Ildemaro Vargas of the Diamondbacks led off Sunday afternoon against the Padres and collect three hits, a double, triple, and home run to raise his hit streak to twenty games. His three for five gives him 29 hits in the streak, 14 of them for extra bases, including two triples. He raised his BA to .367. That should lead the league in BA, but his about three PA short of qualifying.
The Diamondbacks overcame a 6-0 Padres lead to take the game 12-7.
Justin Wrobleski of the Dodgers pitched six shutout innings against the the Cubs to lower his ERA to 1.50 and move into the NL lead in that category. He was not in the top five this morning, because he needed 27 innings to qualify and he only pitched 24 innings. With 30 innings under his belt, Wrobleski won’t be in the lead the next time he pitches. He could really use a seven inning start to build up his innings and stay on top.
The Pirates go for a sweep of the Brewers as Carmen Mlodzinski takes on Kyle Harrison. Pirates starters allowed just eight home runs in 560 batters faced, 1.43% of batters faced. That lowest of any group of starters in the majors this season. Mlodzinski has yet to allow a homer, having faced 108 batters. Harrison keeps opponents power at bay as well, with a .373 slugging percentage allowed this season.
In Los Angeles, Shota Imanaga faces the Dodgers and Justin Wrobleski. Imanaga upped his strikeout game this season while keeping his walk rate low. Wrobleski pretty much eliminated his cut and sinking fastball, going with four seamers when he throws fast ball. So far it worked. Batters are putting the ball in play against him with little success as he struck out just nine batters in 24 innings, but allowed just 16 hits. He has yet to see a ball leave the park.
Enjoy!
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
Clement drew just one walk this season without getting hit by a pitch in 109 PA. He also struck out eight times. With a .350 BABIP, that gives him a .321 hit average, which gets regressed to .272 (regression is based on 200 in season PA). The league hit average is now up to .214, but combine that with Cecconi having an above average 2026 hit average allowed, and Clement looks really good for this game.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
Clement finishes at the top of both lists, and he is currently working on a nine-game hit streak.
One of the things I hoped the NN would do is find different players every day who would be at the top of the list. That hasn’t always happened, as in the last few years the qualities that put someone at the top of the list (lots of balls in play, high BABIP) were rare. With Luis Arraez coming back to the pack, I’ve only seen one repeat so far, as Chandler Simpson came out on top on April 14th and 15th. We’ll see how long this continues, or if some player continues to be hot for a long time and dominates.
Yandy Diaz appears to be the consensus double down choice, but it’s a apart from Clement, the two systems see the order very differently.
Note that the Mets and Rockies play a double header today, so be careful which pitching matchup you choose.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Saturday’s games did not change the order of the top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Aaron Judge of the Yankees sent 0 for 3 with two walks, giving him a .229 BA but a .373 OBP. That kept him in first place. His opponent in the game, second place Yordan Alvarez of the Astros posted a one for four. The Yankees took the game 8-3.
Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero of the Rays remain third and fourth respectively. Diaz singled and was hit by a pitch in four PA, while Caminero picked up a single in first four turns at the plate. The Rays beat the Twins 6-1.
Jose Ramirez of the Guardians held first place with a double in a 5-3 Blue Jays win.
Sal Stewart of the Reds did a lot of damage in the 9-2 win over the Tigers, producing a game score of 78, the highest of the day. He went three for four with a walk and his ninth home run of the season, driving in five runs. His three-run blast in the first inning sealed the victory for the Reds. Stewart stands as an early MVP candidate with a .303/.398/.626 slash line, and the Reds in first place in the NL Central.
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
The Red Sox fired Alex Cora and most of his staff:
The Red Sox have parted ways with manager Alex Cora, hitting coach Peter Fatse, third-base coach Kyle Hudson, bench coach Rámon Vázquez, assistant hitting coach Dillon Lawson and Major League hitting strategy coach Joe Cronin, the club announced on Saturday.
