Month: June 2022

A lightly edited version of this article appeared on News18 here.

“BJP is perfecting the art of losing elections, but forming governments,” wrote Sitaram Yechury, commenting on the current political crisis in Maharashtra. This is a rather ironic statement from a party which has perfected the art of not fighting elections, but managing Rajya Sabha seats through political networking. Nevertheless, this charge is repeated by opposition parties, sections of the media and political commentariat. The BJP is able to arm-twist its opponents, and destabilize governments. Just see what they appear to be doing in Maharashtra. Is this ‘democracy?’

Of course, none of this commentary takes into account what the people of Maharashtra actually voted for. In the 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won a comfortable majority of 161 out of 288 seats. The vote share of the winning combine was 42 percent, while the NCP and the Congress together scored only 32 percent. A closer analysis of the results reveals something even more stark. The BJP won 105 seats, or nearly 70 percent of the 152 seats it contested. In contrast, the Shiv Sena won only 56 out of the 124 seats it contested, which works out to just 45 percent. How exactly was this a mandate for BJP to sit in the opposition?

And yet, I cannot seem to remember any tears for Devendra Fadnavis, or for ‘democracy,’ when the Shiv Sena walked across to embrace the two losing parties and form a government. Instead, there were tributes to the political intelligence of the one or many Chanakyas of Maharashtra politics. So why complain now? Is politics still the art of the possible or not?

In truth, this complaining comes from the fact that much of the self styled intellectual, media and activist class is emotionally invested in deep hatred against the BJP. The other day, one editor of a major national channel, who could not control his feelings on television, described the BJP as a “marauding carnivore” in Maharashtra. One wonders if he would have used such severe language against any other political party. More importantly, would anyone have dared to?

It must be noted that this hatred against the BJP is as much opportunistic as it is ideological. Observe that those who talk about a lack of ideology in politics in the current situation have forgotten to ask the most basic ideological question of all. Both factions of the Shiv Sena swear by their loyalty to the Hindutva ideology. So is Hindutva good or bad? If Hindutva is bad, why would India’s most secular political parties want to ally with the Shiv Sena? If Hindutva is good, why has the secular, liberal and intellectual class in this country been comparing it to Nazi ideology? Does it not mean that the intellectual class is as ideologically compromised, if not more, as defecting MLAs who are currently floating between Surat, Mumbai and Guwahati?

Even as single largest party, BJP frequently sits in opposition

“I am Pramod Mahajan, member of the Lok Sabha. I belong to the single largest party and I’m in opposition.” Who can forget these words from 1997, when the BJP had 161 seats, but the Congress with 140 seats, the Janata Dal with just 46 seats and the CPI(M) with only 32 seats were in power? And who can forget 1999, when the Vajpayee government fell by one vote? In fact, the BJP had to become the single largest party not once, not twice, but thrice before it could get a full term in power. This must be some kind of record.

Contrary to the current narrative, it is much more likely for other parties to gang up against the BJP, or force the BJP into losing bargains, only to betray the BJP in the end. The Maharashtra situation, where the BJP has been in opposition despite having nearly twice as many seats as the second largest party, is only one example. The BJP was in a similar situation in Karnataka after the 2004 Assembly elections. The BJP had 79 seats, but the Congress with 67 seats and the JDS with 48 seats came together to form the government. This is basically a repeat of the 2018 situation, when the BJP won 104 seats, but the Congress with 80 seats and the JDS with 37 seats came to power, despite being rejected by the people.

After the 2005 election in Jharkhand, the BJP had 30 seats in the 81 member assembly, but the JMM and a bunch of other parties came to power. In Delhi in 2013, the BJP was again the single largest party with 32 sets out of 70, but the AAP and the Congress quickly formed an arrangement to keep the BJP out of power.

The case of Karnataka is particularly curious, and galling, for the BJP. After the 2004 Assembly election, the BJP was the single largest party, but the Congress managed to come to power with the support of the JDS. However, midway through the term, the JDS walked out of the alliance. H D Kumaraswamy of JDS then became chief minister with BJP support, with the understanding that the BJP and the JDS would share the post of chief minister for 20 months each. But when it was time to hand over the chief ministership to the BJP, the JDS simply backtracked on the deal, leaving the BJP out cold. 

Even in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP has a similar story to tell. After the 2002 Assembly elections, the BJP and BSP were supposed to take turns of two and half years each for the post of chief minister. Of course, Mayawati took her turn first. And when her two and half years as chief minister were nearing an end, the BSP just walked out of the deal. And all this happened with the Vajpayee government still in power at the center.

By contrast, the ability of the Congress to arm twist other political parties, both friendly parties and not so friendly parties, appears almost magical. In the 2004 election, the Congress won 69 seats, two seats less than the 71 won by its ally the NCP. This was even more surprising because the Congress had contested 157 seats, while the NCP had contested only 124. And yet, the NCP humbly offered the post of chief minister to the Congress party. Compare this to the situation after 2019 Assembly elections, when the BJP won nearly twice as many seats as its ally the Shiv Sena, but failed to get any share in power, let alone the post of chief minister. Also compare this to Bihar, where the BJP has 73 seats and the JDU has just 43 seats, but the post of chief minister remains with Nitish Kumar. In fact, I wonder if there is a single instance (outside of recent times in tiny assemblies in Goa or the North-East), where the Congress has been in opposition despite being the single largest party. There may be one example in the absolute humiliation faced by Rajiv Gandhi in the 1989 election, where the Congress crashed from 414 seats in 1984 to 197 seats in 1989. And that didn’t last. 

The BJP’s predecessor, the Jan Sangh, was treated just as badly

In the 1977 election, all opposition parties came together to oppose Indira Gandhi’s Emergency. The resulting Janata Party was a common platform with each constituent party such as the Bharatiya Lok Dal, the Jan Sangh, the Congress(O) and Congress(R) preserving their own political identity. The Jan Sangh had the largest number of MPs among the 295 seats won by the Janata Party. But only 3 ministries were conceded to the Jan Sangh, one each for Vajpayee, Advani and Brijlal Verma. 

