人类还是适合线性外推，不适合指数增长
年初3/4月份看 Nicholas 分享时候，也看到过这个图，对供给侧的分析基本可追踪看得见，但是对未知领域需求端的预测，非常困难，这种预期的不匹配导致阶段性的波动
所谓成长股，就是维持在高增长的时间周期，比想象的更长
Transformer 架构下 AI = Memory
I have been thinking about the famous chart showing how experts keep projecting linear growth in solar installations, year after year, and always get it wrong when growth is still exponential.
I think the same thing is happening with the discourse on product strategy around AI.
