationally bound, they orbit a shared center of mass known as a barycenter. When DART struck Dimorphos, the impact didn’t just give the smaller asteroid a push; it also sprayed debris into space.

That escaping material carried momentum away from the system, which scientists predicted would impart a tiny recoil that could slightly alter the motion of the Didymos-Dimorphos pair around the Sun.

In the years since the September 2022 collision, instruments have been carefully monitoring the asteroid system. Makadia’s team analyzed data from 22 stellar occultations, 5,955 ground-based measurements of the system’s position, three navigation measurements from the DART spacecraft itself, and nine ground-based distance measurements.

Together, these data revealed that the impact did indeed give the Didymos-Dimorphos system a tiny push, slowing its orbital velocity by about 11.7 micrometers per second – about 42 millimeters per hour (roughly the width of an Apple Watch).

In space, however, even the smallest push can eventually add up to a very large change in position. Over a decade, a change of 11.7 micrometers per second would accumulate to about 3.69 kilometers.

This means that over the timescales relevant to planetary defense – years or decades of advance warning, if we’re lucky – even a tiny nudge could be enough to shift a hazardous asteroid safely away from Earth.

Future missions will provide an even clearer picture of what happened during the impact. The European Space Agency’s Hera spacecraft, scheduled to arrive at the Didymos system later this decade, will study the impact crater left by DART and measure the asteroids’ masses and structure in detail.

But what has been accomplished so far is nothing short of extraordinary. For the first time, humanity has altered the path of a natural object moving through the Solar System.

“By demonstrating that asteroid deflection missions such as DART can effect change in the heliocentric orbit of a celestial body,” the researchers write, “this study marks a notable step forward in our ability to prevent future asteroid impacts on Earth.”

The research has been published in Science Advances.

Featured Photo credit and description: Debris flying immediately after DART collided with Dimorphos. (NASA DART team and LICIACube)

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Levant’s Agora.

Source: https://www.sciencealert.com/confirmed-humanity-changed-an-objects-orbit-around-the-sun-for-the-first-time

History.com: This Day In History (March 14-1953): Nikita Khrushchev begins his rise to power

By History.com Editors.

The Soviet government announces that Nikita Khrushchev has been selected as one of five men named to the new office of Secretariat of the Communist Party. Khrushchev’s selection was a crucial first step in his rise to power in the Soviet Union—an advance that culminated in Khrushchev being named secretary of the Communist Party in September 1953, and premier in 1958.

The death of Joseph Stalin on March 5, 1953 created a tremendous vacuum in Soviet leadership. Stalin had ruled the Soviet Union since the 1920s. With his passing, the heir apparent was Georgi Malenkov, who was named premier and first secretary of the Communist Party the day after Stalin’s death. This seemingly smooth transition, however, masked a growing power struggle between Malenkov and Nikita Khruschev. Khrushchev had been active in the Russian Communist Party since joining in 1918. After Stalin took control of the Soviet Union following Lenin’s death in 1924, Khrushchev became an absolutely loyal follower of the brutal dictator. This loyalty served him well, as he was one of the few old Bolsheviks who survived Stalin’s devastating political purges during the 1930s.

In the 1940s Khrushchev held a number of important positions in the Soviet government. Yet, when Stalin died in March 1953, Khrushchev was overlooked in favor of Malenkov. It did not take long for Khrushchev to take advantage of the mediocre Malenkov. First, he organized a coalition of Soviet politicians to force Malenkov to relinquish the post of first secretary—the more important post, since it controlled the party apparatus in the Soviet Union. Malenkov publicly stated that he was giving up the position to encourage the sharing of political responsibilities, but it was obvious that Khrushchev had gained a crucial victory. To replace Malenkov, the party announced the establishment of a new position, a five-man Secretariat. Even Western journalists noted that in announcing the five-person position, Khrushchev’s name was always listed first, while the others were in alphabetical order. It was soon apparent that Khrushchev was the driving power in the Secretariat, and in September 1953, he secured enough backing to be named secretary of the Communist Party. In February 1955, he and his supporters pushed Malenkov out of the premiership and replaced him with a Khrushchev puppet, Nikolai Bulganin. In March 1958, Khrushchev consolidated his power by taking the office of premier himself.

Officials in the United States, including Secretary of State John Foster Dulles, badly underestimated Khrushchev. Initially, they considered him a lackey of Malenkov, but soon came to learn that the blunt and unsophisticated Khrushchev was a force to be reckoned with in Soviet politics. Despite their concern, Khrushchev’s rise to power did initiate a period in which tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union began slightly to ease, as he called for “peaceful coexistence” between the two superpowers.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Levant’s Agora.

Original source: https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/march-14/khrushchev-begins-his-rise-to-power

Arab News: No regime change, no exit: The Iran war’s reckoning begins

By Osama Al-Sharif.

Almost two weeks after the US and Israel launched what they described as a preemptive strike against Iran — with the stated objective of regime change — the odds that this goal will be achieved anytime soon appear as remote as they did on Day 1. Yet as both sides dig in, trading blows in an increasingly senseless war of attrition, there are signs that President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are quietly backing away from that stated objective.

On Monday, Trump said America’s goals may be “pretty well complete” and that the war could end soon. His remarks came as global stock markets tumbled and oil and gas prices soared, with Iran having effectively closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz — disrupting about 20 percent of global oil exports. Tehran has also struck energy facilities across most Gulf states, forcing Qatar to suspend gas production and prompting others to curtail output.

But later that same day, Trump told reporters that the US would continue striking Iran to destroy its ballistic missile capabilities. He also expressed dissatisfaction with the newly designated supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, implying he wanted a say in who leads Iran next. Earlier, Trump had indicated that any decision to end the war would be made mutually by himself and Netanyahu.

Iran’s response was swift and unequivocal. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared that only Iran would determine when the war ends. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said diplomacy was no longer an option. IRGC forces continued firing missiles and drones at Israel and neighboring Gulf states.

By Tuesday, Trump’s advisers were reportedly urging him to devise an exit strategy — to end a war that remains deeply unpopular with the American public and is increasingly threatening Republican prospects in the November midterm elections. Some analysts believe Trump may declare victory, claiming the US has crippled Iran’s military and eliminated key figures in its leadership. But it is far from clear how Tehran would respond to such a gambit, particularly as Iran appears intent on raising the stakes and setting its own conditions for ending hostilities.