And the marginalization of the Jan Sangh did not stop there. The other factions of the Janata Party began raising the issue of “dual membership,” a targeted move to harass the Jan Sangh leaders who were also members of the RSS. Ultimately, the Jan Sangh members were expelled, and the Janata Party government collapsed. 

“The rationale of the birth of the BJP lies in the fact that we opposed a ban on our ties with the RSS, which was sought to be imposed by the Janata Party leaders,” Advani said. He was speaking at the BJP’s silver jubilee celebrations in Mumbai in 2005. 

Congress always got better deals from allies than BJP ever did

You do not even need to look beyond Maharashtra to understand this phenomenon. For the BJP, the Shiv Sena was always a rebellious and troublesome ally. In both presidential elections that happened during UPA rule, the Shiv Sena voted with the Congress. The first time, in 2007, they argued it was because UPA candidate Pratibha Patil was a daughter of Maharashtra. The second time, in 2012, the Sena again voted with the Congress, perhaps just to put BJP in its place.

Since then, the same Shiv Sena has become a Congress ally. And apparently also given up on its rebellious streak. Can anyone name an issue where the Shiv Sena broke ranks with the Congress since 2019, or expressed a difference of opinion? Also, power sharing among MVA partners happens on a strictly equal basis; one-third each for the Sena, the NCP and the Congress. This is the same Shiv Sena that would not concede equal partner status to the BJP in Maharashtra in all the decades since 1990.

The same pattern repeats across other states. In Bihar, the JDU has gone public against the BJP on any number of issues, from CAA to caste census, and most recently the new recruitment policy of the armed forces. The JDU also hobnobs frequently with the RJD, constantly keeping the BJP on notice. But when the JDU was allied with the Congress between 2013 and 2017, there is no instance of the JDU going against the Congress line. In fact, Sonia Gandhi was always given pride of place in the 2015 Mahagathbandhan of RJD, JDU and Congress, despite the fact that the Congress had won just 4 seats in the 2010 elections.

This exaggerated respect for the Congress also reflects in the seat sharing deals that the Congress gets from its allies. As many as 40 seats were offered to the Congress in 2015 by the RJD and the JDU, which exceeded by far any ground strength the party might have. This was increased to 70 seats in 2020, when the JDU was no longer with the Congress and RJD. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK allowed the Congress to contest 9 Lok Sabha seats, despite the latter having a marginal presence. In Uttar Pradesh in 2017, Akhilesh Yadav offered a staggering 114 seats to the Congress. They won just 7.

But why does the BJP still “seem” more arrogant than the Congress?

As of the writing of this article, Hemant Soren’s JMM has still not stated its position on the NDA’s presidential candidate Droupadi Murmu. That’s right. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha has still not expressed support for the first tribal person who is set to become President of India. In other words, there is no such thing as a ‘rebellious’ Congress ally.

We have been all around the map by now. From Delhi in the north, to Bihar and Jharkhand in the east, to Maharashtra in the west, and Karnataka in the south, it is always the Congress that is more capable of getting other political parties to do their bidding. But then, this general illusion of an all powerful BJP arm-twisting everyone else, where does it come from?

Because, at the root of all this, it is about privilege. The Congress is still seen as royalty, the Modi-Shah led BJP are still seen as upstarts. When the Congress exercises its power and control, they give off an aura of executing the divine right of kings. When the ‘upstarts’ begin to assert themselves, they just seem more arrogant. That is why we hear questions about how Modi can become Prime Minister when the BJP got “just 31 percent” of the vote in 2014. I cannot say. Perhaps because 31 percent is the highest for any ruling party at the center since 1991.

One internet meme that I saw before the 2014 general elections comes to mind here. It went something like this. “Remember that Congress needs 150 seats to form the government. The BSP or SP need just 40 seats, RJD or JDU need maybe 30 seats, and the AAP maybe just 10 seats. But if BJP wins 271 seats, Narendra Modi will be the Leader of the Opposition.” 

That particular meme may have been an exaggeration, but it was funny because we know it contains a lot of truth. And perhaps it was not even an exaggeration. Which political party other than BJP has ever lost a government by one vote?

A lightly edited version of this article appeared in Firstpost here.

Is the bulldozer destroying the Indian constitution? No, it is not. Do not listen to the activist class. They are only angry because they know that the bulldozer works. They wanted an Indian state that was paralyzed. They wanted to see a democratically elected government that is helpless. They wanted a silent majority whose votes no longer matter. The bulldozer is a threat to that dream.

How should the Indian state have responded to the outburst of violence that swept across our streets last Friday? There can be no doubt that this was a coordinated attack.  Crowds of stone pelters in several cities, across nearly half a dozen states, all at the same time. In each case, they knew for instance that they had to place minors in front, making it even more difficult for the police to respond. In other words, somebody has been coaching these people on the tactics of street violence. 

In India, rioting is not new. But the use of large scale coordinated violence by political pressure groups, essentially trying to rule the republic through the streets, has now been repeated several times since the 2019 general elections. We saw this during the anti-CAA protests, then the so-called farmer protests, and again over the last one week. Our police personnel, who are outnumbered, underfunded and with little training, do not know what to do. The judicial system is too slow, and too backed up to act as a deterrent, or provide justice within a reasonable time frame. In any case, it is nearly impossible to convict individuals in a crowd. How do you prove who threw which stone? 

They have figured out that street violence works. And they are going to use it again and again. To twist a popular line from a recently released movie, sarkar kisi ki bhi ho, sadak to unki hai. 

For the moment, the Indian state, or at least governments in BJP ruled states, appear to have found the answer in the bulldozer. Identify those accused of rioting, their homes and then go over their property documents with a fine toothed comb. If there are any discrepancies found, which is almost always the case, demolish them. It works because municipal laws are too confusing, open to interpretation and resolution of disputes takes too long. In other words, it is a way for the state to exploit the same weaknesses in the system that makes rioters believe they will never face punishment. And by all accounts, the general public is cheering this new approach. Towards the end, the BJP turned the Uttar Pradesh elections into a virtual referendum on the bulldozer, and won.

