1/ Since a lot of people are waking up to see their perps positions closed and wondering what the hell “Auto-Deleveraging” means, here’s a quick and dirty primer.
What is ADL? How does it work? And why does it exist?
1/ Very rough and speculative sketch of what I increasingly think happened at FTX as more info comes out…
The central question is where did the money go? Yes malfeasance and fraud is necessary, but at one point in the cycle cash actually has to go out the door
1/ Finished a preliminary deep dive into the Kyber exploit, and think I now have a pretty good understanding of what happened.
This is easily the most complex and carefully engineered smart contract exploit I've ever seen...
Cute fact about the Zillow thing is that even if Zillow's model was more accurate than local agent valuations, local agents/property owners can still win on average because they get to choose which houses to buy/sell.
Depositors pulling from SVB wasn't the problem. The problem is SVB bought $100 billion of mortgages when yields were 1%
If you think this is just SVB, think of every person you know who locked in a 30 year mortgage at 2.5%. Who do you think was on the other side of that trade?
Rumor is Eth 3.0 announcement this week will be a second merge into a new consensus targeting 1 second block times, SSF and native zkEVM.
Native zkEVM in particular is huge. The gas limit can be eliminated entirely. Builders can build arbitrarily large blocks, since nodes only
Uniswap doing NFTs. dydx becoming a cosmos chain. Solana making a phone. Vitalik becoming a travel blogger.
Tune in next week when Cardano opens a chain of barbecue restaurants and Do Kwon joins the cast of SNL
So looks like HL force closed the Jelly market and overrode the oracle price (about $0.50) to settle at $0.0095, leaving the attacker with a small loss.
21/ ADL is kind of like reaching the end of the Truman Show. Perps markets build this very beautiful simulation of the underlying spot
But at the of the day it’s all imaginary. Most of the time we don’t have to think about it… but sometimes we hit the edge of the simulation
1/ How to lie with statistics advanced edition...
This meta-study claims to overturn the long established pattern that moderate drinkers have lower mortality than abstainers. After adjusting for confounders there was "no significant reduction in mortality". Very misleading...
New huge meta-analysis of alcohol and all-cause mortality
If you're holding a glass of wine tonight and thinking "this is medicine! it's basically carrot juice" you're deluding yourself.
While moderate drinking isn't great for you, it's not obviously bad.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
PLEASE CONFIRM: A user claims that they spotted Caroline Ellison at Ground Support Coffee on West Broad in SoHo Manhattan at 8:15 AM. This would mean she is not in Hong Kong and is in NY not in custody.