In hindsight, Trump appears to have miscalculated both Iran’s resolve and its capacity to absorb the initial shock, which was, by any measure, devastating. The attacks on Gulf neighbors have strained ties with US allies that never wanted this war. And it is now evident that Trump and Netanyahu entered it with fundamentally different objectives.

For Trump, the goal was to decapitate the regime, pave the way for a moderate successor and secure American interests in the oil-rich country. Netanyahu, having failed to achieve regime change, has appeared to shift toward destroying Iran’s infrastructure in the hope of fomenting internal chaos and division. Both leaders believed their aims would be achieved quickly and decisively. Both were wrong.

Iran’s resilience — despite heavy damage to its military and civilian infrastructure — has visibly stunned Washington and Tel Aviv. By internationalizing the conflict, Iran’s hard-liners have deftly transferred pressure onto Arab and European capitals, as well as into the political and military decision-making centers of both Israel and the US.

Israel now finds itself fighting on two fronts: in southern Lebanon against a resurgent Hezbollah and against an Iranian leadership that, more than 10 days after its missile capabilities were supposedly neutralized, continues to strike the heart of Tel Aviv and Haifa. By Tuesday, Netanyahu appeared to be stepping back from his core war aim, suggesting that the end of Iran’s clerical regime depends on the Iranian people’s willingness to “throw off the yoke of tyranny.”

Trump should also be cautious about his continued alignment with Netanyahu. Reports indicate that Israel is striking civilian infrastructure — schools, hospitals, oil depots and police stations — in addition to military targets. When Israel hit Tehran’s main oil facilities on Sunday, igniting widespread fires, Washington expressed dismay. That gap between the two allies is worth watching.

Even after nearly two weeks of this war of choice, Trump continues to reach for justifications. On Monday, he asserted, without evidence, that Iran had been planning to strike first and that the US attack had preempted an Iranian scheme “to take over the entire Middle East.” Such claims will sit uneasily with Gulf partners who have borne a heavy share of the costs — and who were not consulted before the war began.

While Iranian officials insist the fighting will continue unabated, there are indications that Russia and Turkiye may be exploring a mediation role. But the shape of any postwar order remains deeply uncertain. The fallout has already been enormous and the geopolitical reverberations will outlast the conflict itself.

From Tehran’s perspective, any acceptable end to the war will require a new set of negotiating parameters: credible guarantees against future US and Israeli aggression, the lifting of sanctions and a nuclear agreement on favorable terms. Iran’s ballistic missile program, a persistent flash point, will remain a nonnegotiable red line.

Trump is already casting the war as an American victory, laying the rhetorical groundwork for a unilateral declaration that hostilities are over. How Netanyahu would respond to such a move is unclear. What does seem certain is that Israel will not honor a ceasefire in Lebanon — and will press further into the south in its bid to destroy Iran’s most valuable regional ally.

For the Gulf states, the reckoning will be longer and more complex. They will need to reassess the foundations of their military partnership with the US, recalibrate their relationships with Israel and Iran, and confront the long-term security implications of a conflict that has left the Arabian Gulf more volatile than before.

Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. X: @plato010

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Levant’s Agora.

Original source: https://www.arabnews.com/node/2635933

Euronews: As Iran war reaches Europe’s borders, can the continent really rest easy?

By Denis Loctier.

As the Iran war escalates, European cities are now within range of Tehran’s arsenal. We asked NATO how it would defend against a strike, and an expert on political violence what other methods Iran could use to target Europeans.

Since US and Israeli forces unleashed their strikes against Iranian targets — killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and decimating Iran’s military and security forces — Tehran has launched a campaign of missile and drone bombardment against the region at an unprecedented scale.

Iranian projectiles have hit Israeli and Gulf targets, and an Iran-made drone targeted a British base in Cyprus — prompting Prime Minister Keir Starmer to open UK bases for US defensive counter-strikes on Iranian missile sites.

Furthermore, NATO air defence systems intercepted two Iranian ballistic missiles heading toward — or already entering — Turkish airspace, a threshold Tehran has not crossed before.

Europe, closer than ever to the blast radius of this war, faces the obvious question: could Iran strike continental Europe next? And if it tried, could NATO stop it?

What Iran could actually fire at Europe

Iran’s long-range weapons fall into three categories — and their potential reach covers an alarming portion of the European map.

The most destructive is the Khorramshahr ballistic missile, capable of carrying a warhead of up to 1,800 kg.

Launched from hardened underground facilities in northwestern Iran — in mountainous regions like Kermanshah, Tabriz, and Isfahan — it has a range of up to 3,000 km when its payload is reduced.

At that distance, southern and eastern European capitals like Athens, Sofia and Bucharest are within reach. At maximum extension, so are Vienna, Rome and Berlin.

Then there are the drones. The Shahed-136 — battle-tested and refined through years of use in Russia’s all-out war in Ukraine — has a range of up to 2,500 km.

Its single warhead which weighs between 30 and 50 kg is modest, but the Shaheds come in swarms, designed not to demolish a building but to overwhelm air defences and knock out power grids across entire regions. Ukraine has experienced what that looks like. Parts of Europe could too.

The third element is the cruise missile — principally the Soumar and its variants, with ranges of 2,000–3,000 km.

Unlike ballistic missiles, cruise missiles fly low and hug terrain, making them significantly harder to detect on traditional radar. Their precision makes them ideal for targeted infrastructure strikes rather than broad destruction.

Together, these three weapons give Iran a layered long-range strike capability that increasingly overlaps with European territory.

Israel offers the most battle-tested reference point for what missile defence looks like under real conditions.

During the ongoing war, Iran launched between 500 and 550 ballistic missiles at Israeli territory — and Israel’s multi-layered system, combining the Arrow 2, Arrow 3, and David’s Sling interceptors, kept all but 31 from landing in populated areas.

But some gaps remain. Iran has engineered its missiles specifically to defeat interception: the Khorramshahr-4 reportedly re-enters the atmosphere at around Mach 8, leaving defensive systems with virtually no reaction time.

Additionally, its most advanced warheads can alter their trajectory mid-descent to disrupt radar tracking, and Iran rarely fires ballistic missiles alone — it combines them with cruise missiles and drone swarms with the explicit goal of overwhelming air defences.

If Iran decides to strike Europe, analysts expect a multi-modal approach: likely precision strikes on NATO logistics hubs and economic disruption through attacks on Mediterranean port infrastructure or LNG terminals in Italy, Greece and Romania.

