AltayCap
7,863 posts
AltayCap
@AltayCapital
Value investor. Istanbul. Nothing I post is investment advice. All my writeups are free. No paywalls. altaycap.substack.com
- Have you ever seen a stock price that's been flat for 20 years with minimal volatility? Here's one. Niigata Kotsu (TYO 9017). Has gone nowhere since 2006. Not a particularly good investment given debt and RE assets in declining pop area, but wild chart.
- Great post on a long time fintwit nav discount favorite (Porsche Holding $PAH3). Love the intro:
Published a new piece: VW & Porsche - NAV discounts you can actually eat. With a 10% dividend yield, premium brands, and management tackling inefficiencies, VW offers one of the biggest price-to-value gaps in the market. Through PAH3, the opportunity is even more compelling. - Nippon Ichi Software Inc (TYO: 3851) is A Deep Value, Profitable, and Growing Japanese Video Game Developer That’s Almost a Net-Net $44m mcap $40m in net cash+securities This values biz @ ~$4.3m (less than 1x net income) Founder Now in Charge I'm long.
- Every time I look at PayPal $PYPL and get tempted to buy it, I remind myself they paid $4 billion for Honey, a browser add on for coupons. Core biz is okay, but numerous awful acquisitions.
Investors believe that Chinese tech stocks are currently worth less than March 2020 when: * China's economy was shut down. * Corporate earnings were lower. * Multiples were higher. What do you think? Is the Taiwan risk bigger than COVID?- I built myself a mini ETF of extremely cheap JP names with the following characteristics: Market Cap Average: $59.86M EV/Ebitda (LTM): 2.1x P/TBV: 0.5X P/E: 6.5X TBV CAGR (3Y): 8.49% TBV CAGR (5Y): 8.01% TBV CAGR (10Y): 7.24% Yield: 2.72% Components: 43
- 20 years ago Keihin (TYO 9312) was trading at 1.2x book and 21x p/e and had ¥25.3b yen of net debt. EPS was ¥96. Stock price was ¥2,000, mcap ¥13.5b. Today stock price is about the same (¥1,973) despite paying down ALL of its net debt (no dilution) and EPS up over 3x. P/E today
- Another reason I'm extremely bullish on cheap Japanese stocks is that they can be funded with 0.75% JPY margin debt @ IBKR. That's ultimately my hurdle rate. I think I will far exceed it.
- I had a few people ask me already, but I'd like to put this publicly. I don't manage outside money and I don't want to manage outside money. Thanks for the offers, but I'm not interested.
- Didn't notice this until today. Another shareholder died and donated 203,840 shares to the company in July, 2025 (~6% of outstanding shares). Their will also donated their real estate to the company. This is a share canibal from shareholders gifting stock and them buying back!
This deserves another repost. Founder of Sato Foods upon his death donated 32% of company's float back to the company for FREE. A huge gift to shareholders. Has this happened anywhere else? Great writeup and despite doing well, co remains cheap. - New writeup on the 'Stack. Free like usual, link in bio. They own land in Sakai City near Osaka that's valued on the balance sheet at just $22,500, but is likely worth 260x that. They're the #1 Manufacturor of Made in Japan shovels and spades. This is a TINY $10m mcap net net
