Here is a fascinating discussion on NPR’s Forum from earlier this year on the subject of mercury and fish:
If you’ve listened to this the whole way through (which you should), I’m curious as to how it will affect your habits, if at all. And why?
Posts Tagged ‘Interventions’
Something Fishy About Mercury
Posted in Causality, Epidemiology, Health, Interventions, Nutrition, Politics, Psychology, Science, tagged Causality, Epidemiology, Health, Interventions, Nutrition, Politics, Psychology, Science on August 10, 2009| 2 Comments »
Name That Financial Debacle!
Posted in Economics, Government, Incentives, Interconnectedness, Interventions, Markets, Non-linearity, tagged Economics, Government, Incentives, Interconnectedness, Interventions, Markets, Non-linearity on August 4, 2009| 4 Comments »
The following quotes are from a book describing a real set of events:
[The incident] is an extraordinary example of what happens when you get… a dozen people with an average IQ of 160… working in a field in which they collectively have 250 years of experience… employing a ton of leverage.
It’s hard to overstate the significance of a [government-led] rescues of a private [corporation]. If a [company], however large was too big to fail, then what large [company] would ever be allowed to collapse? The government risked becoming the margin of safety. No serious consequences had come about in the end from the… near-meltdown.
Was the incident:
a) The savings and loan scandal
b) The collapse of Enron
c) The sub-prime mortgage meltdown
d) none of the above
First correct answer gets to invest in an exciting new bridge project I’m involved with in New York!
Should We Tax Poor Nutrition?
Posted in Government, Health, Incentives, Interventions, Nutrition, Obesity, tagged Government, Health, Incentives, Interventions, Nutrition, Obesity on July 28, 2009| 21 Comments »
I just tweeted on a subject that I suspected would cause a stir, and so it has, I’m moving it here:
RafeFurst: I strongly support a soda tax! RT @mobilediner: check it out: a Soda Tax? http://amplify.com/u/dvl
coelhobruno: @RafeFurst what about diet soda? Would it be exempt?
RafeFurst: @coelhobruno no diet soda would not b exempt from tax. Tax should be inversely proportional to total nutritional content. Spinach = no tax
Lauren Baldwin: I do as well … and while they are at it they should tax fake fruit juice too.
Kevin Dick: I think this would be an interesting experiment. I predict a tax does not cause any measurable decrease in BMI.
Kim Scheinberg: New York has had this under consideration for a year. Perhaps surprisingly, I’m against it. In theory, people will drink less soda. In reality, it will just be another tax on people who can afford it the least.
Leaving aside the “rights” issues and just focusing on effectiveness, I guess we can look towards cigarette taxes and gasoline taxes and see what the lessons are. What do these forebears suggest?
As an FYI, there is supposedly a new total nutritional score (zero to 100) that is to be mandated on all food in the U.S. by the FDA. Can anyone corroborate this and its current status? Presumably this would be the number to base a tax on.
Violence on the Decline
Posted in Culture, Epidemiology, Happiness, Interventions, Invisible Etiology, Self-Fullfilling Prophecy, Society, tagged Culture, Epidemiology, Happiness, Interventions, Invisible Etiology, Self-Fulfilling Prophecy, Society on July 25, 2009| 1 Comment »
From Monday’s Washington Post:
The District, New York and Los Angeles are on track for fewer killings this year than in any other year in at least four decades. Boston, San Francisco, Minneapolis and other cities are also seeing notable reductions in homicides.
Full article is here, in which more sensible police approaches are given credit for the decline.
Robin Hood Foreclosure Fund, part II
Posted in Economics, Interventions, Philanthropy, tagged Economics, Interventions, Philanthropy on June 20, 2009| 2 Comments »
Pursuant to my earlier post, it turns out there already is such a group:
Thanks to Marissa Chien who found it and pointed me to it. She also suggests that people who are having trouble with their mortgage should seek advise from HUD. Information is power and many people (I’ve learned) are irrationally scared of approaching their lender and negotiating. More and more lenders are willing to cut deals to avoid foreclosures.
Is Hunger Really a Problem in U.S.?