Then there is also psychological pressure through attacks and diversions designed to cause fear among civilians.

NATO’s answer: ‘Europeans should rest easy at night’

NATO’s public position is one of firm reassurance, and, according to the alliance’s spokesperson, it is backed by recently demonstrated capability.

In an interview with Euronews, Colonel Martin L. O’Donnell, spokesperson for Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) did not dismiss or confirm a potential scenario of an Iranian strike on Europe outright, but he made NATO’s confidence plain.

“NATO does have what it takes to defend Alliance territory, to defend our one billion inhabitants. And so I think Europeans — I of course live in Europe myself — should rest easy at night knowing that NATO has the ability to defeat any such threat that gets posed to the alliance,” Colonel O’Donnell said.

O’Donnell pointed to recent missile intercepts in Turkish airspace as live proof that the system works in practice, not just in theory. The entire kill chain — from detecting a launch to destroying the target — takes under 10 minutes.

The process, he explained, begins in space. “First there’s detecting the launch of a missile. We use a variety of assets, some of which are space-based, to do just that,” said O’Donnell.

“Then of course, once you detect the launch, you’ve got to track the launch and its flight. And NATO then has a variety of land and also sea-based assets by which to do that in addition to those space-based assets that I previously described,” he said.

“Then you need the ability to intercept and then subsequently destroy that target, again, which NATO proved that we have the capability to do.”

But what about the European countries that sit outside NATO’s formal umbrella? Cyprus, Ireland, Austria, Switzerland, Malta — none are NATO members, and the alliance’s ballistic missile defence (BMD) architecture is explicitly designed to protect “all NATO European populations, territory and forces.” In strict institutional terms, that leaves non-member states uncovered.

In practice, the picture is more complicated. EU membership provides a parallel layer of obligations: under Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union, any attack on an EU member state legally compels all other EU member states to provide assistance.

And the European Sky Shield initiative — a German-led procurement and integration programme that neutral states including Austria and Switzerland have joined — is steadily weaving non-NATO nations into the continent’s shared air defence network.

Recent events suggest that legal frameworks may matter less than political will. When recent Iranian strikes hit Cyprus, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain rapidly deployed frigates and F-16s to defend the Mediterranean island’s airspace — outside any formal NATO command structure.

Ireland, itself a non-NATO nation, signalled it was willing to join that coalition if asked.

The drone problem: Cheaper, slower — and harder to stop

Ballistic missiles are fast and powerful, but NATO’s experience with them is long and its defences are robust. Drone swarms are a different challenge — and a much more recent one.

O’Donnell acknowledged drones present a genuine difficulty, but pointed to a new NATO counter-drone system being deployed in Poland and Romania: the Merops. It uses small and cheap interceptor drones that ram or explode near incoming Shahed-type targets.

“It’s also an area that we’re looking to do more in,” O’Donnell said. “We’ve recently announced fielding some capabilities in Poland and Romania, the Merops, which made recent headlines with Ukraine now offering similar capabilities to the Middle East, and this is something that we have to continue to adapt and respond to, and NATO absolutely will.”

In Ukraine, similar systems are reportedly downing up to 40% of incoming Shahed-type drones, with intercept rates reaching up to 80% through domestically developed tools and other means — yet the remaining 20% still get through and hit their targets.

So, even with Merops deployed in eastern Europe, can Europeans truly rest easy at night?

Beyond missiles and drones: Iran’s terror tactics

Moreover, any Iranian attacks against Europe would almost certainly not stop at military strikes. Experts say Tehran’s playbook is wider and, in some ways, harder to defend against.

“I think that is a legitimate concern to be worried about if you’re living in Europe or if you’re a European state,” says Graig R Klein, assistant professor at the Institute of Security and Global Affairs at Leiden University.

“Iran has a history of working with criminal organisations, working with potential Iranian state agents or at least with different Iranian assets within the European context, to try to perpetrate terrorist attacks or violence. We’ve seen this before.”

Since 2021, European intelligence services have tracked a sharp increase in Iranian-linked plots on European soil — mostly targeting Iranian dissidents, Persian-speaking journalists, Jewish communities, and Israeli citizens.

These attacks are frequently outsourced to local criminal networks, making attribution and prosecution complex. It was this pattern of behaviour that led the EU to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation on 29 January 2026.

Klein believes Iran is likely to stick to its established playbook — targeting dissidents, journalists, and Jewish communities — especially given that the new ayatollah Mojtaba Khomenei is the late supreme leader’s son and a product of the same regime. But if Iran’s leadership feels its survival is more directly threatened, he says it could choose to escalate on European soil.

“If Europe gets pulled more into this, it does increase the risk for the general European public,” says Klein.

“It is possible that there are Iranian state agents already placed, essentially waiting to be activated. If this conflict continues for a long time — and particularly if it looks as though it’s moving into a more formal regime transition or political instability — these agents may be activated by the state.”

One further escalation scenario could realise if Iran restores its nuclear weapons programme, threatening not only Israel and the broader Middle East, but any European military base or force that Tehran perceives as part of the current conflict.

Saeid Golkar, an Iranian-American political scientist, spelt out the risk of Iran becoming nuclear-capable in an opinion piece for Euronews.

“If Washington and Israel focus only on degrading nuclear and military capabilities and then stop, the most likely political outcome is not a democratic transition. It is a consolidation by the surviving security elite,” Golkar wrote.

“Partial removal is dangerous. A sudden pause can invite rapid reprisals, and it can also strengthen the argument inside the regime that only nuclear weapons deter foreign attack.”

“That is the classic ‘what does not kill the regime makes it stronger’ dynamic, but with a nuclear dimension,” according to Golkar.

A step below a full nuclear weapon is the dirty bomb — a conventional explosive laced with radioactive material.

Experts largely agree that Iran has the technical capability to build one, and that it almost certainly would not. A dirty bomb is easily traced, and using one — or supplying it to a proxy — would invite the kind of retaliation that could threaten the regime’s survival.

At this stage, Klein does not expect the Iranian regime to turn to large-scale targeting of the civilian population in Europe.

“If Iran activates these cells, it’s likely government institutions and politicians that face the greatest threat,” said Klein.

“You know, Iran’s assets are limited, its capabilities are being degraded on a daily basis. I don’t think it’s looking to draw more European countries into a large-scale direct confrontation,” he added.