The activist class is furious. The bulldozer is of course big, powerful and easy to demonize. They say India is going fascist. But they would have said that anyway, no matter what the Indian state actually did. For instance, tear gas and water cannons are standard instruments of crowd control, used all over the world, from Germany and Switzerland to France, Belgium and Italy. But when they were used during so called farmer protests, they said that was fascist too. Anything that the Indian government does is a human rights violation, just because the activists say so.

With regards to the bulldozer, they are twisting facts in at least two ways. For one, they make it appear as if the government has violated the principle of  ‘innocent until proven guilty.’ How can you demolish somebody’s house? Have they been convicted by a court of law? No, but if you are asking this question, it means that you have mixed up civil cases with criminal cases.  The bulldozer imposes a civil penalty, not a criminal one. Civil cases do not operate in terms of “guilty” or “innocent,” but simply a dispute between parties. In civil cases, there is no such thing as “conviction” and therefore no such thing as a presumption of innocence. Accordingly, the burden of proof is much lower than in criminal court. So which legal principle has been violated?

Secondly, it is common all across the world for governments to claim civil damages when criminal prosecution is difficult. I am not talking about countries in the Arab world, which have recently emerged as the ironic heroes of Indian liberalism. I am talking about democratic countries. In America, this is known as civil forfeiture. Instead of charging a person with a crime, law enforcement seizes assets or items that might have been used in committing the crime. The police will take possession of houses, boats, cars and cash that gangs or drug mafia might use. Again, this is easier, because the burden of proof in civil cases is much lighter than in criminal cases. Because property does not have the same rights as people do. 

It is difficult to convict someone for being involved in gang violence. Just as it would be difficult to convict someone who is pelting stones as part of a mob. That is why the United States uses civil forfeiture to break the power of organized crime. What is wrong if the government in say Uttar Pradesh or Madhya Pradesh uses the same technique of applying civil penalties against rioters? 

Does anyone remember what happened in Canada earlier this year? A group of truckers blocked the roads and a few key bridges, disrupting  trade between the US and Canada. The Canadian government reacted swiftly, imposing a national emergency. The bank accounts of the truckers were frozen. They were locked out of their life’s savings, unable to pay bills or make mortgage payments, which could lead to banks taking away their homes and cars. They were not even allowed to buy fuel to keep themselves warm in Canada’s brutal winter. Even those who had contributed to online fundraisers to support the protesters were threatened with a similar seizure of assets. At one point, local authorities in the Canadian capital of Ottawa even threatened to take away minor children from parents who had been at the protest.

The pressure worked. The protest was broken up within a week. And nobody in the global media, or the activist class, dared to say that the Canadian government is authoritarian. You will find Canada at the top or near the top of all supposed indexes on freedom, human rights and civil liberties. It is only “fascist” when Uttar Pradesh does it. Apparently, governments in non-Western countries do not have the right to safeguard their streets. We must surrender our streets to mob violence, and live by the whims of the activist class.

Why this hypocrisy? At the root of this is a common misunderstanding of what “activism” really is. We often think of an “activist” as an individual who is fighting for the underprivileged in some way. While a handful of folks might indeed be fighting for a better world, the exact opposite is true for the vast majority of organized activism. The real purpose of organized activism is to erect barriers to protect privileged spaces. To get anything done, you have to go over the heads of lawyers, civil society groups and their media contacts who could tie you down with legal troubles or destroy your reputation. Who can pay these additional costs? It is those who have privilege. At first glance, this may seem like a shakedown of the wealthy, but it really is not. These costs serve as an entry barrier that keeps the insiders in charge, making it difficult for outsiders to challenge them. The relationship between the activist class and the privileged is not one of extortion, but of cooperation.

This is why wealthy western governments maintain a large activist class. It allows them to pursue their geopolitical interests, as well as safeguard their own sovereignty. This is why Canada can get away with imposing a national emergency and seizing bank accounts of protesters. In India, the bulldozers, tear gas and even water cannons are likely to get bogged down by accusations of “fascism.”  The activist class is also how “old power” protects itself from the onslaught of “new power.” Anyone with any sense of Indian politics can see that governments run by parties of the old “liberal” establishment are subject to much less scrutiny than a BJP government.  

In the end, it is the political class, and not the activist class, that has to answer to the people of India. Those in power have a duty to safeguard our streets. And they seem to have found an answer in the bulldozer, which imposes a civil penalty that drastically raises the cost of participating in street violence. The state cannot let itself be bullied, for now.

One of my bad habits is that I watch a whole lot of Ravish Kumar videos, and that I tweet about them. There was this time fairly recently when Ravish ji went on a short break. When he returned, I noticed that he had made a few changes to his studio for prime time. He had added a framed portrait of himself to the background, alongside the portrait of Mahatma Gandhi. I tweeted about that. The next time I saw his show, it was gone. Not the portrait of Mahatma Gandhi, the portrait of Ravish Kumar was gone. Is Ravish ji reading my tweets? I do not know.

Anyways. So the other day when the youtube algorithm threw up this video of Ravish Kumar speaking at the Jaipur Literature Festival in 2020, I clicked on it instantly. What would Ravish ji say to an audience of cultivated social elites, with an obvious interest in history, culture, religion and politics? They appeared to cheer his every word, so here is an extract, loosely translated from Hindi (watch from 9:10 onwards):

“It is Jan 26 today… in 4 days he [Mahatma Gandhi] is going to be assassinated. For five years, they have been taking his name. Actually, if you look at the chronology, 1948 came first and Jan 26, 1950 came later. “

Let me interrupt here, to mention the loud cheers from the crowd when Ravish Kumar mentioned the word “chronology.” Listen carefully to what Ravish ji says next (again, loosely translated from Hindi):

“Let me tell you … Chronos is a Greek god of time, and he eats up kids. The word chronology has come from there …. That is why it is important for you to understand chronology. This is not just the order of time. This is a sign that you are about to go crazy.“

Again, loud cheers from the crowd at Jaipur Literature Festival. There was a bit of stunned silence though in the middle, as Ravish Kumar spoke about the god Chronos eating up kids.