Posted in Health, Homelessness, Interventions, Nutrition, Obesity, Philanthropy, Poverty, Scarcity / Abundance, tagged Health, Homelessness, Interventions, Nutrition, Obesity, Philanthropy, Poverty, Scarcity / Abundance on June 18, 2009| 5 Comments »
Given everything I hear about obesity stats in the U.S. and malnutrition in the developing world, the last thing I was expecting to find in my inbox this morning was a plea to join a Facebook cause to help end hunger in America. Really?
I’m usually not skeptical in this way, and I’m loath to focus on the negative when it comes to philanthropy, but I can’t get these thoughts out of my head and I’d like some perspective from those who are better informed about the alleged U.S. hunger crisis. In the mean time, here’s my food for thought:
Paying Women to Not Get Pregnant
Posted in Government, Incentives, Interventions, Poverty, Psychology, Society, tagged Government, Incentives, Interventions, Poverty, Psychology, Society on June 9, 2009| 9 Comments »
What’s fascinating to me about this is not that it works so well and or that there might actually be support in the Obama administration for doing it on a national scale, but rather that there has not been a backlash against it yet. What are the odds that something like this will actually get implemented? Is it actually a good thing?
hat tip: Annie Duke’s mom
Methuselah Foundation
Posted in Health, Interventions, Medical Breakthroughs, Singularity, Technology, tagged Health, Interventions, Medical Breakthroughs, Singularity, Technology on May 16, 2009| Leave a Comment »
If, like Aubrey de Grey, you believe that immortality is achievable, or you are just intrigued by the possibility, you should check out this news story on The Methuselah Foundation.
Stability Through Instability
Posted in Agency, Causality, Economics, Government, Interventions, Limits of Knowledge, Markets, tagged Agency, Causality, Economics, Government, Interventions, Limits of Knowledge, Markets on April 26, 2009| 3 Comments »
A friend pointed me to a doubly prescient talk given by George Soros in 1994 about his theory of reflexivity in the markets. Essentially Soros notes that there’s feedback in terms of what agents believe about the market and how the market behaves. Not groundbreaking, but he takes this thinking to some logical conclusions which are in contrast to standard economic theory:
Alfred Hubler on Stabilizing CAS
Posted in Alternative Institutions, Autocatalysis, Causality, Economics, Interconnectedness, Interventions, Management, Markets, Networks, Non-linearity, Politics, Self-Fullfilling Prophecy, Socio-technical systems, Stability, tagged Alternative Institutions, Autocatalysis, Causality, Economics, Interconnectedness, Interventions, Management, Markets, Networks, Non-linearity, Politics, Self-Fulfilling Prophecy, Socio-technical systems, Stability on April 23, 2009| 6 Comments »
With his permission, I am posting an email thread between myself and Alfred Hubler. I had contacted him on the recommendation of John Miller when Kevin and I were posting on the possibility of dampening boom-bust cycles in the financial markets through policy or other mechanisms. Here’s what Hubler had to say:
Crowdsourcing Election Verification, part 3
Posted in Crowdsourcing, Government, Interventions, Media, Politics, Voting, tagged Crowdsourcing, Government, Interventions, Media, Politics, Voting on April 22, 2009| 3 Comments »
In part 1 I advocated photographing your completed ballot before submitting it and posting your photograph online. Turns out that if you followed this piece of advice in Missouri, you might be in jail right now. Oops! Sorry :-)
If Rafe Were In Charge: Major Medical Edition
Posted in Alternative Institutions, Cooperation, Economics, Government, Health, Interventions, Society, tagged Alternative Institutions, Cooperation, Economics, Government, Health, Interventions, Society on April 16, 2009| 3 Comments »
Kevin started an interesting discussion that included a thoughtful proposal for the problem of major medical care costs risk mitigation. You should read that here before reading my proposal below.
Part 1: Major Medical Annuities. Federally mandated/funded (similar to SSI/Medicare), with a specific initial lifetime value that is the same for everyone. The concept is that you pick a number slightly bigger than the average expected lifetime major medical bill and set aside that pot of money for everyone individually. At some point (e.g. 65) you can choose to start drawing down from your pot as taxable income. Prior to then, the only way the fund can be used is for major medical expenses not covered by other insurance you may have. Such payments go directly to providers and are tax-exempt. When you die, any leftover amount gets transferred to the MMA accounts of your heirs (per your desired breakdown, or according to probate law in the absence of a will).
