I am getting questions and seeing too many bad takes on nuclear proliferation in the Trump administration. I advise everyone to sit down quietly. Nothing is going to happen quickly, and probably a lot less than you are dooming about. I’m also writing because it’s something I think I’ve got a pretty good idea of how it works, rather than imagining the worst.

A broad understanding of the value of having nuclear weapons seems to go something like this:

• We’re going to invade you
• Haha no, we’ve got a nuclear weapon (or maybe more)
• Oh, sorry sir, we’ll invade someone else.

The way deterrence works (which is what is being discussed) is for one party to hold at risk something the other party values. The United States and the Soviet Union, after a great deal of back and forth, up and down, during the 1950s, came to a point where each had enough nuclear weapons to survive a first strike by the other and return a punishing blow. That point was the first that was at all stable, and it’s not great. We live with it today.

I hate this.

Something that isn’t much talked about is the opportunity cost of electing Donald Trump. There are plenty of things to deal with more immediately, like the prospect of of mass deportations. I’m going to talk about what we can’t do because we will be dealing with the attempt at mass deportations and whatever else bubbles to the top of Trump’s mind and the agendas of his court.

In particular, I’ll focus on what I had planned to do. Maybe I can salvage something.

The problem where the opportunity cost is most obvious is global warming. Not only will actions fail to be taken, but there may be active reversal of what’s been done. Some of that has to do with markets, which will be less easy to stop, although a 60% tariff on Chinese goods might even mess with that.