I thought I would check this gory story of the Greek god who eats children. Indeed, the word “chronology” is derived from Chronos, the Greek god of time. So did Chronos eat children?

No! Or at the very least, there was no such thing on Wikipedia. This struck me as strange. You would think Wikipedia would mention something about this. But no. That is when a little note in the upper corner of the Wikipedia article on “Chronos” caught my eye.

It is clear now. It was obviously a mixup between “Chronos” and “Cronus.” The word “chronology” is not related to Cronus, but derived from Chronos. This may seem like a minor issue, even pedantic. But given how sinister it sounded, the dark story told about Chronos eating children and the way the crowd responded to the word “chronology,” can we let go of it so easily? So what does this episode say about Ravish Kumar, the people he was addressing, and liberalism in general?

First of all, this was no ordinary crowd that Ravish Kumar was speaking to. This was a crowd at Jaipur Literature Festival. These people are social elites. They are supposed to know things. Many of them are the kind of people that like to dismiss others as “Whatsapp University.” And yet, nobody spoke up. Nobody interrupted to correct the speaker. The interviewer had no clue, and neither did the audience. But why?

Second, even if nobody in that huge crowd of social elites knew, they at least had the means of finding out. I would safely estimate that 95 percent, possibly even 100 percent of them, were carrying smartphones. It would have taken only a few seconds to check out the story, and pinpoint the mixup between “Cronus” and “Chronos.” When I heard the story, I certainly wanted to know more. How come nobody in the audience felt the same way? It is okay not to know stuff, but how is it okay not to have a questioning attitude?

There is another reason why this story caught my attention. Because a keyword like “eating babies,” and its emotional effect on an audience, cannot be taken lightly. In the US, there is this crazy conspiracy theory known as QAnon. It falsely alleges that there is a vast ring of child eating pedophiles in the United States, run by top politicians. The effects of this false campaign have been extraordinarily dangerous. Unhinged people, who believe in this conspiracy theory, have gathered mobs and carried out armed attacks against those they believe are engaged in satanic sacrifices of children. Since then, tech platforms have been struggling to get rid of pages that advance the QAnon conspiracy theory, and the FBI has now assessed them as a domestic terror threat.

Am I saying that Ravish Kumar was lying to his audience or doing anything wrong? Absolutely not. Let me prove to you that Ravish ji was not lying. When I quoted him above, I had left out some bits of what he said. Last time, I used “…” in those places. So here it is in full, again loosely translated from Hindi:

“Let me tell you. My English is not that good. Chronos is a Greek god of time, and he eats up kids. The word chronology has come from there. A friend who knows English told me this. That is why it is important for you to understand chronology. This is not just the order of time. This is a sign that you are about to go crazy.“

See? Ravish ji was only telling you what a friend had told him about the word “chronology” and its origins, including the story about the god who eats kids. Don’t blame Ravish Kumar. You might want to blame his friend who gave him all this fake information. Or maybe not. Maybe the friend heard this from another friend, and so on. Don’t ask me if this sounds like the definition of “Whatsapp University.” My English is also not that good.

Ravish Kumar did not lie, nor did he do anything wrong. In fact, I give him 100/100 for intellectual honesty.

Let me conclude by telling you something completely unrelated to the rest of the article. Do you know what propaganda is? Propaganda is often clubbed with lies, but the two are different. A good propagandist never lies. A good propagandist guides you gently to find the lie within your own heart, so that you can truly believe it.

A lightly edited version of this article appeared on News18 here.

“In India, the world’s largest democracy and home to a great diversity of faiths, we have seen rising attacks on people and places of worship.” These were the words of the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken the other day, as he waded directly into our internal affairs. Instead of dignifying that with a response, let us ask the real question. Which lobby is the US Secretary of State pandering to over there? What would leave the Biden administration so desperate that they have to appeal to a tiny slice of the activist class in Washington for support?

The answer is a tottering presidency, and an administration that no longer knows what it is doing. Just over a year into his term, President Biden is overwhelmingly unpopular. On every issue, from the economy to foreign policy and even coronavirus management, the public no longer believes in him. Let alone vote for him in 2024, opinion polls show that a staggering 70 percent of Americans don’t even want him to run! This includes members of his own party. with 51 percent of registered Democrats saying they want their party to nominate someone other than Biden.

All this means that everyone in Washington, as well as everyone else in the political class, is busy running away from the President. His party faces a tough challenge in the midterms elections in November this year, and is likely to lose its majority in both houses of the legislature. Democratic Party colleagues who want to save their political careers no longer seek Biden’s endorsement. In states where his party is hoping to pick up the governorship and a few seats, party candidates have refused to share a stage with Biden.

How did this happen? It was due to a series of crippling policy failures that left Americans struggling with shortages of basic items, high prices, a new war and a crisis of confidence in all their institutions. It got to a point where the country’s mainstream media, which mostly colludes with the Biden administration, could no longer paper over the problems of real people in their daily lives.

A baby food crisis

“What we are seeing which is an enormous problem is hoarding, people hoarding because they are fearful.” This is what the White House had to say on food shortages, in particular the crisis of baby food across the United States right now. The current crisis began some time in February. But even before that, Americans had been reporting shortages of basic items in grocery stores, through October and November last year. The breakdown of the supply chain, from a pileup at the country’s ports to a shortfall in trucking, meant that the US was running out of everything. There was no paper to print books, no rubber for tires, and no wood to make furniture. Some hospitals put out pleas to the local population, asking them to donate crutches and wheelchairs, due to a shortage of aluminum. 

