In Dependence

By now, if you've never heard of the Deepwater Horizon tragedy in the Gulf of Mexico, you'd be living under a rock like I do, haha. You can read the gory details here.

Most of society's outrage at this incident is directed at oil producer BP and to some extent, the Obama administration for its handling of the tragedy. While they rightly deserve much of the criticism, as usual we miss the biggest culprit of them all: we the consumers.

Who kicked this whole ball rolling? We did, with our demand for 85.51 million barrels of oil a day according to Bloomberg, no doubt to fuel our lifestyles. Extraction platforms like Deepwater Horizon exist purely for this. It is how the conditions for accidents like this one are set up. Whichever oil company that was involved is besides the point. Honestly, would it be any different if it was Shell's rig that erupted rather than BP's? I didn't think so.

So as I follow the news reports and tweets of the tragedy, that omission of our own culpability in the blame game is most glaring. No one seems to be asking, did this accident have our fingerprints on it? Well not yet anyway but for our sake, I hope it'll happen soon because as long as we miss the chance for introspection, we miss the chance to develop the will to change our habits. Then history will most certainly repeat itself.

Which leads us back to the obvious question. Will we ever be free of our dependence on oil? Would we ever want to? Can we even imagine a life without oil?

Personally I admit, with some sniffles, that its gonna be hell for me to let go of everything oil-related. The cutting off of the Internet would be the most painful. TNB burns diesel to produce electricity that powers our broadband network. This is followed by my only form of personal transportation - the bicycle with its oil-derived synthetics like tyres. Our kitchen stove at home runs on gas, a by-product of petroleum, as is the kerosene in our lamps. My dad's medication is most certainly made by machines powered by oil-produced electricity. And this is all just the tip of the iceberg.

But what will seal our collective fate, I feel, is our phobia of alternative sources. We've already said 'no' to nuclear. Probably a good thing too considering we can't be trusted to safeguard a jet engine, let alone a roomful of thorium. We are hostile to renewables like wind and solar. They just can't produce enough juice to power our non-negotiables - our TV sets, lights and computers. Impractical. Our minds are made up. Oil it shall be and with that, we embrace the risks of our choice, including the prospect of more Deepwater Horizon and Exxon Valdez-type incidents.

Because we are part of the problem, its hard to understand our anger when it happens. Murphy's law, my friends. Can't avoid it if we tried.

Our saving grace is that at 85 million barrels a day, we're bound to run out. My gut says about 20 years time for prices to quadruple, give or take a couple of years. Oh I'm not worried about me. I'm worried about my young nephews and nieces, some of whom are just tots. They'll be running smack into this at the prime of their lives. How do I condition them for a different future? Or should I leave them to their own devices like most parents do?

What would you do?

The post electrical world

I saw a tv program yesterday, a documentary that got me thinking. Yep, with no job and no wife and kids to mind, I can afford the luxury of fantasizing all day, lol.

My fondness of sci-fi films have always endeared me to theories on where civilization is heading so this latest one about the upcoming solar flare anomaly naturally pricked my ears. We've been treated to the Hollywood versions of this in 2012 starring John Cusack and Knowing starring Nicholas Cage. Riveting shows I must say, proposing not just how it might happen but how people will treat each other in such an event.

So a couple of days ago when NASA's alarms bells rang again, I got excited. It'll come in a couple of years, by 2013 they promise. A giant solar flare party guaranteed to rock us to the core and leave our satellites and cities dead. That's the latest in a long line of predictions that include the usual suspects - global warming, global freezing, supervolcano, world war 3 and so forth. Each one thoroughly open to dispute of course, which is the beauty of science's openness to critique.

Remember the 70's? Those photos of people holding up "The end is nigh! Repent!" sign waving by the roadsides of America? It was a hip thing to do during the hippie era. Those days, all people had was the word of God. Well okay, other prophecy books probably weighed in too plus whatever it was they were smoking. This century, its more dramatic. They got the props to go along with it. Real actual props with real actual dead people... in tsunamis, earthquakes, floods, volcanoes, pandemics, droughts, religious fundies, you name it. Its all happening at a pace that's leaving scientists scratching their heads.

Nobody knows what will eventually do us in but all post-ELE (extinction level event) scenarios seem to point to one similar conclusion. If there are survivors, they will not come from Europe, America or any other advanced country. They will rise from 'backward' nations.

Who are these backward nations? They are societies that are not affected by EMP, that electro magnetic pulse generated by a nuclear or solar event. They have poor electrical infrastructure. Simply put, if you've never had a need for iPads, iPhones, cars, shopping malls, internet... you will probably survive the big sweep. That's the theory.

Technology has made us great but it has also given us a genetic-like fatality. Try living without electricity for more than a week. That's what the scientists are trying to say about this new solar flare anomaly.

Yes, what to do when power stations grind to a halt and the phones don't work, the water don't flow and the toilets won't flush. What to do when the petrol stations shut down, shops don't open and you're down to your last can of beans. Not for days or weeks but for months on end. Oh we'll still have fossil fuel alright. Its just that everything we need to deliver it would have fried in a solar EMP blast. These are sensitive electronics that control power stations, phone networks, distribution of goods, even your car. The factories that make these electronics will also have fried, leaving you with no spares. Rebuilding them will take years, even decades.

It would be the time when people realize that money cannot be eaten. The might of the dollar is no more.

So who'll survive? My guess is the farmer and the hunter. Simple but hardy people living off the land, in the forests, remote valleys and far-flung villages untouched by 'civilization.' Scientists predict that when social structure breaks down, the balance of power will almost certainly tip over to the ruthless and the lawless. Where money once spoke, sharp weapons take over. The civilizational continuum may actually flip backwards to the medieval times.

And in a curious karma-ish flip, the oppressors who once used money and technology to exploit the have-nots could find themselves at the opposite end of the stick.

It sounds Hollywood-ish but not hard to imagine. There are many spots on earth where the survival of the fittest doesn't involve money. Who do you think has a greater chance of surviving a post-electrical world - the hardy hunter from impoverished Congo or the nerdy accountant from some downtown consulting firm?

In my own village, it still feels surreal to light up a kerosene lamp at night (its cheaper than paying TNB) and then hook up to the internet via mobile broadband. I live in two worlds. That's why news like NASA's is kinda fun, coz I get to ponder on how long I might survive in a post-electrical world, hypothetically speaking.

Our days are shortened, literally

So the Chile earthquake moved the planet's axis by 3 inches and subsequently shortened our days by 1.26 microseconds according to NASA scientists. The earth began to spin that little bit faster after the hiccup.

Your alarm clock won't notice the difference but will this discrepancy affect devices that require split second timing? The media reports don't say. What are these devices?

GPS devices. Global network servers. Weapon guidance systems. Aircraft navigation systems. Satellite positioning controllers. Delivery and billing systems. These things work in groups over long distances and need flawless timing to cooperate.

We'll find out in the months to come if we're seeing the makings of a technological disaster movie. I hope I am wrong.

I also hope this Chilean blip is not a sign that the dragon that is the notorious Pacific Ring of Fire is awakening:

The Ring of Fire is an area of high volcanic activity due to shifts along the fault line.
The red triangles refer to known volcanoes and the yellow circles to known earthquakes.
The orange line shows a convergent boundary in the earth's crust;
this is where two plates are coming together.

Source: National Geographic, March 1998.

 Notice where cozy Malaysia is tucked?

This is what the dragon looks like in its entirety, the red dots stretching from South America northwards to US, Japan, Philippines, New Zealand.

And from the drawing, it looks like the USGS has forecasted Peninsula Malaysia to be an island when the shit hits the fan.