“From my point of view, it would still be trying to punish European governments for any kind of contribution to the war efforts — trying to sow discord and tension within European societies.”

“It’s really using a playbook similar to Russia’s: sowing domestic discord, destabilising domestic politics, and essentially weakening European countries’ ability to engage in this type of confrontation,” he concluded.

Among the other tools Tehran is expected to deploy is cyber warfare — targeting industrial control systems in water, energy, and healthcare — as well as maritime sabotage operations in European waters.

When asked whether NATO expects these hybrid threats specifically from Iran, Colonel O’Donnell was careful but direct.”

“Of course, NATO’s two identified threats contained within its strategic concept and endorsed by all 32 allies are Russia and terrorist groups,” he said.

“But of course, you’ve heard the NATO Secretary-General (Mark Rutte) time and time again talk about how countries like China, like North Korea, like Iran are working with Russia — we see them providing support to the war in Ukraine.”

“So, you know, we’ve got to consider all that within the world that we find ourselves living in, and then develop adequate defences to deal with that,” he concluded.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Levant’s Agora.

Original source: https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/03/11/as-iran-war-reaches-europes-borders-can-the-continent-really-rest-easy

History.com: This Day In History (March 13-1942): U.S. Army launches K-9 Corps

By History.com Editors.

On March 13, 1942, the Quartermaster Corps (QMC) of the United States Army begins training dogs for the newly established War Dog Program, or “K-9 Corps.

Well over a million dogs served on both sides during World War I, carrying messages along the complex network of trenches and providing some measure of psychological comfort to the soldiers. The most famous dog to emerge from the war was Rin Tin Tin, an abandoned puppy of German war dogs found in France in 1918 and taken to the United States, where he made his film debut in the 1922 silent film The Man from Hell’s River. As the first bona fide animal movie star, Rin Tin Tin made the little-known German Shepherd breed famous across the country.

In the United States, the practice of training dogs for military purposes was largely abandoned after World War I. When the country entered World War II in December 1941, the American Kennel Association and a group called Dogs for Defense began a movement to mobilize dog owners to donate healthy and capable animals to the Quartermaster Corps of the U.S. Army. Training began in March 1942, and that fall the QMC was given the task of training dogs for the U.S. Navy, Marines and Coast Guard as well.

The K-9 Corps initially accepted over 30 breeds of dogs, but the list was soon narrowed to seven: German Shepherds, Belgian sheep dogs, Doberman Pinschers, collies, Siberian Huskies, Malumutes and Eskimo dogs. Members of the K-9 Corps were trained for a total of 8 to 12 weeks. After basic obedience training, they were sent through one of four specialized programs to prepare them for work as sentry dogs, scout or patrol dogs, messenger dogs or mine-detection dogs. In active combat duty, scout dogs proved especially essential by alerting patrols to the approach of the enemy and preventing surprise attacks.

The top canine hero of World War II was Chips, a German Shepherd who served with the Army’s 3rd Infantry Division. Trained as a sentry dog, Chips broke away from his handlers and attacked an enemy machine gun nest in Italy, forcing the entire crew to surrender. The wounded Chips was awarded the Distinguished Service Cross, Silver Star and the Purple Heart—all of which were later revoked due to an Army policy preventing official commendation of animals.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Levant’s Agora.

Original source: https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/march-13/u-s-army-launches-k-9-corps

History Today: The Battle for Oil in the First World War

By Jonathan Conlin.

At the beginning of the 20th century, the Great Powers competed for the vast oil reserves around the Iraqi city of Mosul. The motivation – and prize – was energy security.

The moment came at three o’clock on the morning of 14 October 1927, at an exploratory oil well 100 miles south-east of Mosul, at a place called Baba Gurgur. As the drill head passed 1,520 feet, it encountered an oil horizon under considerable pressure. Crude oil rushed up the bore hole, flooding the surrounding wadi and forming an invisible cloud of gas that asphyxiated five members of the drilling team. The gusher ran out of control for over a week at a constant flow of 90,000 barrels of ‘sweet’ (low-sulphur) crude a day. For the Turkish Petroleum Company (TPC), established in 1912, it was the culmination of 15 years of intrigue, diplomacy and exploration. For Iraq, declared a British mandate seven years before, new-found oil promised new-found sovereignty. The royalties from oil would, it was believed, transform what had been a distant vilayet (province) of the Ottoman Empire into an independent state, with its own infrastructure as well as an emerging national identity.

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An Iraq Petroleum Company oil well on fire, 1932. Library of Congress. Public Domain.

In 1927 ‘Middle East’ and ‘oil’ were far from synonymous. World markets were dominated by US exports, notably those of the Standard Oil Company of New Jersey (now ExxonMobil). Baba Gurgur was separated from both the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean by hundreds of miles of forbidding terrain, some of it uncharted. Millions of pounds would have to be sunk into more wells, pipelines, terminals and refineries before a single drop would come to market. A British firm, the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (which became British Petroleum, or BP) had struck oil in neighbouring Iran in 1908, but it had taken years to bring kerosene to market.

Events elsewhere highlighted the risks associated with the oil industry, both geological and political. The rich wells of Mexico’s ‘Golden Lane’, around Tampico and Tuxpam on the country’s east coast, had turned to brine, while the long history of commercial oil production in the Caucasus had been suddenly cut short in 1920, when the Red Army seized the area, after which the new Soviet government nationalised the oilfields around Baku and Grozny.

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An oil gusher at Kirkuk, Iraq, c.1932-33. Library of Congress. Public Domain.

At first, the stakes had been small. For centuries mankind had exploited and sometimes revered naturally occurring ‘eternal flames’ caused by seepages of oil and gas. Baba Gurgur derived its name (which translates as ‘Daddy Fire’) from one such natural curiosity. Pitch was used medicinally, as well as to caulk boats. Only in the second half of the 19th century, however, did commercial drilling begin, along with the refining of crude oil into kerosene, to be used for lighting. By 1910 it was clear that another oil product – gasoline – had overtaken steam and electricity to become the driving force behind the motor car. Two years later the Royal Navy decided to convert its fleet from coal- to oil-fired engines.

The need for secure supplies of oil became urgent during the Great War. Though the term did not yet exist, ‘energy security’ had been born. Control of oil-bearing lands, of pipelines, refineries and the oil companies that built them was essential to national and imperial defence. By the middle of the 20th century, oil and its derivatives had become much more than just an industry. Oil was a way of life: one of ease, convenience and mobility, to which the world’s expanding population continues to aspire, even as the associated environmental costs have become impossible to ignore.

