Opticalpha Team

@OpticAlphaNet

Every market signal, live in one terminal.

Opticalpha Team
@OpticAlphaNet
11m
Why stocks rallied on a softer ISM: demand cooled, prices didn't. Services PMI 54.5 vs 54.8 est. New orders fell 59.8 to 55.9. Prices paid 73.0, up for the 113th straight month. Employment 51.4. $SPY +1.3% at 764. Cooler orders, hot costs. The tape took the first half.
Opticalpha Team
@OpticAlphaNet
2h
Why ADP and BLS keep disagreeing: Sept private payrolls were +86K (ADP, revised) vs +29K (BLS). Today ADP printed +86K again vs 75K est. Two counts, one economy. Friday's BLS number, consensus near +63K, decides which one the Fed believes.
1
Opticalpha Team
@OpticAlphaNet
4h
Why Friday's jobs report is a weird one: Unemployment 4.2%, stuck between 4.1 and 4.3 since March. Payrolls +29K in September. JOLTS openings 7.52M. Few hires, few fires. The Fed gets no clean read either way. Friday 8:30 AM ET picks which side breaks.
Opticalpha Team
@OpticAlphaNet
12h
Why the dollar slid while yields held: Early Democratic wins pushed DXY to 101.39 (-0.3%). The 2Y still sits at 4.566%. Fed funds effective: 3.88%. The 2Y trades nearly 70bps above policy. Bonds price a Fed that moves up. The dollar shed election premium. The rate gap didn't.
Opticalpha Team
@OpticAlphaNet
14h
Why the long end won't let go: JOLTS openings printed 7.52M vs 7.10M expected. The 10Y closed at 4.948%, up about 5 bps. The 30Y sits at 5.29%. Nasdaq still closed +0.83%. Stocks shrugged. The curve didn't.
1

Opticalpha Team’s posts