Commodity Wx Group (@commoditywx) / X

Commodity Wx Group

6,224 posts

Commodity Wx Group

@commoditywx

Commodity Weather Group, LLC (CWG) helps its clients manage and mitigate the weather’s important impacts on agricultural and energy commodities.

Bethesda, MD, USA

Joined March 2014

Commodity Wx Group
@commoditywx
Sep 10, 2025
Northeast Pacific super-warm blob is back- does that put 2013 and 2014 on table for winter?
Commodity Wx Group
@commoditywx
Nov 14, 2022
End of today's 0z European ensemble shows some similarities to late November 1995 (another La Niña, -EPO, -WPO, and +GLAAM month), which preceded cold and very volatile winter.
Commodity Wx Group
@commoditywx
Jan 31, 2024
In somewhat of surprise, models quickly rebuilding new stratospheric warming that may target pole by middle February.
GIF
Commodity Wx Group
@commoditywx
Jan 24, 2025
Afternoon models speeding up return to colder national conditions during first week of February.
GIF
GIF
Commodity Wx Group
@commoditywx
Jan 10, 2025
Day 15 American/European ensemble clusters show either Alaska ridge (for cold U.S.) or strong Alaska ridge (for very cold U.S.).
Commodity Wx Group
@commoditywx
Jan 10, 2025
Increasing concern for severe Texas cold event in Jan 20-22 range. AI and operational models are most aggressive, but American/European ensembles trending colder for event too.
Commodity Wx Group
@commoditywx
Feb 26, 2025
Potential strong stratospheric warming in late 6-10 day through 11-15 day could be season's only official (and final) Sudden Stratospheric Warming with Northern Hemisphere potential cooler to colder impacts later in March and even April.
Commodity Wx Group
@commoditywx
Jan 31, 2025
Mid-February stratospheric warming event could be strongest so far this winter with potential impacts for North America, Europe, and Asia for late-winter and early spring.
Commodity Wx Group
@commoditywx
Jan 29, 2025
MJO approach to phase 7 could flip pattern back to cold side for U.S. by 2nd week of February, similar to super-warm late December to cold early January flip from this winter.
Commodity Wx Group
@commoditywx
Jan 24, 2025
Continued North Pacific ridging, including -WPO, -EPO, and -ABNA signals, should continue to favor southward cold transport through Lower 48 in early February.
Commodity Wx Group
@commoditywx
Jan 6, 2025
Another Alaska high pressure ridge spike setting stage for additional U.S. cold outbreak for week of Mon Jan 20th (per both regular and AI models).
Commodity Wx Group
@commoditywx
Dec 6, 2024
First bigger stratospheric warming event of season queuing up in Asia.
Commodity Wx Group
@commoditywx
Feb 14, 2025
Intense Arctic outbreak next week to deliver 2nd coldest EIA week of winter. ERCOT should see colder temperatures than January event with lows in low teens for Dallas and 20s for Houston.
GIF
Commodity Wx Group
@commoditywx
Jan 8, 2025
Ensemble members are divided on type of cold outbreak during Jan 20th week, but generally agree on cold pattern persistence.