Game planning and run prevention coach Jason Varitek has been reassigned to a new role within the organization. Details of his reassignment will be announced at a later date.
Chad Tracy will serve as interim manager for the Red Sox. Tracy, 40, has served as manager of Triple-A Worcester since 2022.
MLB.com
Earlier this afternoon I was chatting with a good friend and a great baseball fan about the poor starts by the Mets and the Red Sox. I told him I thought Alex Cora would be gone soon. Turned out I was more right than I imagined.
I don’t know what Cora was doing differently, but it could just be that he didn’t connect with a new group of players. Or it has nothing to do with him, and the team just isn’t as good as the front office thought, and they can’t fire the team. We’ll see how Tracy does. He does have experience with many of the younger players.
The Red Sox beat the Orioles 17-1 Saturday afternoon, tying the Braves for most runs scored in a game this season. That also equals their total from the previous seven games.
Garrett Crochet got back into his groove, throwing six shutout innings. It’s a game the Red Sox needed after a 1-6 week.
The Guardians send Joey Cantillo against the Blue Jays and Kevin Gausman. Since moving to the rotation last July, Cantillo owns a 3.02 ERA in 18 games. His walks are a little high, but he balances that nicely with a high K rate and a low home run rate. Gausman once again shows great control, with just six walks against 35 strikeouts in 28 1/3 innings this season.
The Pirates continue their series in Milwaukee as Mitch Keller faces the Brewers and Jacob Misiorowski. Pirates starters allowed just 0.55 HR per 9 IP this season, and Keller is a big part of that, giving up just one home run in 29 innings. Misiorowski keeps blowing away batters with 42 K in just 26 2/3 innings. Given the opposition line against him stands at .177/.288/.323, his 3.04 ERA seems high. In his games, reliever allowed 10 runs in 17 1/3 innings, so it’s possible they allowed some of his inherited runners to score.
Finally, Zack Wheeler returns to the mound for the Phillies against the Braves and Bryce Elder. Wheeler tries to stop the Phillies ten-game losing streak, which left them in last place in the NL East, 10 1/2 games behind the Braves. Wheeler had a huge lead in the Bill James starting pitcher rankings before his injury. Even with the erosion of his score over time, he still ranks 11th. Elder cut down his home run rate so far this season, helping him to a 1.50 ERA in 30 innings.
Enjoy!
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
Vargas got off to a start that is way above his career averages. With 73 PA, his slash line stands at .357/.375/.671. He draws very few walks, and his strikeout rate is low, which is consistent with his career. What’s different is that his BABIP is up to .357 from a career average of .271. Is it real? Bat tracking indicates he is getting the ideal attack angle more often. Whatever the reason, he is working on an 18-game hit streak, the longest current streak in the majors.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
The NN discounts the long-term poor pitching by Marquez, so the bottom of the lists are very different. The Padres and Diamondbacks face each other in Mexico City, and the altitude there is similar to Denver, so maybe Marquez’s poor pitching history should be taken more seriously. Andujar and Vargas remain at the top, however, and would be the double down choice. Gallen pitches right-handed, however, and Andujar often does not start against right-handed pitchers. Rosario would be the consensus double down pick if Andujar doesn’t start.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
The top two batters in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings went head-to-head in a game that saw the Yankees defeat the Astros 12-4. Aaron Judge of the Yankees remained on top after drawing three walks in five PA to raise his OBP to .372. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros collected two singles in thee at bats to raise his OBP to a Barry Bonds like .471. Note that Ben Rice of the Yankees doubled and homered in the game and now ranks eighth.
A pair of Rays occupy the third and fourth slots. Yandy Diaz went one for four in a 6-2 win over the Twins and sits in third place. Junior Caminero hit two home runs, giving him eight on the season to move up to fourth place. He’s slugging .540.
Jose Ramirez of the Guardians ranks fifth after collecting a single and a walk in an 8-6 win over the Blue Jays.