The Biden administration responded with spin, telling people to feel good about the shortages. If there is a shortage, it must be because people have too much money, and they want to buy too much stuff. But by April this year, desperate mothers were lining up all across the country, sometimes driving dozens of miles, to look for a store that still had baby food. Major retailers began limiting how much baby food customers could buy at a time. Most stores were empty anyway.

As prices have skyrocketed, the resentment among the public has grown. Now the Biden administration is pointing fingers at mothers and their babies for hoarding, which makes them sound much more like the regime in say Venezuela or Zimbabwe.

GDP in negative territory, inflation at a 40 year high

In the November 2020 elections, Biden rode to power with a promise to “build back better,” after the devastation brought by the pandemic. But he has failed to pass his economic relief package, despite his party having a majority in both houses. Despite this, he had the low base effect on his side, and the GDP figures for 2021 looked respectable. But it is 2022 now, and the latest numbers show a 1.4 percent annualized decline in the first quarter. 

Meanwhile, inflation was shooting up. At first the administration said it wasn’t real. But people were paying more for everything, from cars to milk, meat and vegetables. By October or November last year, they said inflation was real, but only transitory. It would be over soon. By December, the White House put out a series of graphs, concocted by friendly Nobel winning economists, showing that high prices actually help the poor. By March, inflation soared to a 40 year high of 7.9 percent. This is when the Biden administration announced that it was all Russia’s fault. They dubbed it the “Putin price hike.” It didn’t catch on.

The inflation has hit 8.3 percent now, while GDP has slipped into negative territory. The New York Times tried to run a story on how the negative data was “masking” Biden’s economic recovery. But numbers usually don’t lie, regimes and their media often do.

Soaring crime in American cities

As if a baby food crisis, negative GDP growth and a 40 year high in inflation were not bad enough, American cities are at their most dangerous in decades. Murders in major American cities are now up by as much as 44 percent over 2019. In New York City, murders are up 52 percent over pre-pandemic levels. In Chicago, some 50 people were shot only last weekend. This has resulted in emergency measures, such as the city of Chicago imposing a curfew on any minor being out on the streets after dark. 

The situation has been complicated by the fact that Biden’s Democratic Party has come to be seen as soft on crime. Indeed, since mid 2020, much of his party’s left wing activist base has campaigned on a platform of defunding the police, and even outright calls to abolish the police. But crime has risen consistently since then, along with a general breakdown of law and order. Videos have gone viral showing thieves entering stores, filling their sacks with anything they want, and walking casually away. Coordinated robberies, where entire shopping blocks are stormed simultaneously, have become common. The fashionable downtown areas of many American cities now resemble war zones, with glass shop fronts all boarded up to prevent smash and grab robberies. While parking their cars, many people now choose to leave their windows down, so that thieves can see that there is nothing inside. This has left the Biden administration struggling to explain their soft on crime approach, trying to pretend that the far left anti-police elements of their party base do not exist. Or that they never existed.

A military defeat in Afghanistan, and a failing war in Ukraine

“Sanctions never deter,” an embarrassed President Biden told reporters in March 2022, the month after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This was of course the exact opposite of their position in January 2022, when Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said clearly that the purpose of sanctions was to deter Putin. Whatever the spin, the American people just have to live with the fact that US sanctions no longer work. Whoever saw images of the US military retreating in defeat from Afghanistan would know that the US is no longer the sole superpower. And this happened on Biden’s watch.

Now the war in Ukraine is going badly. And the American public is paying for the war daily at the pump, where gas prices have doubled. They also paid 40 billion dollars upfront for the war, when Biden hurriedly pushed through his military aid package for Ukraine. This at a time when American mothers were struggling to find baby food.  Remember that the money did not actually go to Ukraine. It went towards buying weapons from American defense contractors. The same defense contractors who usually donate to election campaigns of politicians. But top leaders of Biden’s Democratic party insisted that giving $40 billion to defense contractors was a Christian religious duty on the part of ordinary Americans. They quoted the Bible inside the House to make their point. 

Meanwhile, Russia continues its advance inside the Ukraine. America’s NATO allies continue to buy oil and gas from Russia. In fact, US sanctions had the opposite effect. It made relatively cheaper Russian crude more attractive in the global market. In 2022, Russia is running a current account surplus of $96 billion, nearly four times higher than the same period in 2021. And President Biden now says that Ukraine might have to give up territory to Russia after all. 

Allegations of personal corruption

Amid all the bad news, the Biden administration is also struggling to fend off allegations of corruption. Hunter Biden, the President’s son, is under investigation for tax fraud running into millions of dollars. And then there is the so-called “laptop from hell,” something that Hunter accidentally left behind at a repair shop in Delaware. It contains a huge cache of emails that suggest Hunter might have sold access to his father back when Joe Biden was vice-president in the Obama administration. In turn, Joe Biden’s son was paid huge sums of money to sit on boards of companies run by Ukrainian oligarchs, or firms linked to the Chinese Communist Party.

What makes the situation even more sinister is the fact that when the laptop was first revealed in October of 2020, just before the presidential election, it was dismissed as fake news by mainstream media. A class of ‘experts’ labeled  the laptop as part of a Russian disinformation campaign. This was followed by a severe clampdown by Big Tech, which banned people from sharing the story on any major social media platform. Since then, the laptop and the emails have been found to be genuine. A large section of the public now sees it as a deliberate cover up on part of media and tech companies to influence the outcome of the 2020 election.

A failed ‘Ministry of Truth’

In April 2022, Biden’s Department of Homeland Security announced the creation of a new body to be known as the “Disinformation Governance Board.” Its apparent purpose was to identify “disinformation” on various issues and treat those accused of spreading “disinformation” as security threats. Not surprisingly, many commenters immediately described it as an attempt by the Biden administration to silence critics. They called it a ‘Ministry of Truth,’ from Orwell’s dystopian novel.

It also did not inspire confidence that the new Board was supposed to be headed by one Nina Jankowicz, an expert seen as highly partisan. From her social media footprint, she appeared to have amplified allegations that the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation, as well as some rumors targeting Trump that turned out to be false. In one video, she even demanded the right to edit tweets by ordinary users that she thought lacked context, which many Americans found chilling. It got so bad that the Department of Homeland Security finally had to disband the Board after facing a month of all round ridicule. The Biden administration is now firmly in retreat, on all fronts.