The race to claim Mosul’s resources pitted sheikhs, sultans, shareholders and statesmen against one another. They staked their claims in different ways: as conquerors, as holders of certain hereditary or legal titles, as investors, as opportunists, as trustees for an absent ‘people’ or ‘national interest’. I will focus, for simplicity’s sake, on four specific episodes in which some of these would-be claimants faced each other to contest who should – and who should not – control Mosul’s oil. This struggle took many forms: from the local tribe seeking to make its claims in terms that distant powerbrokers in Istanbul, Berlin and London would recognise, to an aristocrat trying to maintain the niceties of high diplomacy in the face of new powers and new men.

Mosul: The Sheikh and the Sultan 

Sheikh Tabour bin Sheikh Hussein El Ayoub and Agop Ohanian visited the office of a notary named Ekrem El Farouki bin Hassan in Sheikh Omar Street, Mosul on 19 October 1919. The former was head of the local Jabbour tribe, the latter a merchant. Both were subjects of the Ottoman Empire, though they belonged to different millets (ethnic communities): the sheikh was an Arab, the merchant Armenian. They had joined forces to seek compensation for lost revenue from Sheikh Tabour’s oil wells and had come to put the facts on record in a sworn statement. Sixty years before, the sheikh’s father had been granted permission by the sultan to cultivate what was then waste land around Baba Gurgur. He found natural sources of bitumen, which he began to mine, selling it in Mosul. Then Petrus, an Armenian friend, advised him to dig deeper wells in the hope of finding oil. Petrus offered to seek advice the next time he visited distant Istanbul, the capital of the Ottoman Empire.

Unfortunately for the sheikh, Petrus contacted a fellow Ottoman Armenian, Agop Pasha, who served as Minister of the Civil List, administering those estates and investments which the sultan claimed as his personal property. The Civil List was thus distinct from the Imperial Treasury. Starting in the 1880s Agop had been appropriating the most promising oil lands around Mosul for Sultan Abdülhamid. Like many others, the sheikh fell victim to classic rent-seeking behaviour by the sultan: agents were sent out from Constantinople who informed him that the lands were now sanniya (crown lands).

The concession to ‘mine’ petroleum in this area of 12 square miles was subsequently sold to a contractor. Sheikh Tabour received only a token share of the royalty that the contractor paid the sultan. Today, oil is measured in barrels and travels in pipelines and tankers. The only ‘pipeline’ in the Ottoman vilayet of Mosul in 1919 was the river Tigris. Animal skin bottles did the work of barrels. The sheikh’s royalty thus consisted of a mere 25 piastres on every raft of 500 skins floated down the Tigris towards Baghdad.

In 1914 the Ottoman Empire allied with Germany. The German Brennstoffkommando Arabien, or militarised oil survey, duly visited Mosul looking for oil. They ‘brought with them machines and other implements for digging up wells and extracting oil and benzine for supplying their aeroplanes and motor cars with their requirements, in Mosul, Syria and Palestine, for the purpose of protecting their war lines’. They paid Sheikh Tabour even less by way of royalty. By the time redress came from Berlin, it was too late: the British had occupied Mosul. They had arrived three days after the armistice signed between the British and the Turks had come into force. The British clearly wanted to establish ‘facts on the ground’ before peace negotiations began. The local Commander in Charge and Political Officer for Mosul, Colonel Leachman, listened politely to Sheikh Tabour’s complaints: ‘But till now nothing has actually been done.’ Nothing ever would.

Copies of these depositions found their way to the National Archives outside Washington. The documents offer a window onto the earliest phase of commercial development of Mosul oil, yet appear out of place filed amid correspondence among powerful oil executives and diplomats. Historians pass over them, as matters of no importance. To cite Sheikh Tabour’s last deposition (1922), his family’s complaints ‘remained fruitless as they were tribesmen and of weak position’. Yet they reveal much: about endemic corruption under Abdülhamid, about the western powers’ ignorant disdain of unfamiliar forms of property rights and about the fascinating, multi-ethnic nature of the Ottoman Empire. Armenians served as the commercial intermediaries to sultan and sheikh alike. As with the Jews of medieval Europe, such dominance bred resentment and suspicion, fuelling the Armenian Genocide of 1915.

Istanbul: The Grand Vizier and the Ambassadors

The British and German ambassadors visited Abdülhamid’s Grand Vizier, Said Halim Pasha, at the Sublime Porte in Istanbul on 23 March 1914. Sir Louis Mallet and Hans Freiherr von Wangenheim requested that the oil concession for the two vilayets of Mosul and Baghdad be granted to TPC. Thanks to an agreement hammered out in London just four days before, 25 per cent of TPC was now owned by Deutsche Bank. Another 25 per cent belonged to the Anglo-Dutch oil company Royal Dutch-Shell. The remaining half belonged to Anglo-Persian. By persuading the three rivals to join forces, TPC’s founder Calouste Gulbenkian broke the logjam that had prevented any single company or nation from securing the concession.

One might wonder why Sultan Abdülhamid did not exploit Mosul’s oil by himself, as he had been snaffling up the regions’ most promising oil fields for decades. Unfortunately, while there was sufficient money in the Imperial Treasury to hire geologists to carry out surveys, there was nowhere near enough to acquire drilling equipment and to lay pipelines. Years of armed conflict to defend its Balkan and North African territories from western powers and the irredentist movements they supported had left the Ottoman Empire hugely indebted.

As this debt was in European (largely French) hands, Ottoman ministers found their room for policy-making curtailed. Increases in customs duties, intended to bolster revenue, could only be made, for example, with the approval of the Ottoman Public Debt Administration, which represented western European bondholders’ interests. Loans to the Ottoman Empire came with strings attached: funds borrowed from a French-controlled bank, for example, could only be spent on buying artillery pieces from Schneider, a French armaments firm.

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Sultan Abdülhamid II, c.1890. Library of Congress. Public Domain.

