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Derivatives Don
16.4K posts
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Derivatives Don
@DerivativesDon
Joined August 2024
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    Derivatives Don
    @DerivativesDon
    Sep 11, 2024
    Fist pounding table very hard Process Start out with macro Use Daily and 4 Hour to determine tone Operate against 30/60 minute charts with strength of tone in mind. Never trade against macro Never trade against charts When they both line up - make your living.
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    Derivatives Don
    @DerivativesDon
    Sep 11, 2024
    Leads me to believe that someone is entering a position (recession crash) vs exiting a position Will give the exit argument this - all have been profitable trades, and/or if top of the house at a pod shop doing it, they are not panicking, just conducting business in a smart way
    188K
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    Derivatives Don
    @DerivativesDon
    Mar 27, 2025
    BTC becoming a hospice for CEOs with failed business models
    374K
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    Derivatives Don
    @DerivativesDon
    Sep 2, 2025
    I assure you of one thing If any G7 defaults on their sovereign debt, the last thing you will want to own is crypto.
    173K
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    Derivatives Don
    @DerivativesDon
    Apr 8, 2025
    The move in swap spreads is alarming Are people selling USTs to meet margin calls rather than de-levering the actual risk asset? Are banks refusing to warehouse the USTs (vs swaps) forcing Treasuries to cheapen?
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    170K
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    Derivatives Don
    @DerivativesDon
    Apr 13, 2025
    The single most important price is not SPX or the 30yr UST rate It’s Volatility And volatility means there is an SPX cap (risk manager call) not a Fed put The maximum amount of leverage available to the market is now capped, and so is your max total return. Invest accordingly
    96K
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    Derivatives Don
    @DerivativesDon
    Mar 24, 2025
    Miran telling you exactly what Bessent telling you Going to be bumpy and painful transition from Government to Private Investment And it's not just the government spending, it's all the downstream, non-government jobs that feed off it Chose not to believe them at your own risk
    79K
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    Derivatives Don
    @DerivativesDon
    Aug 19, 2025
    Replying to @Dr_Gingerballs
    Buying an existing house involves 1) Paying for the house 2) Paying the current owner for their deep in the money mortgage option
    21K
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    Derivatives Don
    @DerivativesDon
    Apr 29, 2025
    If the average trade deal takes between 18 months and 3 years, why do we need to have an update on how things are going every single day, if not multiple times a day?
    48K
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    Derivatives Don
    @DerivativesDon
    Jul 1, 2025
    The current root cause for high Fed Funds is too much QE and too much ATI Doing even more ATI (issuing even more Bills) is throwing kerosene on the fire you are HOPING will go out as you Term In the debt Spending financed with Bill,issuance is the single largest source of
    137K
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    Derivatives Don
    @DerivativesDon
    Apr 10, 2025
    Important to understand how realized volatility of the past week, past month will remain as a dark rain cloud over this market Leverage will not be able to reach the levels that were necessary to generate the ATH levels in equities earlier this year for quite some time
    49K
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    Derivatives Don
    @DerivativesDon
    Apr 14, 2025
    If there is one person who doesn’t get to criticize what is happening with bonds, it is Janet Maybe she should say “I am sorry” Had their chance with term and equity risk premium low, and swap spreads at a much more reasonable level Chose politics over good policy
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    38K
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    Derivatives Don
    @DerivativesDon
    Apr 27, 2025
    People seem to be in complete denial over what is (not) coming to stores near us soon. It will be a cliff edge, and we are not talking about luxury goods, these are staples.
    73K
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    Derivatives Don
    @DerivativesDon
    Apr 16, 2025
    I don't recall hearing Powell's voice so unwavering There is absolutely nothing for them to do Sitting in Bessent's waiting room
    14K
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    Derivatives Don
    @DerivativesDon
    Apr 15, 2025
    Bulls will look back and realize the worst thing that ever happened was last Wednesday’s rally Too little participation Too much all at once Too much contribution to VAR limit
    20K

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