Conclusion

Most of the failures of the Biden administration have followed a similar path. Start by denying that anything is wrong. Then, bring in friendly media and experts to whitewash people’s concerns, or “fact check” them away. And when it is too late, point fingers at others.

The Biden administration cannot rescue its political capital by bashing India. They might win some applause from the fringe left activist class that is still looking to squeeze out some favors from their administration. They might even appease some American religious lobbies which fund conversion and missionary activity within India. But it is much more likely that issues such as food shortages,  inflation, soaring crime, failed wars and corruption will dominate the polls. 

In recent months, the American liberal media, which is friendly to the Biden administration, has published a spate of articles blaming India on a number of issues. They blamed India for buying Russian oil, even though Europe was buying more by several orders of magnitude. First, India was hoarding vaccines, now wheat. Now they say India is intolerant towards religious minorities. These distractions won’t work for American liberals. They will still have to answer to ordinary Americans for those food shortages.

Which way does the Indian media lean? If only there was a way to find out for sure. Indeed there is. Have you ever heard of an association called the Press Club of India? The organization represents literally thousands of journalists all across India. All the big names in media, as well as all the names you never heard of, are part of it.

Every year, the Press Club holds an election to choose its office bearers, as they did a few weeks ago. And the dynamics are just as with any other election. There is campaign, there is intrigue, there is lobbying, as well as suspense about the outcome. So who won?

Ultimately, it wasn’t much of a contest. Those seen as left liberals swept the elections, winning all 21 seats on the panel. In fact, there are allegations that one side tried to “smear” the other as “BJP supporters.” In the world of media, “left-liberal” is a badge of honor. Calling someone a “BJP supporter” is a form of character assassination. In other words, if you have anything in common with 45 percent of the population of India, you are an outcast. And so, all 21 seats went to one side. Just think about that.

But wait. What about “godi media?” A bit like the yeti, this so called “godi media” is supposed to prowl the airwaves and the newspapers, generating tons of positive press coverage for PM Modi. You remember how the government failed to run special airplanes to get all Indian students (and their exotic pets) airlifted in time from their backyards in Ukraine. Some of them even had to take a crowded train to get out as the bombs were falling. The godi media tried to fool us by saying it was enough for the ministers to greet them with folded hands and roses at Delhi airport. Who will shine their shoes, pack their bags, and carry their luggage?

I am being sarcastic, of course. Even so, can we dismiss the idea of “godi media” offhand? There is a section of media that cheerleads the BJP. We’ve all seen it. We live in a democracy. If the media is not doing its job, then that is a problem for all of us. So let us unravel this, bit by bit, by asking intelligent questions. Who has the power when it comes to the media?

Journalism is a “union of states“

“Feud burns and kills,” ran the headline in one Kolkata based newspaper, a day after 10 people were burned alive in Birbhum in West Bengal. Who is this Feud? Can we arrest him please and bring him to justice? Oh, I know. The accused were all liberal TMC cadres, all of them members of a certain peaceful religion. Having run out of BJP workers to murder and terrorize, they are reduced to killing each other in mafia wars. That is why “Feud” bears all the blame.

What kind of “godi media” is this? Whose lap are they sitting in?

When we talk of “godi media,” let us first establish which elements in Indian media are being accused of cheerleading the BJP. Please give me the name of one Tamil news channel or newspaper that can be accused of being “godi media.” How about Bengali? I know there is one Malayalam channel that may be seen as soft on BJP. But you would be crazy to say that Malayalam media is “godi media.” How about Maharashtra? Show me one Marathi language media house that can speak truth to the power of …

I know. The allegation is against “national media.” But what is “national”? Do you mean Hindi language media? Why do you call that “national”? Does that mean you think Hindi is our national language? In fact, I was told we don’t even have a nation, just a union of states. But whenever necessary, you conveniently paper over all of Bengal, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, etc and insist that “Hindi-Hindu-Hindustan” should be taken as the definition of India!

Yes, the BJP does have a clear advantage when it comes to Hindi language media. But that is just because they run most of the Hindi speaking states. In fact, you should check out the affiliates of Hindi language media houses in Chhattisgarh. One was talking about how the Congress CM of Chhattisgarh was making waves in Uttar Pradesh, and how the BJP campaign lacked energy. That’s how the media is, in every state. Whoever rules the state also rules the media.

So tell me what do you find special about the BJP getting positive coverage in Hindi language media? Is Hindi special?

In fact, if you want to see an example of a state where the ruling party does not control the media, it is probably Gujarat. ” “56 ni chhatini kaayarta:,” (roughly translated: “cowardice of 56 inch”) that is how Gujarat Samachar mocked PM Modi the day after the terror attack in Pulwama. How is that “godi media“? Did you know Gujarat Samachar is the largest circulated newspaper in the state? Oh, and in case the liberals have forgotten, their most beloved “fact checking” website is based out of Gujarat too. How much of “godi media” is based out of West Bengal?

What does the gold standard of liberal journalism look like?

Have you ever heard the accusation that so called “godi media” distracts people from real issues? That’s why Indian liberals, like their counterparts around the world, worship the New York Times. The world’s most powerful newspaper uses a preening tagline for itself: “all the news that’s fit to print.” If it’s not in the New York Times, it is not worth knowing about.

This gold standard then, what does it look like? What is the useless, unprintable stuff that they leave out? For one, hungry babies. There is a baby formula crisis in America right now. New York City has declared an emergency about it. But don’t expect to read this on the front page of the New York Times. Roughly on the same day, the New York Times had a column about real issues. One of their columnists had been invited to lunch at the White House, and he wanted to let the world know that the chocolate milk shake was delicious. So what if the richest city in the world’s richest country has run out of food for babies?

