Investigating the trajectory of AI for the benefit of society.

Model capabilities

14ECI/year

The ECI frontier has advanced by 14 points per year since the introduction of reasoning models.

Model performance
90% CI+12 to +17 ECI

New compute growth

2.5×/year
9months
0.40OOM/year

The aggregate computing power of AI chips sold each quarter is growing at a rate of 2.5×/year.

The aggregate computing power of AI chips sold each quarter is doubling every 9 months.

The aggregate computing power of AI chips sold each quarter is growing by 0.40 OOMs per year.

AI companies
90% CI2.3× to 2.7×8 to 10 months0.36 to 0.43 OOM

Training compute

5×/year
5.2months
0.7OOM/year

Training compute for frontier language models has been growing at 5× per year since 2020.

Training compute for frontier language models has been doubling every 5.2 months since 2020.

Training compute for frontier language models has been growing at 0.7 OOMs per year since 2020.

Training runs
90% CI4× to 6×4.6 to 6.0 months0.6 to 0.8 OOM

Build time

2.1years

Gigawatt-scale data centers can be built in about 2 years.

Data centers
90% CI1 to 3.6 years

Largest AI data center

1,100,000H100e

The largest known AI data center has a computing capacity equivalent to 1.1 million NVIDIA H100 chips.

Data centers

Chip performance per dollar

1.49×/year
1.7years
0.17OOM/year

AI chip performance per dollar has grown by 49% per year since 2023.

AI chip performance per dollar has doubled every 1.7 years since 2023.

AI chip performance per dollar has grown by 0.17 OOMs per year since 2023.

Hardware
90% CI1.36× to 1.66×1.4 to 2.3 years0.13 to 0.22 OOM
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AI data centers
Data
Updated Nov. 5, 2026
AI data centers

Open database of AI data centers using satellite and permit data to show AI compute, power use, and construction timelines.

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Feb. 4, 2026
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FrontierMath
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Capabilities & benchmarking
Data
Updated Nov. 5, 2026
Capabilities & benchmarking

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Broadcom TPU compute shipments doubled from Q2 to Q3 2026, reaching 2 million H100-equivalents
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LLM use is acknowledged almost as often as specialized AI tools in biology preprints
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AI can turn security fixes into working exploits before users receive an update
AI can turn security fixes into working exploits before users receive an update
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New global AI computing capacity is doubling every 9 months
New global AI computing capacity is doubling every 9 months

Snapshots from our databases

New global AI computing capacity is doubling every 9 months

New global AI computing capacity is doubling every 9 months

Quarterly additions of computing capacity have grown about 2.5× per year since 2024. That’s down from roughly 6× in 2023, which saw a surge in global AI training and inference capacity following the release of the initial ChatGPT and GPT-4, led by Nvidia’s new H100 GPU.

Some evidence suggests further deceleration in growth over this period, but it is not statistically significant and may also reflect a lull between generations. While Nvidia has recently started shipping its next-generation Rubin chips, it had not yet recognized any Rubin sales as of its latest fiscal quarter ending in July.

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Capabilities & benchmarking

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AI data centers

Open database of large AI data centers

Chip sales
Chip sales

Chip shipment volumes and revenue

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What experts say about Epoch AI

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Université de Montréal

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What experts say about Epoch AI

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Executive Vice President and Director of Studies

Center for a New American Security

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What experts say about Epoch AI

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Assistant Professor of Statistics

University of California, Berkeley

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What experts say about Epoch AI

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What experts say about Epoch AI

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What experts say about Epoch AI

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