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Forget the headline on #payroll data. This was a brutal #Jobs report. Out of the +147k additional jobs, an astounding +138.6k came from State govt (+47k), Local govt (+33k), and Health care and social assistance (58.6k). The rest of job market created just 8.4k jobs.
Our #data
Was a pleasure joining @JackFarley96 again to dive deep into our nation’s healthcare addiction and the risk to the job market as we try to reign in costs.
Out now - healthcare vet @EricPachman on a 2008 moment for U.S. Healthcare
Why this "monstrosity" that employs more people than Finance & Tech combined is set for a recessionary implosion
Apple 🔊 rb.gy/8k36yn
Spotify 🔊 rb.gy/o0oi35
Was a pleasure joining @JackFarley96 again to dive deep into our nation’s healthcare addiction and the risk to the job market as we try to reign in costs.
Check out our Chief Analytics Officer, @EricPachman , on Monetary Matters, where he and @JackFarley96 discuss risks to the healthcare job market and how any resulting U.S. economic malaise could benefit Bancreek’s international large cap ETF, BCIL.
bancreeketfs.com/posts/monetary…
WTF just happened?? #Payroll data misses for July, but that's not even remotely the story this month. Rather, it's the downward revision to prior months! Remember that +147k payroll gain reported last month? It was revised down to +14k. How about May, which was initially reported
According to @ADP ...
"The ADP National Employment Report (NER) presents independent measures of the U.S. labor market based on ADP payroll data covering more than half a million companies"
Meanwhile, the @BLS_gov reports surveying 651,000 establishments for nonfarm payrolls
Is anyone else growing more concerned about the quality of the U.S. #economic#data on which the fate of markets hinge?
Below is the #CES (Current Employment Statistics) survey (a.k.a. #nonfarm#payroll) response rate over time. It's down to just 42.6% from over 60% a decade
#PCE#inflation just came out at 2.6% YoY headline and 2.8% YoY core. Both numbers were above consensus expectations (2.5% and 2.7%, respectively).
Note that the real "surprise" here was not June's number, but the upward revision to May's PCE number, which brought May's core PCE
Between 1990 and 2023 #Medicaid spending has grown from $72 billion to $894 billion. Over the same period, #healthcare and social assistance #Jobs have grown from 9.3 million to 21.5 million (and btw, as of May 2025 they were up to 23.1 million). Coincidence? Likely not.
But the
Day 5. Chart of the Day.
Hey everyone, great news! There is no problem with prescription drug #inflation! Well, at least according to the #CPI data that is. Average prescription drug inflation dating back to 2005 has been just 2.6% YoY, exactly in line with overall inflation.
Better late than never, we've updated our PCE #inflation item level analyzer to include last Friday's data release (Aug 2024 data). Note that essentially ALL of the decline from July (2.45%) to August (2.24%) PCE was driven by gasoline prices (20 of the 21 basis points).
and this likely assumes that cuts to Medicaid and other health care policy changes don't hurt the job market, leading to even lower inflows than are currently projected.
There is a growing disconnect between @ADP payroll data and the @BLS_gov#CES nonfarm payroll dataset, especially when it comes to Private education and healthcare services (of which I estimate ~85% is health care).
Take a look at the following chart, which compares the two
WTF just happened?? #Payroll data misses for July, but that's not even remotely the story this month. Rather, it's the downward revision to prior months! Remember that +147k payroll gain reported last month? It was revised down to +14k. How about May, which was initially reported