Wayne Lin

Kroger is now three layers away from their own customer. This week, Instacart launched full checkout inside ChatGPT. Not a link out. Not "shop on Instacart." You ask for apple pie ingredients. You check out. You never leave the chat. This creates a new hierarchy: Customer ↓ ChatGPT (owns the conversation) ↓ Instacart (owns the fulfillment) ↓ Kroger (owns... what, exactly?) Each layer is trying to make the one below it invisible. Instacart celebrates getting inside ChatGPT. OpenAI is already planning to make them the pipes. Here's the grocery landscape right now: Kroger, Sprouts → Using Instacart's AI. Two layers removed. Target, DoorDash → ChatGPT integrations. One layer removed. Walmart → Hedging. Sparky internally, ChatGPT externally. Amazon blocked ChatGPT entirely. They know this game. They invented it. For 20 years, Amazon turned distribution into a trap. Sellers thought they were winning reach. Amazon made them interchangeable. Faceless options in a grid. Now the same playbook is coming for grocery. Except there are more layers. And the grocers are becoming SKUs in someone else's catalog. The question every retailer should be asking: How many layers sit between you and your customer? And what happens when that layer decides you're replaceable?

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Thank you Scott Benedict & Deanah Baker for a great convesation about the Retail Trends, (Part 1) Doing Business in Bentonville podcast.

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Predictive Waterfalls + Causal ML: The Future of Smarter Growth Every retailer and CPG leader knows this truth: The world doesn’t stand still. - Prices fluctuate - Weather shifts demand - Events pop up - Economic tides rise and fall. That’s where Predictive Waterfalls come in. They show you the projected impact of changing circumstances, like a flowchart of “what happens if…” 💡 But here’s the kicker: Predictive Waterfalls tell you the potential trajectory, while Causal ML explains the real impact. Together, they’re a one-two punch: Predictive Waterfalls → Map out how price changes, weather, or external factors could influence demand. Causal ML → Distinguish what actually caused the change, versus what would have happened anyway. Example: 🛒 A beverage brand runs Predictive Waterfalls for a summer promo → forecasts a heatwave + price cut could drive +20% lift. 📈 Causal ML then reveals the promo alone delivered +8%, while the weather drove the rest. Result? Smarter targeting + better forecasting = higher ROI, less wasted spend. Takeaway: In a world of constant change, you don’t need more guesswork. You need clarity: Predictive Waterfalls to anticipate, and Causal ML to validate. That’s how Retail, Ecommerce, and CPG leaders protect margins, drive growth, and sleep a little easier at night. 😴 #customerinsights #predictiveanalytics #causalml #retailstrategy #ecommercestrategy #cpgmarketing #decisionintelligence #graphitenote #smartgrowth

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Instacart Accelerates Growth with Strong Q1 Performance and Strategic Innovations 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗣𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀 • Revenue and Earnings: Instacart reported Q1 revenue of $897 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $838.5 million, marking a 9% year-over-year increase. Net income reached $106 million, with adjusted EBITDA at $244 million. • Order Growth: The company experienced a 14% year-over-year rise in orders—the fastest pace in 10 quarters—while gross transaction value (GTV) grew by 10%, despite a 4% dip in average order value. • Advertising Expansion: Advertising revenue contributed significantly to performance, with new Carrot Ads partnerships formed with Hy-Vee and Uber Eats. • AI and Consumer Tools: Instacart introduced AI-driven features like pairing suggestions and personalized Health Tags, alongside value-focused offerings such as $0 delivery fees on $10 minimum baskets. • Chase Partnership: An expanded collaboration with Chase now offers eligible cardmembers three free months of Instacart+ and monthly $10 in-app credits. • Retailer and Brand Solutions: The company enhanced its Store View AI tool to better predict out-of-stocks and reduce substitutions, and reported increased adoption of its Universal Campaigns ad technology among brands. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗜𝘁 𝗠𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀 ✅ Strong Financial Start: Exceeding revenue expectations and achieving significant order growth indicate a robust beginning to the fiscal year. ✅ Strategic Partnerships: Collaborations with retailers like Hy-Vee and platforms like Uber Eats expand Instacart's reach and advertising capabilities. ✅ Innovation in Consumer Experience: AI-driven tools and value offerings enhance user engagement and satisfaction, potentially increasing customer loyalty. ✅ Enhanced Retailer Support: Advanced tools like Store View AI and Universal Campaigns provide retailers and brands with improved inventory management and advertising solutions. ✅ Continued Growth Trajectory: With these strategic initiatives, Instacart is well-positioned for ongoing growth and innovation in the online grocery sector. Progressive Grocer | https://lnkd.in/gqPhziUZ #Retail #Supermarkets #ECommerce #Grocery #Instacart #AI #Digital #Innovation

