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Dan Niles
@DanielTNiles
Founder of Niles Investment Management, Tech Nerd, Bad Tennis Player, Proud Dad. Posts are for information purposes only & never investment advice.
Joined October 2013
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  • user avatar
    Dan Niles
    @DanielTNiles
    Oct 19, 2025
    Right now I am positioned for the market to head to new highs before the holidays and the goal is to catch as much of this inflating AI bubble as possible. As Mae West said, "Too much of a good thing can be wonderful!" In an interview on Friday, I said “Unfortunately the market
    299K
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    Dan Niles
    @DanielTNiles
    May 10, 2022
    If CPI print tomorrow is <8.5%, the peak inflation narrative may spur the next bear mkt rally much like "A 75 basis point increase is not something that the (Fed) committee is actively considering," did on 5/4. But we believe the ultimate low & a recession is still ahead.
  • user avatar
    Dan Niles
    @DanielTNiles
    Jun 6, 2024
    With $NVDA becoming the second most valuable company in the world yesterday, I thought it worthwhile to lay out my thoughts both near-term and longer-term depending on your time horizon. My belief is that over the next 3-4 years, Nvidia revenues are likely to roughly triple from
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    Dan Niles
    @DanielTNiles
    May 20, 2024
    I expect a large beat & raise when $NVDA results are released on 5/22 given more supply available from $TSM. Given the stock is currently trading 15% below its 5 year average forward PE but expectations are EXTREMELY high, I would expect a small positive reaction from the stock.
    412K
  • user avatar
    Dan Niles
    @DanielTNiles
    Apr 28, 2025
    While I started the year with cash as my leading pick and no Magnificent 7 names, on April 7th I did a CNBC interview that was titled “Might see a short-term bounce, but still cautious long-term, says investor Dan Niles.” On April 9th, the 90 day pushback on tariffs as
    153K
  • user avatar
    Dan Niles
    @DanielTNiles
    Aug 29, 2024
    Following $NVDA’s results today, I thought it might be worthwhile to re-examine the current AI landscape both short-term and longer-term. I wrote on July 11th, “I continue to believe there is a rising mismatch between the amount of capex spent on AI and the resulting revenues
    283K
  • user avatar
    Dan Niles
    @DanielTNiles
    Sep 23, 2022
    Big crashes on Monday follow bad wk & bad Friday but 70%+ of my technical metrics (holdouts VIX & volume related) are oversold w/ 50% threshold. Staying disciplined & covering shorts. Believe SPX ~3K is still THE low but expect nxt bear mkt rally. Already 5 in 2022 w/ avg of 9%
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    Dan Niles
    @DanielTNiles
    Jul 11, 2024
    Today can be filed under “be careful what you wish for.” CPI was down 0.1% from May & was the first decline since May 2020 which is certainly good news. While Fed cut hopes rose, investor complacency in all things AI related was reflected in the violent rotation within the
    258K
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    Dan Niles
    @DanielTNiles
    Mar 9, 2025
    While I expect a near-term rally given some of the oversold levels reached intra-day last week, Q1 reporting season is likely to be challenging. At the beginning of the year I wrote, “My range of possible outcomes for 2025 of +10%... to down 20%... is one of the widest I can
    159K
  • user avatar
    Dan Niles
    @DanielTNiles
    Mar 24, 2025
    Summary: While I believe this last week in March should be positive for the S&P given greater than normal pension fund rebalancing, I believe Q1 earnings season will be rough as estimates get lowered. I doubt corporations in particular will be making major spending decisions with
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    Dan Niles
    @DanielTNiles
    Sep 7, 2023
    Sold $AAPL & now our largest single stock short. Believe 1) China (19% of rev) ban expanding to SOEs 2) Huawei resurgence 3) student loan repayment restart 4) CQ3 being 4th down y/y rev qtr in a row, will force investors to question 29x CY23 PE w/ no major AI play vs S&P at 21x.
    user avatar
    Dan Niles
    @DanielTNiles
    Sep 6, 2023
    Since posting on buying $AAPL for a high probability trade on 8/18/23 going into IP15 launch, stock is +9% vs +3% S&P. Starting to sell position given Huawei’s breakthrough w/ their 7nm processor for new Mate60 Pro. Plan to be short $AAPL near IP15 launch. danniles.com/articles/08-20…
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    Dan Niles
    @DanielTNiles
    Aug 28, 2025
    I thought NVDA would report a very strong quarter and was more concerned about their China commentary. I was wrong. In reality, they missed expectations of datacenter revs (though by just 1%) for the first time since the intro of ChatGPT in late 2022 and beat overall rev
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  • user avatar
    Dan Niles
    @DanielTNiles
    Apr 11, 2025
    Bond mkt is 20-30% bigger than stock mkt. “Credit is the lifeblood of the economy.” ~50 bps rise in 10 & 30 yr yield in a tumultuous wk rivals issues during GFC. $USD from $110 in Jan to ~$100 increases losses for foreign investors. Worried something breaking if this continues.
    134K
  • user avatar
    Dan Niles
    @DanielTNiles
    Jun 30, 2025
    Mid Year Update I came into the year negative which is why cash in money market funds that yielded over 4% was my lead Top 5 Pick. Poor Q4:2024 earnings results during which six of the seven Magnificent 7 had forward revenue forecasts go down and volatility caused by tariffs
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