German loans, by contrast, came with different shopping lists. Artillery pieces were to be purchased from Germany’s industrial giant Krupp and railway construction contracts were to go to companies controlled by Deutsche Bank. Given the crumbling state of the Ottoman Empire, few in Paris, London or Berlin thought it would last long, but there was good money to be made before the music stopped. Banks issued huge amounts of debt, arms companies sold guns and shipyards sold dreadnoughts. Nobody thought very hard about what would happen when the Ottoman Empire defaulted again (as it had done in 1875), or when the arms race they were directly fostering (between the Greeks and the Ottomans, for example) escalated into war. Perhaps this French, British and German fiscal, industrial and military complex simply looked to their governments to bail them out, by seizing assets or territory.

In 1914 the Empire was already divided up into British, Russian and French ‘spheres of interest’, while the Italians had taken Tripoli in a brief war (1911-2) and were trying to claim their own ‘sphere’ in south-west Anatolia. The Ottoman Empire in 1914 was a vast superstructure of often overlapping claims by foreign powers: a Jenga tower, whose pieces were continuously being rearranged (and new ones added). While Britain, France, Germany, Russia and even Italy had already worked out which pieces they would grab when the time came, none wanted to be held responsible for upsetting the tower.

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A river of crude oil as a result of an uncontrolled gusher, 1932. Library of Congress. Public Domain.

In the years between 1900 and the outbreak of the First World War, legions of rival British, German and US concession-hunters had flocked to Istanbul, jostling in the Pera Palace Hotel. Each sought an exclusive concession to exploit the oilfields of the vilayets of Mosul and Baghdad, but succeeded only in lining the pockets of Abdülhamid’s venal entourage. The Grand Vizier and other ministers held back from awarding the concession to any one bank or company, for fear of reprisals from the others – or rather, from whichever power considered that ‘their’ firms’ claims had been overlooked.

The Grand Vizier would have been used to seeing the German and British ambassadors separately regarding Mosul’s oil; reassuring the former whenever it seemed that the concession might go to Anglo-Persian and the latter when it seemed that Deutsche Bank might be winning the race. He was clearly not expecting an Anglo-German entente in March 1914. As Mallet reported to the Foreign Secretary, Edward Grey, Said Halim ‘started’ and ‘needed smoothing down’ when he heard that TPC not only had its eyes on Mosul, but planned to also exploit the Nejd (the Arabian peninsula).

‘The Turks want to make what they can out of their oil’, Mallet continued, ‘which is a natural aspiration in view of their impoverished condition.’ Like the Grand Vizier, Mallet was surprised that Grey had formally supported an Anglo-German joint-venture – TPC – in order to exploit the Empire’s oil. ‘I suppose the reason for letting the Germans have a share in the Nejd oil fields, which surprised me at first, is that we shall be in a better position to fight the [US] Standard Oil by uniting with the Germans – but this is only surmise.’ For his part, Said Halim recognised that he had no choice, at least not if he wanted to get the Great Powers to agree to allow him to increase Ottoman customs duties to 10 per cent. The concession to exploit the two vilayets was promised to TPC in a Lettre Vizierielle issued on 30 June 1914, just three months before the outbreak of the First World War.

London: The Welsh Wizard, the Premier and the Grocer

On Sunday 1 December 1918, Prime Minister Lloyd George met his French counterpart, Georges Clemenceau, at the French Embassy in London. Germany and the Ottoman Empire were defeated and the Jenga tower had collapsed, leaving the victors to reconfigure Anatolia and the Middle East. Under an agreement reached in 1916 between the British diplomat Mark Sykes and his French counterpart François Georges-Picot, France was to secure a postwar protectorate over a triangular Syrian territory extending east to Iran, including Mosul. At their unminuted meeting the ‘Welsh Wizard’ somehow persuaded Clemenceau to abandon French claims to Mosul, allowing it to be incorporated into the British sphere of Mesopotamia.

Thanks to Admiral ‘Jacky’ Fisher, Britain had begun to recognise the importance of securing oil supplies before the Great War broke out. His thinking lay behind the decision by the British government to part-nationalise Anglo-Persian in 1914, acquiring a 51 per cent stake in it. This remarkable decision to go against decades of Gladstonian laissezfaire had been lubricated by discreet lobbying by another (retired) admiral, whom Anglo-Persian had wisely decided to put on their payroll. Backroom influence-peddling was not the sole preserve of ‘oriental’ regimes, after all. In late 1918, similar lobbying of Maurice Hankey, the secretary of the War Cabinet, by unidentified ‘people with knowledge of oil production’ had led to Mosul becoming a British war aim. Hence the armistice-defying race north to Mosul in November 1918.

France had been slower to recognise the importance of energy security. At the start of the war the French army had just 316 trucks, cars, tractors and planes. In 1918 they had 97,279. France had no oil of its own, apart from a trickle from Pechelbronn in north-east France (inconveniently close to the German border). Its tiny oil industry consisted of a tight cartel of refiners, which depended on Standard Oil for its crude. Many in the French elite shared Clemenceau’s reported disdain for a grubby business. ‘Whenever I need oil’, Clemenceau supposedly sniffed, ‘I ask my épicier’ (épicier, or grocer, being the pejorative term for any small-time businessman).

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A crowd in Baghdad gather to hear a British proclamation following the capture of the city, March 1917. Library of Congress. Public Domain.

Acute oil shortages in March and April 1917 left Clemenceau begging US President Woodrow Wilson for increased supplies. A lesson, however, seemed to have been learned. As the French ambassador told the British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour in January 1919: ‘The war has brought to light the grave inconvenience of the French position as regards petroleum. In order to ensure that the needs of the people and of National Defence were satisfied, my Government saw clearly that it was not sufficient to enter into contracts with the big producing and trading oil companies.’ A stake in oil production had become a prerequisite of Great Power status.

Like the British and the Americans, the French formed a special government department to supervise petroleum supplies, formulate policy and coordinate various civil, military and naval departments. These were staffed with oil company executives on secondment; even private enterprise could learn to like state intervention. It provided opportunities to stymie rivals and create monopolies, while appearing ‘patriotic’. As we have seen, Anglo-Persian had shown itself to be more talented at lobbying the British state than at producing oil. In March 1914 it had persuaded ministers that its Anglo-Dutch rival, Royal Dutch-Shell, was in fact German-controlled. Three months later, the First Lord of the Admiralty, Winston Churchill, stated in the House of Commons that Royal Dutch-Shell had shown itself willing to help Britain ‘for a price’, a remark which stung company chiefs Henri Deterding and Marcus Samuel. As it happens, the war had demonstrated that the Allies could be sure of Shell.

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British soldiers on picket in Iraq durong the First World War. Library of Congress. Public Domain.