That’s the global gold standard of journalism. Their guy Biden is in power, so you can’t blame him if America has run out of baby food. The columnist went on to say that he left with a feeling that Biden is actually getting less credit from the media than he deserves. This was after he had the chocolate milk shake, obviously. This is what the media would look like if the Congress was in power right now. I leave you to imagine what the media was like when the Congress had 400 seats.

Hungry babies are irritating. They just sit around in their mothers laps, crying and refusing to give credit to President Biden. Real godi media spotted, no?

Liberal media on the other hand, asks the real questions. Just like when US GDP slipped into negative territory last month, and inflation rocketed to a 40 year high. The New York Times explained that data was “masking” the real recovery. This is the genuine public interest journalism that liberals wish they could have in India. But we don’t. That is why the New York Times has to carry the burden of speaking the truth to power of PM Modi, for now.

Who chooses the issues?

I always like to explain the situation like this. Consider a test match to be played between India and Australia. Who has the advantage? The first thing you would ask here is where the test match is being played. If we are playing in Mumbai, we have the advantage. If we are playing in Melbourne, they have the advantage. The players may give their best for their respective sides, but what really matters is who prepared the pitch.

So before you accuse any media of choosing to side with the BJP, you must ask who chose the issue at hand. Okay, so some BJP government arrested a 21 year old. They walk out of custody after 24 hours, and begin their new life as a global thought leader and celebrity. You think some pro-BJP media channels are being harsh on her? Okay, but why are we even talking about this person? Why not about the dozens of BJP workers who have been murdered in Bengal?

Because while so called “godi media” chose sides, the liberals chose the issue itself. The “godi media” is simply batting on their pitch. Why was Modi sarkar 5 days late in issuing this or that advisory to students in Ukraine? When the Ukraine thing fizzled out, they rapidly moved on to the next issue. What about hijab in Karnataka? Won’t this “atmosphere” deter foreign investment in the state? Why are petrol prices so high? Why is the BJP government crowing about high GDP growth when it is just due to “base effect”? What is the big deal if India’s GDP has returned to pre pandemic levels: does it not mean near zero growth in 2 years? Where is Modi’s $5 trillion GDP: IMF says we can’t reach there before 2029! Why is India’s per capita GDP below Bangladesh now?

No, but wait! Even America or China couldn’t get their people out of Ukraine. Karnataka came first this year among all states in foreign investment. India’s FDI is at record levels. Modi govt reduced petrol prices, the opposition ruled states did not reduce their VAT. All over the world, the focus is on somehow returning to pre pandemic GDP levels: read the IMF reports. Experts said India would take much longer to reach pre-pandemic levels, but we raced ahead. As for $5 trillion, the IMF admitted that they made a mistake. We are actually expected to reach $5 trillion by 2026. This suggests that without the two years of pandemic, the 2024 goal was very achievable when it was proposed in 2019. As for Bangladesh’s per capita GDP crossing India, it was fake news. The IMF has accepted its errors and corrected all its arithmetic.

Phew! Do you see what is happening? One side is running non-stop, chasing a moving target that is spewing lies and half truths at breakneck speed. “Godi media” means nothing if it does not set the agenda.

For instance, what about the allegations of Jharkhand CM granting a mining lease to himself? Can we talk about that? Can we talk about how model state of Kerala is bankrupt, and begging the center for a 5000 crore loan? Why is Telangana struggling to pay its govt employees? Can we ask how Punjab became India’s most indebted state? Can we ask about political violence in Bengal? Did you even hear about the 6 month strike in MSRTC, on which the Maharashtra government cracked down by terminating literally thousands of daily wage workers? Or the anganvadi workers on strike in Delhi?

The so called “godi media” is not a distraction. In fact, it is “godi media” which is distracted, playing on someone else’s pitch all the time.

The incentives simply are not there for anyone to become “godi media”

With a talent pool of 1.4 billion people, why does India still win so few medals at the Olympic games? Ask anyone in India and they will give you the obvious answer. The incentives are not there. Other countries, especially rich Western ones, do a lot to support their athletes. We don’t.

But wait a second. Who says we don’t have incentives? Those who win Olympic gold medals from India become instant heroes. They are showered with money by governments, corporates, everyone.

So the real answer is more subtle. Yes, the incentives are there, but it is only for those who make it to the top somehow, swimming against all odds. And therein lies the difference.

This is the real reason there is no such thing as “godi media.” There might be incentives for a handful at the top, but what is there for a young right wing person who wants to get into journalism? At the beginning of this article, I mentioned the Press Club of India and how the leftists swept all 21 seats there. How do you think a young person would react when they see that kind of stranglehold? Journalism is not a highly paid profession. At the lower levels, they make almost nothing at all. Their entire career depends on who they meet and who recommends them. Like most Indians who had the potential to become athletes, those with right wing sympathies won’t even try to get into media.

Do you know who is the President of the Mumbai Press Club? It’s someone who is associated with The Wire. Now put yourself in the shoes of some 21 year old who is sympathetic to the BJP. Would you even try to get into media?

So here is the incentive structure for a young left winger getting into media. You will be walking into an environment where everyone loves and admires your ideology. There are plenty of avenues for advancement. You know this because you see your ideological heroes winning awards and honors each day. Both at the domestic level, and the highly sought after ones at the international level. The Pulitzers, the Magsaysays, full length pieces in the New York Times, the Washington Post, Le Monde, Deutsche Welle, Guardian, you name it. You see the most vituperative, hateful anti-Modi rants routinely appearing in global media. There are no sanity checks at all. One guy said that anybody who uses the word “Bharat” might be a secret Nazi. And he had a front page feature in TIME Magazine.

As for a right winger, there might be some incentives. But you better make some assumptions first. Let’s hope that your first boss, a lifelong comrade, treats you well despite the fact that he considers you a fascist. You will have 99 colleagues in your entry level position, who will cooperate with you despite calling you a Nazi. And when it is time for promotion, hope that your talent shines so bright that your comrade boss recommends your name instead of one of the 99 people that s/he likes. And who knows? Maybe the BJP will win the next 4 Lok Sabha elections as well, as you work your way through your 20s into your 40s. And then you might one day end up as a top level anchor on a “godi media” channel. It is certainly possible.

