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Peter Inglesby
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Peter Inglesby
@inglesp
Writing software for epidemiologists at @BennettOxford by day, doing amateur psephology by night
UK
Joined January 2009
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  • Pinned
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    Peter Inglesby
    @inglesp
    Jun 28, 2024
    Morning all -- and hello new followers! There are now twelve (and counting?) different models making seat-by-seat predictions for next Thursday's election, and while they all indicate a Labour landslide, there's a lot of disagreement in the details.
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    157K
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    Peter Inglesby
    @inglesp
    Jun 29, 2024
    An anonymous "student with a love of politics" has just shared this splendid spreadsheet packed with analysis -- bookmarked for Thursday night:
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    docs.google.com
    General Election 2024 Spreadsheet
    68K
  • user avatar
    Peter Inglesby
    @inglesp
    Jul 2, 2024
    Hello everyone, less than 48 hours until the polls open... This morning I've added a "coefficient of correlation" to the aggregator, to indicate how much the models agree or disagree in each seat:
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    38K
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    Peter Inglesby
    @inglesp
    Jun 3, 2024
    Fellow nerds: I built a thing to compare general election predictions from different constituency models (Britain Predicts, Electoral Calculus, Economist, FT) inglesp.github.io/apogee/
    33K
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    Peter Inglesby
    @inglesp
    Jul 1, 2024
    Late lunchtime update: I've updated the tracker with all the latest predictions, including a new entry from @JLPartnersPolls inglesp.github.io/apogee/
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    17K
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    Peter Inglesby
    @inglesp
    Jul 4, 2024
    This is what happens when your little project gets mentioned in the Guardian on election night (The y-axis is visits per minute)
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    6.7K
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    Peter Inglesby
    @inglesp
    Jun 28, 2024
    Replying to @inglesp
    So, while there are only 11 constituencies where all models agree the Conservatives will win, there are 57 where at least nine models predict they will.  (cc @zoenora6) inglesp.github.io/apogee/?2024=c…
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    23K
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    Peter Inglesby
    @inglesp
    Jul 3, 2024
    To my bafflement, and my family's amusement, I've been invited to talk about election predictions (and to share my own?!) with @rosiewright99 on Times Radio at 5.45 tomorrow morning...
    16K
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    Peter Inglesby
    @inglesp
    Jun 28, 2024
    Replying to @inglesp
    And while there are 24 constituencies with at least one prediction of Reform winning, there are only 4 where three models agree. inglesp.github.io/apogee/?2024=r…
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    16K
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    Peter Inglesby
    @inglesp
    Jul 4, 2024
    Lunchtime update: a couple of new little features to play with this evening... Firstly, a new page that breaks seats down by predicted margin -- look how many Conservative seats are predicted to be held by less than 5% inglesp.github.io/apogee/breakdo…
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    7.2K
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    Peter Inglesby
    @inglesp
    Jul 3, 2024
    Just a quick update this morning: to reflect the thin margins of many of the predictions, I've made a tweak to the colours on the site. For instance, here are all the seats where there's a prediction of the Greens winning tomorrow: inglesp.github.io/apogee/?predic…
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    13K
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    Peter Inglesby
    @inglesp
    Jun 28, 2024
    Replying to @colinrtalbot
    Right! I've got plans to evaluate the predictions, based not just on who got the most seats right, but on who was best able to model trends across the country. Watch this space!
    5.3K
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    Peter Inglesby
    @inglesp
    Jun 28, 2024
    Replying to @inglesp
    I've just pushed an update to my aggregator of election predictions that lets you find all the constituencies where at least N models agree.
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    11K
  • user avatar
    Peter Inglesby
    @inglesp
    Nov 16, 2017
    Users of open source: why not drop a line to a library maintainer to tell them that you're using the library and what you're using it for?
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