If the war had answered this question, it had left many others open. Energy security was indeed a matter of national importance, but how could Great Powers achieve that security in the case of oil? By ‘physical control’ – that is, by seizing and holding oil-bearing regions such as Mosul through force of arms? By nationalising, controlling or otherwise supporting certain oil companies so as to bring their policy in line with state policy? Or, at the other extreme, by forswearing imperialism and economic ‘spheres of influence’, allowing a variety of multinational companies to develop oil fields across the globe, fostering a thriving free-market in times of peace as well as of war? Even Sykes recognised that talk of ‘spheres of influence’ was sounding anachronistic in 1918. In the era of President Wilson’s 14 Points, ‘physical control’ was best exerted by proxy, through protectorates, mandates or puppet states.

Lloyd George and Clemenceau’s agreement continues to flummox historians, particularly French ones, who have tried to claim that Clemenceau’s apparent ‘gift’ was in fact an exchange: Mosul was supposedly traded for British support of a proposed Rhineland republic as a Franco-German buffer state. A closer look at contemporary diplomatic traffic finds British and French officials equally flummoxed. Nobody at the Foreign Office had heard of Lloyd George’s bargain until June 1919, six months later. Nor did they think much of his plan to have a fully state-owned company exploit Mosul’s oil, shutting out TPC (Lloyd George despised Marcus Samuel and did not want Shell to profit by his Mosul grab). This entity’s activities would extend ‘from Egypt to Burmah, and from Circassia to the Persian Gulf … an offset to the great American interests’. Foreign Secretary Curzon’s marginalia (in his usual green ink) makes his view clear: ‘This is great nonsense.’

Lausanne: The Greek Temple and the Scrambled Eggs

A nationalist movement led by an army officer, Mustafa Kemal, had rallied the defeated Turks and driven a Greek invasion force into the sea at Izmir. Led from the town of Ankara in central Anatolia, the regime’s authority swelled with every defector from the government of Sultan Mehmed VI in Istanbul. In August 1920 his ministers had signed the Treaty of Sèvres, whose punitive terms partitioned the Empire between Greece, Italy, France and Britain, leaving the capital of a rump ‘Empire’ under international administration in a demilitarised zone. Two years later, British forces guarding the Dardanelles straits (also under international administration) found themselves toe-to-toe with Kemal’s triumphant troops. Faced with the prospect of renewed fighting, Lloyd George did not blink, but his backbenchers in the Palace of Westminster did, forcing him from power in October 1922.

The Sèvres treaty had been overtaken by events, necessitating a new settlement at Lausanne. The quintessential imperial proconsul, Lord Curzon had toured Persia in 1889-90 and served as Viceroy of India. He felt that he understood how to handle ‘orientals’. He welcomed the arrival at Lausanne of Joseph Grew and Richard Washburn Child, sent by the US State Department as observers. This was an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone and to give two upstart nations new to the international stage (Turkey and the US) a masterclass in Great Power diplomacy.

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King Faisal I of Iraq, c.1920. Library of Congress. Public Domain.

At first the contest between Curzon and his Turkish opposite number, Ismet (who became the first prime minister of Turkey, later adopting the surname Inönü) had seemed far from fair. Ismet’s cable traffic with Kemal was intercepted by British intelligence; Ismet seemed physically weak as well as partly deaf and prone to petulant rants. Among the questions on the table was the location of the border between eastern Turkey and the British mandate of Iraq, where the Hashemite Faisal had been crowned king in 1921. Did Mosul and its oil belong to Turkey or Iraq? A related question was the 1914 Lettre Vizirielle, promising the Mosul oil concession to TPC. Was this promise still in force, or was Mosul’s oil up for grabs again?

Although Curzon disliked the ‘hole and corner way’ in which oil executives sought to influence diplomats, he believed that TPC held a valid claim and that Mosul belonged in Iraq; the mountains to its north created a natural frontier. Kemal disagreed and claimed it for Turkey. He sent Turkish troops on raids deep into British-controlled Iraq. But at Lausanne Ismet struggled to get his points across. On 25 January 1923 Child wrote that ‘it was a Greek temple against a dish of scrambled eggs’.

Grew and Child sought to teach Curzon a respect for the principle of ‘the Open Door’, under which the former Ottoman Empire should be a level playing field for investment by all nations, without the preferential treatment and restrictions associated with national ‘spheres of interest’. ‘To establish the Open Door policy in Turkey would be a real contribution to the world’s peace’, Child wrote in his diary. ‘It would break the vicious connection between commercial expansion of the greater powers and their diplomacy of political intrigue within smaller nations.’

Child was aware that such principles could be seen as a means of pushing the claims of American claimants to Mosul’s oil, such as Admiral Colby Chester. The Turks saw the value of playing the Americans off against the British and awarded Chester the concession in April 1923. Without warning Curzon, Grew and Child issued a statement to the press demanding an ‘Open Door’. They also sought to unscramble Ismet. It worked. Despite ‘treatment which would make the third degree in a Harlem police station seem like a club dinner’, Ismet stood firm in the face of British and French demands during a marathon session which lasted until two in the morning: ‘I saw Ismet the next morning and he looked ten years older, but we had won our fight.’ The ‘we’ is striking. It was the first tentative step of US diplomacy into the ‘Near East’, a region in which, missionaries apart, they had almost no stake. At least, not in 1923.

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Oil wells and camp of the Iraq Petroleum Company, Kirkuk, 1932. Library of Congress. Public Domain.

Curzon became increasingly isolated. Thanks to a domestic press campaign to get Britain ‘out of Mespot’, Prime Minister Bonar Law was ‘longing to clear out of Mosul, the Straits [Istanbul]; willing to give up everything and anything rather than have a row’, according to Harold Nicolson. French Prime Minister Raymond Poincaré also turned on Curzon, who left Lausanne on 4 February. Talks collapsed. Though they resumed in April, Curzon did not return. To his disgust, the Lausanne negotiations ran in parallel with negotiations to reorganize TPC yet again, this time to admit both the French and the Americans.

In the end, the Americans and the French used dalliances with the new Turkish regime as well as talk of the ‘Open Door’ as a means of securing their share of Mosul’s oil. They achieved this not by ‘physical control’ but by persuading the Foreign Office to put pressure on Anglo-Persian and Royal Dutch-Shell to allow American and French oil companies into TPC. ‘The end of the Lausanne Conference is indeed a sordid anti-climax’, agreed one of Curzon’s colleagues, ‘squabbling over money and rights of capitalists, with an America fouled by oil in the background and the spirit of an insolently triumphant Angora [i.e. Ankara] government over all.’