Microcosmos
Posted in Interventions, Visualization, tagged Interventions, Visualization on April 11, 2009| Leave a Comment »
There’s a cool little coffee table book called Microcosmos that features super magnified images of (mostly) living creatures. Here’s a sample:
Macrophage (yellow) chomping on e. coli (red) [3000x magnification]
Too Big to Fail = Too Big to Exist?
Posted in Economics, Government, Interconnectedness, Interventions, Markets, Networks, tagged Economics, Government, Interconnectedness, Interventions, Markets, Networks on April 6, 2009| 4 Comments »
I asked this question on twitter/facebook and got a lot of variants of “I agree” and only one person who stated disagreement (but provided inadequate reason, IMO). Jay Greenspan put it this way:
Interesting question this morning, and something I’ve been wondering about. I’ve yet to see anyone really argue that state of non-regulation we’ve been in for the last years has been a good idea. I’ve heard some thoughtful conservatives talk about how their views have changed radically — coming to understand that forceful regulation is absolutely necessary.
The super-conservatives I’ve seen are talking more about taxes, avoiding the subject. I’d be very interested to see a credible argument for a hands-off approach.
So how about it, anyone game to take up a considered argument for not mandating that companies who get big enough to affect the global economy should be broken up or otherwise handicapped?
Executive Compensation
Posted in Alternative Institutions, Economics, Incentives, Interventions, Management, tagged Alternative Institutions, Economics, Incentives, Interventions, Management on April 4, 2009| 38 Comments »
The main problem with executive pay is not that they are compensated too highly, but that there’s not enough pain for them personally when they do a bad job. I propose that the top three executives in all public companies be required to invest 100% of their salary in their own stock each year, with a decaying lockup period before they can sell.
3 Interesting Articles on The Economy
Posted in Cognition, Economics, Government, Interventions, Markets, tagged Cognition, Economics, Government, Interventions, Markets on April 2, 2009| 1 Comment »
The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. One of the most alarming, says a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is that the finance industry has effectively captured our government—a state of affairs that more typically describes emerging markets, and is at the center of many emerging-market crises. If the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. And if we are to prevent a true depression, we’re running out of time.
Decrease Red Meat Consumption
Posted in Cancer, Health, Interventions, Media, Nutrition, tagged Cancer, Health, Interventions, Media, Nutrition on March 24, 2009| 2 Comments »
This is not news, health professionals of all sorts have been saying this for a long time. ABC News features a recent study supporting this.
A relevant footnote near the end of the article though:
Placebos Work Even If You Don’t Believe in Them
Posted in Causality, Health, Interventions, Medical Breakthroughs, Psychology, Self-Fullfilling Prophecy, tagged Causality, Health, Interventions, Medical Breakthroughs, Psychology, Self-Fulfilling Prophecy on March 16, 2009| 1 Comment »
This is one of the most important medical “breakthroughs” in recent memory. You should read the entire article, because it makes some subtle points, but the upshot is that placebo has (at least) two components, one that is triggered by conscious belief in a putative cure, and another that is triggered by unconscious, Pavlovian association.
Radical Transparency
Posted in Common Knowledge, Crowdsourcing, Economics, Incentives, Interventions, Markets, Mutual Knowledge, Stability, tagged Common Knowledge, Crowdsourcing, Economics, Incentives, Interventions, Markets, Mutual Knowledge, Stability on March 15, 2009| 2 Comments »
In a March 2009 Wired article, Daniel Roth calls for radical transparency in financial reporting as the path to recovery and a more secure financial system. He argues that the reporting requirements today allow companies to obscure what’s going on and that the way to fix things is as follows. Embrace a markup language with which bite-sized chunks of standardly defined pieces of financial data are thrown out to the world so that users can crowdsource the true picture of a company’s financial health.
Preventing Cancer Through DNA Replacement?