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Walmart continues to show what retail adaptability looks like at scale. Their latest AI tools for associates don’t just make operations more efficient—they simplify, guide, and free up time for what matters most: the customer. By combining generative AI with AR and RFID, they’re showing how real-time intelligence can enhance decision-making from the shelf to the backroom. It’s a move that echoes the principles of The Agile Code—adaptability, experimentation, and team empowerment. 💡 What’s your “escape fire”? How are you redeploying time saved through technology? #TheAgileCode #RetailInnovation #AIinRetail #Walmart #AgilityInAction https://lnkd.in/eGQwTKsd

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For CPG supplier teams, every empty shelf impacts revenue and loyalty. Yet, staying ahead isn’t easy when our industry is moving faster than ever. To help you keep pace, at this year’s Consumer Impact Summit in Bentonville, Michael Graen, the foremost expert on on-shelf availability (OSA), will be hosting an expert panel with: Brennan Stoufflet, MBA (Director of CPFR at bops) Henry Ho (Chief Strategy Officer at Storesight) Len Wierzbicki (Head of Strategy & Marketing at Badger Technologies) In this session, Mike and the team plan to explore: ✅ Why OSA matters ✅ How to measure OSA ✅ Solution providers who can help you drive OSA improvements ✅ The future of OSA measurement and improvement No matter your customer focus—Walmart, Target, Kroger, regional chains, or e-commerce—this panel will empower you with actionable insights to deepen your understanding of OSA and create a plan to drive better results at the shelf. Here is what you need to know about Mike Graen’s OSA panel: 🗓 September 17th | 11:00–11:45 AM CST 📍 The Ledger, Bentonville If you aren’t already registered for the Consumer Impact Summit happening next week, you can do so now 👇 https://lnkd.in/enXX-_gW __ #OSA #CPFR #Supplychain

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Quince just dropped a big news on traditional retail—$500M Series E at a $10.1B valuation, more than doubling from last year's $4.5B in under 12 months?! 😱🔥 This isn't some AI hype bubble play; it's a real-world execution masterclass. Sid Gupta (ex-banker/PE beast) built an anti-retail machine: Manufacturer-to-Consumer (M2C) powered by AI-driven demand forecasting, supply chain optimization, and direct factory links that slash markups, kill overproduction waste, and deliver cashmere sweaters at $50 that feel like $300 luxury. Revenue blasted past $1B in 2025—that's not a startup anymore, that's a decacorn reshaping fashion and essentials. While everyone chases shiny agentic LLMs, Quince proves the biggest wins come from owning the boring-but-deadly-efficient stack: designs, manufacturing, tech, data flywheel. No middlemen, smaller batches, hyper-accurate forecasting, global expansion incoming (Canada already live, more markets next). Investors like ICONIQ, Baillie Gifford, DST Global, Wellington pouring in because this model actually prints money in a world tired of 10x retail inflation. Quince isn't disrupting fashion—it's democratizing premium quality and making legacy department stores look prehistoric. If you're still paying full price for basics anywhere else, you're basically funding inefficiency. This is the future of commerce staring us in the face. Massive congrats to the team—y'all just proved you can build a unicorn (wait decacorn) empire by solving real pain instead of chasing trends. Who's stocking up on that Mongolian cashmere next drop? 🚀🤑 #Quince #M2C #FashionTech #AntiRetail https://lnkd.in/ghXuztXD

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Fishwife is one of the most beloved brands in CPG right now and for good reason! The brand grew an entire (previously very stale) category and effectively catalyzed a cultural moment. But what doesn't get talked about??? The THREE-person ops team running the insanely robust omnichannel supply chain behind all of it. We partnered with Jampack AI (co-founded by CPG ops vet, Matteo Rossant) to go behind the scenes with Jack Henry Delano, Fishwife's Head of Operations and first employee. He walked us through the full (not-so-glamorous) picture: from the Google Sheet era, to a brutal ERP go-live, and what actually saved them from drowning in operational complexity to successfully scaling into 15,000 new retail doors in under a year. The buzziest brands in CPG are quietly conquering their back end. And this is what it actually looks like! 🔗 LINK IN COMMENTS! 🔗

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CEO of Walmart just confirmed what our data already had been telling us. It’s going to be a SLOB tsunami. While media typically only discuss this from a US lens, for Asia the fall out from what’s happening now will be even more of an issue if immediate actions to prepare for this aren’t made soon. 1- Brands in Asia as I recently posted already lose out from cross border marketplace arbitrage. There is no unified Asian dollar store for the consumers Walmart is referring too- the bottom earners either won’t buy brands at all or get the supply from the lowest floor - parallel importers and unauthorized resellers 2- wholesale and distributors will feel the pinch - we already are seeing this uptick now 3- the inventory that isn’t getting purchased by those feeling the pinch will eventually get funneled into the decentralised lowest price floor set not by brands - like in the US and Japan with outlets and discounter specific SKUs - but by the resellers and parallel importers and the cycle repeats . 4- oh and yes - none of this is good for the environment - there’s a reason Asia landfills are growing rapidly and there isn’t a day that I work stop thinking how we must curtail that . ““They're trading down from brands, and they're buying less, and it's changing their buying habits, and that kind of thing. ” Excerpt From “Retail giant Walmart issues economic warning” Daniel Kline, Celine Provini TheStreet https://lnkd.in/gezseXK2 This material may be protected by copyright.