Whose oil?

After Lausanne it was clear that room would have to be found within TPC for the Americans and the French. It took another five years to work out a final arrangement, however. This settlement was still being negotiated when Baba Gurgur roared into life in 1927. By that point the League of Nations had ruled on the Mosul border question, determining that it belonged with the rest of Iraq. On 31 July 1928 the so-called Red Line Agreement saw the US, British, French and Dutch participants agree to divide TPC five ways: the four main partners would each hold 23.75 per cent, with five per cent left over for the remarkable Anglo-Armenian dealmaker who had founded the company and steered so much of the process from behind the scenes: Calouste Gulbenkian.

Under the self-denying ordinance, these companies and Gulbenkian (who was an individual, not a company) agreed not to explore or drill within the vast area circumscribed by the eponymous red line, except through TPC. This line followed the 1914 borders of the Ottoman Empire and so included the Arabian peninsula and Persian Gulf (excluding Kuwait and Persia), as well as Mosul and the rest of Iraq. Although Mussolini’s state oil firm AGIP had a brief toehold in the 1930s, TPC (renamed Iraq Petroleum in 1929) held an exclusive concession to the country until 1961, after the Hashemite monarchy had been deposed in an army coup led by Abd al-Karim Qasim. As the Suez Crisis of 1956 demonstrated, the US had replaced Britain as Middle East hegemon, even inheriting its rivalry with Russia.

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Between its establishment in 1912 and the 1928 Red Line Agreement, the constituent elements of TPC had been repeatedly rearranged. Some changes were driven by diplomatic necessity: British and German diplomats forced Royal Dutch-Shell and Deutsche Bank to admit Anglo-Persian in early 1914. When the First World War removed Germany from the picture, a new oil entente between Britain and France emerged, driven by a Francophile faction at the Foreign Office led by Edward Grey’s former private secretary, Sir William Tyrrell. Lloyd George’s Mosul grab was thus softened in a way that left some British diplomats pondering why so much had been conceded to France when its position in the Middle East was so weak. US pressure in support of the ‘Open Door’ played a role in encouraging the British to be accommodating.

It would be foolish to present the oil companies as pawns of the Great Powers. In 1903 Deutsche Bank had been cajoled by Kaiser Wilhelm’s Drang nach Osten (‘push to the east’) into investing in the Berlin-Bosphorus-Baghdad railway project. Soon, however, Mosul oil was promising to make what had been a white elephant into a cash cow. Deutsche Bank was happy to take a quarter stake in TPC, as it recognised the importance of having access to the London stock exchange’s capital reserves. Meanwhile, Royal Dutch-Shell, Anglo-Persian and Standard Oil did more than lobby the British and French governments; they manipulated them to the detriment of their rivals.

The most dramatic example of this was the contest between Anglo-Persian and Royal Dutch-Shell for control of British oil policy. In 1914 Anglo-Persian was in the ascendant, securing half of TPC practically for free. After the end of the war, however, Deterding turned the tables, in discussions intended to reassure the British government that Royal Dutch-Shell would remain under British control. Royal Dutch-Shell used these discussions to negotiate a controlling stake in Anglo-Persian and came close to pulling it off. As one company director noted, all the British government’s talk about ‘control’ was ‘very largely nonsense’, nothing but ‘a matter of sentiment’. ‘If by transferring control to the Hottentots we could increase our security and our dividends, I don’t believe any of us would hesitate for long.’ We recognise the voice of the multinational company for the first time, for whom national identities and loyalties are mere flags of convenience.

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An Iraq Petroleum Company oil driller at work, 1932. Library of Congress. Public Domain.

In establishing the National Bank of Turkey and TPC in 1909 and 1912, respectively, Gulbenkian had hoped to restore economic sovereignty to the Ottoman Empire. Both projects were supported by modernising ‘Young Turk’ reformers, whom Abdülhamid appointed to ministerial posts in the years after the so-called Young Turk Revolution of 1908. A bank and an oil company with multinational capital would, it was hoped, take the politics out of Ottoman imperial finance and economic development, as no single power would be able to push its own agenda. Unfortunately this experiment came too late. The Balkan Wars fostered increasing militarism and a racially defined national identity.

Like the troops that captured Mosul in 1918, the ‘British’ administrators who ran the mandatory regime in Iraq were more familiar with colonial India than London. As the Foreign Office noted with irritation, the Civil Commissioner for Iraq, Arnold Wilson, considered himself ‘trustee of the interests of the future Iraq state’. He was not about to hand ‘a comparatively small number of shareholders, the whole interests of the Iraq State and of the British Treasury in what might well prove to be the richest oilfields in the world’. He supported Iraqi finance minister Sasun Hasqayl in his demands for an Iraqi shareholding in TPC, rather than merely a royalty.

Attempts to foster a national identity that transcended Iraq’s ethnic and sectarian divides were undermined by British public opinion (weaponised by the Rothermere press), which demanded a rapid withdrawal from ‘Mespot’ on the grounds of economy. In an uncanny foreshadowing of today’s US drone programme, RAF aircraft were used to bomb villages who refused to pay taxes to Baghdad, or were otherwise uncooperative. Although such ‘air control’ could be presented as novel and high-tech, this was security on the cheap. Britain cut and ran, leaving King Faisal’s three million subjects in the hands of a narrow Sunni elite (when only a fifth of the overall population was Sunni). Prime Minister Nuri al-Said and the rest of what TPC came to call ‘the old gang’ engaged in the same kind of rent-seeking behaviour as Abdülhamid had. Estates appropriated by Abdülhamid in the 1890s, which had become ‘State Lands’ under the mandatory regime, were appropriated by ‘old gang’ ministers in the 1920s. Sheikh Tabour’s father would have found it all very familiar.

Jonathan Conlin is Senior Lecturer in Modern History at the University of Southampton. This article originally appeared in the January 2018 issue with the headline ‘A Crude History of the Great War’.

Featured Photo credit and description: Iraq Petroleum Company workers laying a pipe line south of Kirkuk, Iraq, 1932. Library of Congress. Public Domain.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Levant’s Agora.

Original source: https://www.historytoday.com/archive/feature/battle-oil-first-world-war

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