I just stumbled upon an event on edhtop16 that's called 'Laquatus Fans Only' where all 16 players have been playing Ambassador Laquatus as their commander🤩
edhtop16 is awseome. Can't stress this enough. But the conversion rate has a mathematical flaw and I tried to fix it. According to my method the commanders with the highest chance of conversion are:
1. Kraum/Tevesh
2. Thrasios/Vial Smasher
3. Dargo/Tymna
4. Dihada
5. Kenrith
Here is a comparison of win rates by seat before and after the bans. The increase in draw rate and drop in win rate for the 4th seat are statistically significant.
Terra is probably the best 5C Food Chain deck, but Food Chain might not be the best choice for Terra. Early data suggests that decks with Food Chain had a 24% win rate (166 games), while those without it had a 34% win rate (36 games). Difference not statistically significant yet.
When I was asked to be involved in this, I said I’d gladly share my knowledge without fully considering the implications or knowing how deep some rabbit holes went. Things understandably escalated, and I found myself in a position that I neither asked for nor wanted. 1/4
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Over the past 8 weeks, 66.2% of TnT decks included Deadly Rollick. Decks with the card had a win rate of 32.9%, while those without it had a win rate of 23.9%. The gap is so large that one could even dare to speak of statistical significance 👀
Win rates are now at 23.3% (194 games with Food Chain) vs. 38.5% (50 games without Food Chain). The difference can now also be considered statistically significant (p-value < 0.05).
Friendly reminder: data can inform, but shouldn't dictate your choices 😉
Terra is probably the best 5C Food Chain deck, but Food Chain might not be the best choice for Terra. Early data suggests that decks with Food Chain had a 24% win rate (166 games), while those without it had a 34% win rate (36 games). Difference not statistically significant yet.
Recently successful spice 🌶️
Logan ashley went 4-1-1 on Tevesh/Thrasios @ 'April Reign CEDH 2k' on April 5th with these spicy includes:
Aether Channeler
Dour Port-Mage
This Town Ain't Big Enough
Step Through
Updated win rates by seat, filtered across event size ('All events' vs. '50+ players') and timeframe ('Since bans (+1 week)' vs. 'Last 3 months') — all combinations shown below.
Cluster analysis on Rog/Si decks separates Dark Rog from the rest. Dark Rog (cluster 0, in blue) is defined by the Citadel package, more tutors, and a complete lack of Force of Negation. The remaining cluster is defined by its focus on interaction.