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Today, live shopping makes up over 75% of sales across stores & marketplaces using District. It turns out when you pack obsessed buyers into one space and offer them ephemeral deals, stuff sells fast. Brands don’t measure profit per sku anymore. They measure profit per hour.

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I wrote a piece for Food Logistics on AI in CPG - less about hype, more about what actually worked in 2025. The gap I keep seeing isn’t interest (that’s growing) - it’s confidence. People worry about using AI wrong and not knowing where it fits. The trust gap is real. Three patterns that helped: - Orchestrate information with AI; keep humans on nuance + decisions - faster answers, better calls - Put guardrails in writing (where it’s allowed / not allowed) - less hesitation, fewer mistakes - Build fluency through reps, not policies - adoption that sticks These were the most repeatable patterns we saw in 2025 - and they’re still the best starting point in 2026. https://lnkd.in/g_uKGr_8

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Consumer demand shifts quickly, but the tools brands use to understand that demand often lag behind. Harmonya is changing that. Their platform turns unstructured product data into insights that help CPG companies and retailers anticipate trends, optimize assortments, and move at the pace of today’s consumer. We’re proud to back Harmonya as they help brands transform product data into a competitive advantage. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/e4M7xeSg #PortfolioCompany #RetailTech #ConsumerInsights #CPG #CommerceTech

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Lowes Foods shares their strategy to build loyalty and increase customer engagement without using an overabundance of in-store tech but instead promoting interaction between customers. They're focused on creating enjoyable in-store experiences and promoting digital coupons to promote loyalty, trust, and deliver added value to their shoppers. #ShopperLoyalty #DigitalCoupons #GroceryStrategy #GroceryLoyalty #MarketingStrategy #RetailInnovation #GroceryInspiration https://lnkd.in/gBmD6ytX

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This week on the #Retail Pulse Report: 📊 We've hit a historic moment in retail: Consumer confidence just recorded its LOWEST reading since 1951, yet retail sales are UP 5% YoY. This isn't just another vibecession update. We're watching the most extreme divergence between sentiment and spending I've ever analyzed. Key findings from this week's Retail Pulse Report: - Current conditions index: 52.3 (lowest in 73 years of tracking) - October job cuts: 154,074 (highest since 2003) - Tech layoffs reaching 2009 recession levels - Yet October retail sales grew ABOVE inflation rates This holiday season will be unlike any we've seen. Are you seeing that too? Or something else? #RetailEconomics #ConsumerSentiment #AIRetailSearch #KShapedRecovery #RetailEmployment #TargetStrategy #RetailPulseReport #HolidayRetail2025 #RetailAnalytics #VibecessionRetail

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RETAIL REPORT: Costco’s High-Growth Categories – Q4 FY25 Costco’s fourth quarter net sales increased 8 percent to $84.4 billion. The most striking development was the performance of specific categories, which highlight how the retailer is capturing discretionary and premium spend even in a value-driven format. Gold and Jewelry: This was the fastest-growing segment in the quarter. Members are showing a willingness to purchase premium discretionary items inside a warehouse club environment. Housewares, Apparel and Sporting Goods: These categories also posted strong gains. The combination of curated assortments, recognizable brands and value pricing is driving larger baskets. Small Electrics, Tires and Garden/Patio Products: Growth here demonstrates Costco’s ability to extend its appeal beyond staples into home and lifestyle needs. The data shows that trust and perceived quality encourage members to trade up. Jewelry, apparel and home goods are no longer just traffic drivers; they are strengthening loyalty and margin resilience for Costco in a challenging retail environment.

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The restaurant industry faces the same challenge. Double-intermediation. CGPT → Doordash → Restaurant If it was painful having DoorDash between you and your customer, we now have to figure out the right path to deal with yet another technology company (quickly hemorrhaging money) trying to take yet another slice. The solution, as always, is to own your own customer. Look no further than Amazon, who is not stepping into this trap.

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Proud to share this launch from my good friend Girdhar Arora and the team at Kacu Technology Inc. It’s been an honour to play a small role in helping bring this to life. I’ve learned a great deal along the way. Kacu addresses a real gap. Too often, emerging, better-for-you, and boutique brands are underserved because they do not have the budgets of larger brands, and retailers do not always have the bandwidth to support them promotionally. It’s a practical solution that helps retailers better support smaller and growing brands inside their existing digital experience. Retailers grow basket size, shoppers save and discover new products, and brokers and distributors benefit from stronger sell-through and increased reorders. Excited to see this out in the market. Looking forward to meeting many of Kacu's CPG partners at the Natural Products Expo #ExpoWest in person.

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