Posted in Cancer, Causality, Health, Interventions, Medical Breakthroughs, tagged Cancer, Causality, Health, Interventions, Medical Breakthroughs on March 2, 2009| 4 Comments »
On the Cancer Complexity forum, I pose a question: if we could somehow replace all the damaged DNA in each of the cells of your body with an undamaged copy on a continuous basis, would that prevent you from getting cancer?
What do you think?
Complexity Economics
Posted in Alternative Institutions, Economics, Incentives, Interventions, Markets, Memes, tagged Alternative Institutions, Economics, Incentives, Interventions, Markets, Memes on February 28, 2009| 7 Comments »
In Chasing the Dragon, I wondered aloud whether we could dampen boom-bust cycles in the financial system with an economic equivalent of a controlled burn. Kevin suggested that “generic countercyclical policies” might work. Underlying both mine and Kevin’s thinking is the idea that you can possibly do better (for the world as a whole) by (a) understanding the entire economic system better and (b) enacting policies which are in line with that understanding. In contrast to these assumptions are a point of view articulated by one of the readers on a different thread:
Chasing the Dragon
Posted in Alternative Institutions, Economics, Incentives, Interventions, Markets, Memes, Models, Non-linearity, Psychology, Stability, tagged Alternative Institutions, Economics, Incentives, Interventions, Markets, Memes, Models, Non-linearity, Psychology, Stability on February 24, 2009| 7 Comments »
Kevin just posted about a great article by Felix Salmon in Wired. I underlined three quotes in my reading of it:
- “Correlation trading has spread through the psyche of the financial markets like a highly infectious thought virus.” (Tavakoli)
- “…the real danger was created not because any given trader adopted it but because every trader did. In financial markets, everybody doing the same thing is the classic recipe for a bubble and inevitable bust.” (Salmon)
- “Co-association between securities is not measurable using correlation…. Anything that relies on correlation is charlatanism.” (Taleb)
Health and Fitness Q&A with Kevin
Posted in Health, Interventions, Science, tagged Health, Interventions, Science on February 18, 2009| 8 Comments »
Whenever I have a question about health matters that is too complex for an MD or academic researcher to get right, I ask Kevin. Nobody I know has a better combination of broad-based current knowledge of the primary literature, plus a whole-system view and understanding of compex dynamics, plus the practical will and experience in living by (and updating) his conclusions.
Here are some questions I had for Kevin recently and his answers.
Rafe: Do the BPA results (such as they are) cause you concern? Do you still use your Nalgene bottle? Would you let your infant or child drink from a plastic bottle or sippy-cup?
Coffee Linked to Lower Dementia Risk
Posted in Causality, Interventions, Medical Breakthroughs, Nutrition, tagged Causality, Interventions, Medical Breakthroughs, Nutrition on January 25, 2009| 5 Comments »
The NY Times reports.
Here’s my theory: someone who drinks more than three cups of coffee a day can’t possibly sit still and actually gets their ass off the couch and does shit, thereby stimulating the body and brain, a known and powerful way to reduce dementia risk.
hat tip: Daniel Horowitz
Global Economic Constitution?
Posted in Alternative Institutions, Government, Interventions, Memes, Pop!Tech, Scarcity / Abundance, Superorganism, tagged Alternative Institutions, Government, Interventions, Memes, Pop!Tech, Scarcity / Abundance, Superorganism on January 9, 2009| Leave a Comment »
Homelessness
Posted in Culture, Health, Homelessness, Interventions, Scarcity / Abundance, Society, tagged Culture, Health, Homelessness, Interventions, Scarcity / Abundance, Society on December 25, 2008| 1 Comment »
Greening the Bailout
Posted in Alternative Institutions, Climate, Government, Interventions, Pop!Tech, Scarcity / Abundance, tagged Alternative Institutions, Climate, Government, Interventions, Pop!Tech, Scarcity / Abundance on December 21, 2008| Leave a Comment »
Hina Chaudhry
Posted in Genetics, Health, Interventions, Medical Breakthroughs, tagged Genetics, Health, Interventions, Medical Breakthroughs on December 3, 2008| Leave a Comment »
Like does this mean you can cure heart disease?
