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INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
The conflict in the Middle East is testing the resilience of the global economy
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Global growth was steady heading into 2026, but the energy supply shock following the onset of the conflict in the Middle East is expected to significantly weigh on global growth while putting new upward pressure on inflation.
Report
26 March 2026
Digital report
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Global growth remained resilient prior to the conflict, but rising energy prices and uncertainty now weigh on the outlook
Global GDP growth is projected to remain broadly stable at 2.9% in 2026 before edging up to 3.0% in 2027, sustained by robust technology-related investment and gradually lower effective tariff rates. However, the evolving conflict in the Middle East weighs on growth and generates significant uncertainty around global demand. These projections assume that the current energy market disruption is temporary, with prices easing from mid 2026 onward.
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