Pinned
Prediction markets let you trade any event in the world.
Nobody gave you a way to hedge a geopolitical
crisis, trade the AI narrative, or profit off a
macro shock as one position.
We did.
The Itô Thesis.
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Itô
29 posts
Itô
@ito_markets
The ETF Layer for Prediction Markets | Baskets, indices, and real-time risk across Polymarket & Kalshi
- This is an excellent list - thank you, @lzminsky, for the shoutout. Please also check out Lauris’ research; he’s doing amazing work. We are excited to work in the structuring of prediction markets and to continue our mission to make prediction markets institutional-grade, ifIf we’re pointing at track record / pedigree x Execution x Thesis, I would recommend looking into these teams - @pumpcade - @ito_markets - @DaedalusRsch - @functionspaceHQ - @Polysights - @ForecastFDN - @gondorfi Some target similar problems but are sufficiently
- This is exactly why we build baskets and price them at NAV. Structuring prediction markets this way lets the underlying markets keep their idiosyncratic beta profile while removing their idiosyncratic duration, which opens up new high-beta strategies.one of the hardest unsolved problems in prediction markets: turning them into insurance, yield, or lending products when the underlying risk is fundamentally idiosyncratic the primitive is powerful but the risk profile is what makes it nearly impossible to financialize with
- We will soon release the second version of the causal graph - a do calculus analysis of prediction markets.a few weeks ago @ito_markets made a nice repo for visualizing PM data. Made a fork with, you guessed it, @Kalshi data Thanks @absurdistphil and @affaan for the initial build. The 3D globe looks awesome. Daily refresh + will bundle with all of the other releases
- So cool to see things being built on our Polymarket Universe GDP public repo! On that note we are relaunching the Itô technology baskets - revised! [WIP + subject to change] ITO-T1 → ITO Moat Index ITO-T2 → ITO AI Supply Chain Hedge ITO-T1B → ITO AI Capex Tail Hedge
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Today, I'm launching the Eternal Atlas (atlaseternal.xyz). The Atlas is a catalogue of assets and institutions that cannot be replaced by AI and will compound both culturally and economically for years to come. Permanence is the rarest asset class.Replying to @ito_marketsInstitutional Thematic Baskets + Custom Baskets w/ Deployed Strategies Built for: - CFOs / treasurers carrying AI vendor + input-cost risk on the balance sheet - Allocators hunting thematic AI hedges - Funds wanting custom market-neutral books on our infra DMs open. - This is the type of overview that's has been missing Where in the stack everyone currently sits; what the implications/value add/leverage is For Ito that's on the methodology (agentic + heuristic) + rebalancing/execution (algorithmic) layer
- Itô reposted
Consolidated one of my workflows today and it ended up creating a clean map of how institutional-side prediction market structuring + execution currently looks actor and flow wise. Sharing it as someone might find it useful. Sell-side to settlement. If you’ve sat in the seat,
- Itô reposted
chicken and egg in event markets: better oracles let you issue the long tail of contracts, but you need contracts to exist for oracles to converge on an entire world of outcomes isn't represented in any issued market today - that gap is where the interesting work is, the open - Itô reposted"super lucrative" yet doing another PM setup that builds for degen retail institutions aren't looking at PMs taking off and thinking, "yk what would make our portfolio a lot better? if we full port into a 6 leg PM parlay" leveraged PMs will also have the same fate, these areparlays are super lucrative and allows you to have multiplicative effect to your predictions (aka leverage) we are building this at @totalistrading PARLAY. ON. ANYTHING. across categories and across PMs totalis[dot]trade
- Itô repostedthis absolutely is happening and we're actively capitalizing on this thesis (at Itô) working with hedge funds (and more than just that in adjacent fields, family funds, specific market makers, some DAOs, some boutique and QT firms) a subset of tradfi is actively trading,
00:00Few days ago, was speaking with a former colleague at a hedge fund that has been working on deploying prediction markets as a part of their trading strategy Summary of our conversation and why he thinks prediction markets will absolutely become a core pillar of every macro hedge