She’s hesitant. Nobody wants to say they can defeat the industrialized world’s number one killer. Nobody wants to make promises about life, or quantify salvation. But she fervently believes she’s got a shot.
This is what the 2008 Genius edition of Esquire Magazine had to say about Hina Chaudhry. Her approach is to switch back on the mechanism that causes cells to divide in the heart, which doesn’t normally happen after birth in any mammal. This is not a stem-cell approach, despite what it might sound like.
Looking on the web there appears to be very little written about this work, so I’m wondering how Esquire found her or chose her work to highlight. I’d like to learn more if anyone has information they’d like to share.
What Stops Terrorism
Posted in Causality, Government, Interventions, Invisible Etiology, Terrorism, tagged Causality, Government, Interventions, Invisible Etiology, Terrorism on December 2, 2008| Leave a Comment »
40% percent of terrorist groups are defeated by police and intelligence operations. 43% percent end because they give up violence and join the political process. Only 7% end as a result of military force.
This according to the research of Seth Jones, as reported in the 2008 Genius edition of Esquire Magazine.
Incidentalomas
Posted in Cancer, Causality, Interventions, Invisible Etiology, Medical Breakthroughs, Models, tagged Cancer, Causality, Interventions, Invisible Etiology, Medical Breakthroughs, Models on November 30, 2008| 1 Comment »
An incidentaloma according to wikipedia is “a tumor (-oma) found by coincidence (incidental) without clinical symptoms or suspicion.” The provocative NY Times article below suggests that indolent tumors (i.e. ones that do not need treatment) may come and go as a normal part of life. With better detection tools, we are finding more and more of these. However our protocol for dealing with tumors is based on a time when tumors found were almost always non-incidental, non-indolent and requiring of positive action (like surgery). According to Dr. Donald A. Berry, chairman of the department of biostatistics at M. D. Anderson Cancer Center:
It’s possible that we all have cells that are cancerous and that grow a bit before being dumped by the body. ‘Hell bent for leather’ early detection research will lead to finding some of them. What will be the consequence? Prophylactic removal of organs in the masses? It’s really scary.
Obama’s Must Do List
Posted in Government, Interventions, Society, tagged Government, Interventions, Society on November 22, 2008| Leave a Comment »
Everybody has their wishlist and “must do” lists for the new President. Back in March of 2007, the NY Times published this Op Ed piece that I personally believe is critical and outlines what needs to be done above all else. The article goes into much more detail about specifics, but the overall thrust is threefold:
- Restore Habeas Corpus
- Stop Illegal Spying
- Ban Torture, Really
I’m curious to know though, what do you think the priorities should be for Obama’s presidency?
The Conflict Between Complex Systems and Reductionism
Posted in Autism, Cancer, Causality, Cooperation, Emergence, Epistemology, Evolution, Interventions, Invisible Etiology, Levels, Medical Breakthroughs, Models, Non-linearity, Science, tagged Autism, Cancer, Causality, Cooperation, Emergence, Epistemology, Evolution, Interventions, Invisible Etiology, Levels, Medical Breakthroughs, Models, Non-linearity, Science on November 20, 2008| Leave a Comment »
The following is a recent paper by Henry Heng published in JAMA. I’ve linked concepts mentioned in the paper to corresponding explications from this blog.
JAMA. 2008;300(13):1580-1581.
The Conflict Between Complex Systems and Reductionism
Henry H. Q. Heng, PhD
Author Affiliations: Center for Molecular Medicine and Genetics, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, Michigan.
Descartes’ reductionist principle has had a profound influence on medicine. Similar to repairing a clock in which each broken part is fixed in order, investigators have attempted to discover causal relationships among key components of an individual and to treat those components accordingly. (more…)
Change.gov
Posted in Alternative Institutions, Climate, Crowdsourcing, Government, Interventions, tagged Alternative Institutions, Climate, Crowdsourcing, Government, Interventions on November 20, 2008| Leave a Comment »
Okay, Kev, here’s your chance on affecting climate policy, go crazy!