The best game score of the day came off the bat of Adley Rutschman of the Orioles, an 81. He went three for five with two home runs and six RBI in a 10-3 win over the Red Sox. After two down seasons, Rutschman came roaring back at the start of 2026, now hitting .349/.417/.698. I suspect he won’t end the season anywhere near those numbers as catching takes a toll, but it looks like he’s healthy again, and even returning to his 2023 levels would be a big boost to the Orioles.
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
Paul Skenes celebrates Konnor Griffin‘s 20th birthday by flirting with a perfect game. He retired the first 18 Bewers he faced, striking out seven. Most of the balls in play were on the ground. We will see if the great one adds to his legend tonight.
Griffin celebrated with his first MLB home run. He’s two for three tonight as the Pirates lead the Brewers 4-0 in the top of the seventh inning.
Update: With two out in the seventh, Jake Bauers singles between the second baseman and shortstop. Skenes did look like he was struggling a little more in this inning.
Former Rays pitcher Taj Bradley leads the Twins against current Rays pitcher Drew Rasmussen. Bradley got off to a great start, posting a 1.63 ERA in five starts, and not allowing a home run in 27 2/3 innings. His career HR/9 IP stands at 1.39. Rasmussen allowed seven runs in 19 2/3 innings, all seven driven in by the four home runs he allowed.
Paul Skenes of the Pirates squares off against Brand Woodruff of the Brewers. Both pitchers suffered one bad outing that lifted their ERAs over three. Otherwise, the pair allowed two runs or less in the other seven starts.
Enjoy!
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
The Mets look like they are in for another good offensive day as Lorenzen allowed 40 hits in 21 2/3 innings this season.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
Alvarez owns a nine-game hit streak, Smith is at eight. Note that Bichette’s high rank here is mostly based on his three-year, .263 hit average. His regressed hit average for 2026 stands at .219. The league hit average rose to .212, so everyone is getting a little boost from that.
Edwards stands as the consensus top pick with Bichette the double down choice. Everything is under the lights today, so you have time to decide on your pick.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Aaron Judge of the Yankees singled and walked in a 4-2 win over the Red Sox to stay atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He did strike out three times as the Bombers went down on Ks 17 times. The Red Sox walked once in the game and struck out five times, but all the balls in play only produced four hits.
The schedule gave Yordan Alvarez and the Astros the day off, and he remains in second place. Yandy Diaz of the Rays in third place and Jose Ramirez of the Guardians in fifth place also enjoyed a day off.
Nico Hoerner of the Cubs drew a walk in five plate appearances in an 8-7, 10 inning win over the Phillies. He ranks fourth, and even after a bad day at the plate, he OBP stands at .381.
Mickey Moniak of the Rockies posted the highest game score of the day, an 83. He went four for five with two home runs, both solo shots, in a 10-8 Padres win. Thirteen of his 22 hits this season went for extra bases as Colorado once again is helping him hit well above his career averages. His peak ages coinciding with employment by the Rockies means the middle of this career is going to look like a very high, steep, mountian.
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
Two of the three wins so far this Thursday came on walk off hits Spencer Torkelson waited until the bottom of the ninth to get a hit, and his solo home run gave the Tigers a 5-4 over the Brewers.
In Chicago, the Cubs blew a 6-2 lead, and wound up tied with the Phillies at seven in extra innings. Dansby Swanson came up in the bottom of the tenth with the bases loaded, and his second single of the day sealed an 8-7 victory for the Cubs. Chicago wins their ninth game in a row. They’ve scored 66 runs in that stretch.
Cristopher Sanchez and Edward Cabrera battle as the Phillies phace the Cubs in Chicago. Sanchez lived up to his contract so far, posting a 1.59 ERA in 28 1/3 innings, striking out 39 and walking just eight. While Cabrera posts okay K and BB numbers, he’s yet to allow a home run in 2026. For his career, his HR per 9 IP stands at 1.17.