Also, do you want the world to recognize your talent? If your talent is so extraordinary, maybe the New York Times, which hasn’t changed its ideology in 100 years, will decide to make an exception for you. The incentives are there, my friend. You just have to be the best journalist in the last century. And your bosses have to be the nicest people on earth. Go ahead, give it a try…

The lack of experience in “godi media” shows

In the early days of the American republic, the robber barons who built railroads across the vast country often met with a lot of local opposition. There was a standard way for them to get around this problem. In those days, most cities would have two competing newspapers, on opposite ends of the political spectrum. The trick was to buy up both newspapers, secretly. The newspapers would then be allowed to continue their apparent quarrel in public view. One newspaper would take a sharply pro-railroad position. The other would attack the railroad, but over trivial issues. The more trivial the matter, the sharper the rhetoric. Behind the scenes, the two newspapers were actually cooperating, guiding the public towards the pro-railroad position.

Corruption in the media is not new. But this example shows you that it is a sophisticated thing, not for dummies. Which is your favorite hardcore leftist newspaper or news channel? You can almost certainly find a couple of instances when they stood up for some little injustice that a BJP supporter suffered somewhere. Did Mamata Banerjee arrest someone for posting a cartoon? Oh no! The left wing ecosystem is going to condemn it, sometimes in unison.

It’s engineered outrage. It is designed to create a smokescreen that will allow them to stay silent on much bigger stuff. When they complain about the guy who was arrested over a cartoon, they are building plausible deniability to stay silent when dozens of BJP workers are massacred. They are not biased, they just missed a few stories at most. The less important stuff was covered precisely so that the more important stuff could be covered up!

This is not the only trick. The liberal media hasn’t spent the last 100 years dominating the world while being clueless. The other day an article in the Wall Street Journal came out, detailing how India’s increased oil purchases were helping the Russian invasion. It began with a tiny bit about Europe’s failures, then went extensively into India’s conduct. It concluded with another tiny bit about China doing the same. The author knows which part will catch the reader’s eye, and where to use the most emotive language. The author knows at what point people are likely to stop paying interest. But on the whole, there is deniability. They mentioned everyone: China, Europe and India, so you can’t call it lobbying. It is a work of art.

Take the Gyanvapi case. Do you think liberals did not realize that videos would soon reveal the Shivling? Then why would they spread nonsensical talking points about it being a fountain? The aim was to create a heavy first round of media articles calling it a fountain. Now later on, no matter how much you try, those articles will remain. Anyone writing in future can claim that there was a controversy over whether it was a fountain or a Shivling! And it would be factually accurate as well. The later part, where everyone could see that it was a Shivling, can be conveniently left out.

This is what they did with the Godhra carnage. At the very beginning, they spread a bunch of lies about who set fire to the train. Now they just reference that controversy and omit the mention of the convictions and the court judgements that came much later.

As it stands today, such a sophisticated propaganda operation is simply beyond the capability of so called “godi media.” And why? Because, the talent pool they have to work with is extremely small. And whatever little comes through has no experience in propaganda. They haven’t trained with bosses who show them when to say “Delhi man killed” and when to say “man of XYZ religion killed.” They eliminated every potential right winger from the media at age 21 or less. Just like every potential Olympic gold medalist swimmer from India is probably working some dead end job today. Their village never had a swimming pool, they didn’t know where to train and how.

Conclusion

Godi media. The term has gone viral among anyone who does not like the BJP. Along with every other conspiracy theory. The infamous “IT cell” is out to get them, the Supreme Court is compromised, the EVMs are hacked, Covid spreads only in BJP rallies, and so on. Even the famously left leaning big tech companies like Twitter are in the pocket of Modi.

As a matter of fact, the specter of “godi media” is yet another phantom threat created by liberals to fool their ordinary supporters, and perhaps even themselves. Anything to divert from the fact that they are hopelessly out of touch with real people, and have a weak, incompetent, and fumbling leadership. That people have not completely forgotten how things used to work in the old days, when govt project completion dates were a joke. When govt schemes were a joke. It took India 60 years to surpass Pakistan in per capita GDP. The magic is that most people never even heard about it. They were taught instead about who went to Doon school and who went to Cambridge. About how criminal mafia bosses were simply “grassroots leaders,” corruption was labeled as “social justice,” and appeasing the most intolerant was called “secularism.”

In the greatest irony, “godi media” itself became another propaganda victory for the liberal crowd. Back in the days of liberal rule, they didn’t even have anyone to outrage against. They continued their war against phantom opponents. Who stopped India’s progress between 1947 and 1991? It was always the BJP, which never had a Prime Minister till 1996! Rahul Gandhi’s entire family has been fighting for the poor and the oppressed since 1947. Who were the oppressors? The RSS, obviously. Behind every corrupt officer who took bribes, behind every business that was shut down (or was never started at all) due to license-quota-permit raj, behind every person who committed atrocities in the name of caste or religion, there was the secret hand of the RSS. For some reason, from big business houses to zamindars in every village, all ruling class members have been loyal to the RSS for 60 years. The Nehru Gandhi dynasty was a lone voice fighting their collective power.

By 2014, these fantasy stories of RSS power had worn thin. But look at their achievement. The liberal media successfully convinced people for 60 years that Nehru, Indira, Rajiv and Sonia were rebels taking on the RSS establishment. This is how good they are at their job.

Post 2014, the same liberal media has actual bogeymen to work with. There are a couple of newspapers and television channels now that take the BJP’s side. Imagine how much moral panic the liberals can squeeze out now.

That’s why the outrage over “godi media.” Always spreading lies, taking cues from “IT cell” and “Whatsapp University.” You know, like “godi media” said last year that Khalistani elements were spreading their footprint in Punjab. And that they were using Canada as a base. That was all lies, right? You still sure about that?