From the Heart
Posted in Interventions, Medical Breakthroughs, tagged Interventions, Medical Breakthroughs on November 19, 2008| 1 Comment »
I have a bicuspid aortic valve, a congenital condition which exists in up to 2% of the general population:
Invisible Etiology
Posted in Causality, Epidemiology, Infection, Interventions, Invisible Etiology, Memes, Pop!Tech, Science, tagged Causality, Epidemiology, Infection, Interventions, Invisible Etiology, Memes, Pop!Tech, Science on November 4, 2008| 3 Comments »
One of the most poignant moments of this year’s Pop!Tech for me — which, BTW had many — was Gary Slutkin’s talk on the idea of violence being a virus. You may have heard about his work in stopping violence in Chicago in a NY Times Magazine cover article earlier this year. The premise is simple: if you throw out what you think you know about violence and just look at the etiology of how it manifests in the world, you find incredible similarities to the etiology of microbial viruses. This includes not only how it spreads from person to person, but also the larger epidemiological patterns, and importantly, how it can be stopped via interventions which logically follow from the hypothesis that violence is a virus. Not that violence is caused by those invisible critters we call viruses, but rather that violence itself is a virus.
Want to Influence Financial Crisis Policy Debate?
Posted in Alternative Institutions, Government, Interventions, Markets, Pop!Tech, tagged Alternative Institutions, Government, Interventions, Markets, Pop!Tech on October 29, 2008| Leave a Comment »
One of the talks at Pop!Tech this year sparked intense emotions regardless of whether people agreed with the premise or not:
Vodpod videos no longer available.
To address these intense feelings and the demand for public discussion, a wiki was created, in which you are invited to join the discussion. This forum was designed as “a place for a rich, lively, respectful and facts-based dialog on what’s necessary to address the serious economic challenges confronting America today.” Hope to see you there.
Click here to go to the policy debate.
Band Aids and the Copenhagen Consensus
Posted in Interventions, Poverty, Socio-technical systems, tagged Interventions, Poverty, Socio-technical systems on June 9, 2008| 4 Comments »
I recently alerted Rafe to the latest Copenhagen Consensus, which aims to set priorities for the most cost effective interventions to improve global welfare. Items (1) and (3) were micronutrient supplementation and fortification. Rafe expressed concern that these were a “band aid approach”. After pondering this characterization for a bit, I have some thoughts on when to apply a “band aid approach” and the conditions we should attach to such approaches.
National Popular Vote
Posted in Alternative Institutions, Government, Interventions, Politics, Voting, tagged Alternative Institutions, Government, Interventions, Politics, Voting on June 6, 2008| 7 Comments »
Yesterday I blogged about personal vote verification. At the group level, I recommend supporting the National Popular Vote. While most people (70%) favor a popular vote for president, the U.S. Constitution calls for an electoral college system. The National Popular Vote movement is extremely clever in that it doesn’t require a constitutional change:
Under the U.S. Constitution, the states have exclusive and plenary (complete) power to allocate their electoral votes, and may change their state laws concerning the awarding of their electoral votes at any time. Under the National Popular Vote bill, all of the state’s electoral votes would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538).
Water: The First Priority
Posted in Climate, Interventions, Poverty, tagged Climate, Interventions, Poverty on May 31, 2008| 6 Comments »
As I mentioned in my introductory post, I hope you’ll pay particular attention to interventions where Rafe and I agree something should be done. Whenever such agreement emerges, we plan on letting you know. Hopefully, we’ll inspire you to support them as well. As it happens, we have just identified such an intervention, WaterAid. I stumbled across this worthy cause while researching a slightly different problem. What follows is the long version of the story. Please bear with me; it sets the stage for future posts.
Emergent Tweets- An error has occurred; the feed is probably down. Try again later.
Top Posts
Recent Comments
Brad on Equity Micro-Investing rafefurst on Equity Micro-Investing Alex Golubev on Is Money an Emergent Phen… Alex Golubev on Is Money an Emergent Phen… kevindick on Is Money an Emergent Phen… Alex Golubev on Is Money an Emergent Phen… George on Is Money an Emergent Phen… kevindick on Is Money an Emergent Phen… Brad on Equity Micro-Investing Alex Golubev on Is Money an Emergent Phen… Archives
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
The Emergent Fool 