The White Sox at the Diamondbacks offers a good pitching matchup between Davis Martin and Michael Soroka. All eyes will be on Munetaka Murakami, who homered in five straight games. He is off to a great home run start to his MLB career, and with homers in five straight games he tied the White Sox record (held by many) and the Japan born player record, held by Shohei Ohtani.
Finally, Bubba Chandler of Pirates takes on Jacob deGrom of the Rangers. Chandler gives up lots of walks but few hits, leading to a 3.15 ERA so far in 2026. deGrom is back to his dominant form, with 25 K in 19 2/3 innings. Even when batters put the ball in play, the BABIP against him is just .273.
Enjoy!
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
Thursday features just nine game, many of the them in the afternoon, so get your picks in early. The Padres faces a right-handed pitcher in Feltner, so Andujar may not get the start. It looks like a great matchup for him. Pages doesn’t have much of a history against Webb, but Freeman hits him well, as does Shohei Ohtani.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
It’s a nearly identical list. The Padres, Dodgers, and Cubs all play this afternoon, so you should know who is and isn’t starting by then. Some combination of Andujar, Pages, and Hoerner works as a double down.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Aaron Judge of the Yankees stayed atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, but Yordan Alvarez of the Astros continued to move up fast and is right on Judge’s heels. Judge posted a one for two with two walks in a 4-1 win over the Red Sox. Alvarez went three for four with a home run, driving in the only two runs of the game in a win over the Guardians. The two are separated by about four points, and Alvarez already owns eleven home runs on the season.
In the Houston-Cleveland game, opponent Jose Ramirez went one for four to rank fifth.
Nico Hoerner of the Cubs singled in five trips in a 7-2 win over the Phillies. Yandy Diaz of the Rays went three for four in a 6-1 win over the Reds, and he sits in fourth place.
Nolan Arenado of the Diamondbacks posted the best game score of the day, an 83. He went four for four with a walk and a home run in an 11-7 win over the White Sox. Arenado needed the on base boost, as the game raised his OBP to just .286.
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
Mike Trout continues to perform impressively in 2026. He homered and drew two walks while striking out once. In 25 games he walked 25 times, and struck out 23 times. In only one season did he collect more walks than strikeouts. In 2017 he played 114 games, walking 94 times and striking out 90. It was a .306/.442/.629 campaign for Trout that season.
This year he is hitting .239/.417/.557. The hits are harder to come by, but he’s still conserving outs with all the walks, and his power is dangerous enough that pitchers are still afraid to go after him. He’s made an adjustment in his declining years, using experience to get on base while he concentrates his hits in the power category.
The Angels beat the Blue Jays 7-3.
Chad Patrick faces Casey Mize as the Brewers visit the Tigers. Patrick pitched 19 innings so far, allowing just two runs. He struck out nine and walked seven, but so far his poor rates in those two categories get covered by the opposition going one for eight with runners in scoring position. Mize walked seven in 22 innings, but also struck out 25, helping him to a 2.78 ERA.
Max Fried and Rangers Suarez battle at Fenway in game two of the Yankees at the Red Sox. Fried kept his home runs per 9 IP below one in each of the previous six seasons, and he allowed just one dinger in 33 1/3 innings this year. Suarez gets out of trouble with double plays, having induced three of them in nine opportunities this season.
Finally, the White Sox send Anthony Kay against the Diamondbacks and Eduardo Rodriguez. Kay no longer lives up to his last name, with just 6.23 K per 9 IP this season versus 8.77 for his career. Despite the low K rate, he does limit hits. He allowed 13 hits in 17 1/3 innings this season. Rodriguez managed to carry his great WBC into the regular season, coming into the game with a 1.96 ERA. He’s using his defense. With a low K rate, batters only manage a .239 BABIP against him.
Enjoy!
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
The top batters own high projected hit averages today. Littell owns the triple whammy of a low K rate, a high home run rate, and a opposition BABIP of .323. He allowed seven home runs and struck out 14, making his opposition batting average on balls not in play .333. It looks like a good day for the Braves.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
Andujar, playing at Coors, comes out with a very high probability for this season. Sugano pitches from the right side, so Andujar may not start, however, Sugano allows a lot of balls in play, so he plays to Andujar’s strengths. The problem is that the game is late, so if Andujar doesn’t start, it’s tough to get a good replacement.
Baldwin and Andujar tie for the consensus top pick. Of course, you could start with Witt and get the pick out of the way early. 🙂
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Yordan Alvarez of the Astros moved back into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He posted a two for five with a double and three RBI to claim the fifth slot, and he is now slugging the high flying .747. That wasn’t enough, however, as the Guardians took the game 8-5. Jose Ramirez took part in the win. He posted a one for three with two walks to rank fourth.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays ranks third after he collected a single and a walk in a 4-2 win over the Angels. Nico Hoerner of the Cubs singled and homered in five trips to the plate in a 7-4 win over the Phillies to rank second. Aaron Judge of the Yankees singled and drew two walks against the Red Sox. New York did not need much offense as they took the game 4-0. Judged remained in first place.
The best game score of the day came off the bat of Elly De La Cruz of the Reds, a 77. He went three for six with his eighth home run of the season in a 12-6 win at Tampa Bay. The Reds combined for five home runs. Cruz appears to have taken the next step in his development as a hitter. He upped his OBP just a bit, but at seasonal age 24 he turned on the power. That will turn him into an MVP candidate. He currently ranks 36th.
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
MLB decided to replace the All-Star celebrity softball game with MLBx. Here is a good description of how the game is played. It’s three on three, with fair territory only 45 degrees wide instead of 90 degrees. Batters get points for home runs and hitting targets, fielders for making catches. Each team as a batting practice pitcher.
It’s a batting practice game with defense, and forcing hitters to go up the middle. It sounds a lot better than the celebrity softball game.
When I was young, we played three on three with imaginary runners and going to the opposite field counting as an out. No one wearing i in this game, however.
Cubs manager Craig Counsell makes a good point about the rule that doesn’t count two way players as a pitcher for roster limits:
Major league teams are allowed to have a maximum of 13 pitchers on their active 26-man roster from Opening Day through Aug. 31. From Sept. 1 through the end of the season, the roster limits increase to 14 pitchers and 28 active players.
But Ohtani is designated as a two-way player, which means he doesn’t count as a pitcher. So, the reigning World Series champions have 14 pitchers on their active roster.
…
“It’s a rule to help offense, I think, more than anything, if you ask me,” Counsell said. “And then there’s one team that’s allowed to carry basically one of both, and that he gets special consideration. Which is probably the most bizarre rule. … For one team.
ESPN.com
The answer to the question, “Is a two way player a pitcher?” should be yes. The main thing about a two-way player is that you can bring him in as a reliever at any time. Managers are no longer allowed to use position players as pitchers unless they are in a blow out. Shohei Ohtani, however, is every bit as much a pitcher as a designated hitter. He is a member of the rotation. The advantage shouldn’t be that you carry an extra pitcher, but you can carry 13 pitchers while still having an extra bat. I’m on Counsell’s side here.
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
The looks like a pretty good day for the Marlins as May of the Cardinals owns a low K rate, a low walk rate, and a .410 opposition BABIP this season.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
Edwards owns a career .355 BABIP, and strikes out at a relatively low rate. His K rate stands at 15% for his career. This year it’s down to 12.2% (the same as his walk rate), and his BABIP is up .389. Those numbers make him a good beat the streak pick most days. Jacob Wilson comes in as the consensus double down choice. Wilson puts a lot of balls in play, but without the extremely high BABIP.
The aptly names James Outman owns a probability of getting a hit today of .480, the lowest in the majors.
In the real world, Ildemaro Vargas and Jordan Walker both own 15-game hit streaks. Vargas’s probability of a hit today stands at .668, while Walker is at .632. Both are off to season starts well outside of their career norms. Walker is at least young, and still developing as a hitter.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
