Fabian Hoffmann (@FRHoffmann1) / X

Fabian Hoffmann

8,876 posts

Fabian Hoffmann

@FRHoffmann1

Senior Research Fellow @IFS_Oslo / Non-Resident Fellow @CEPA Defense policy, missile technology, and nuclear strategy. Views are strictly my own.

Oslo, Norway

missilematters.substack.com/subscribe

Joined April 2019

Pinned
Fabian Hoffmann
@FRHoffmann1
19h
🚀 I just published my latest Missile Matters post assessing Russia's growing air and missile defense problem. Russia is now experiencing the same interceptor scarcity that has long plagued Ukraine. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/missile-defe… Short summary below. 1/5
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Fabian Hoffmann
@FRHoffmann1
Feb 28, 2025
It's time to unleash German industry on Russia. No more holding back.
Friedrich Merz
@_FriedrichMerz
Feb 28, 2025
Dear Volodymyr @zelenskyyua, we stand with #Ukraine in good and in testing times. We must never confuse aggressor and victim in this terrible war. (FM)
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Fabian Hoffmann
@FRHoffmann1
Jan 14, 2024
In this thread, I will explain why we are much closer to war with 🇷🇺 than most people realize and why our time window for rearmament is shorter than many believe. In my opinion, we have at best 2-3 years to re-establish deterrence vis-à-vis 🇷🇺. Here's why 👇 1/20
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Fabian Hoffmann
@FRHoffmann1
May 16, 2023
If I was a Russian nuclear strategist today, I would be very worried. You just received proof of concept that Western air and missile defenses can intercept 100% of your tactical nuclear delivery vehicles (SRBM, BM, aircraft) in a time-coordinated, multi-vector attack.
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Fabian Hoffmann
@FRHoffmann1
May 7, 2025
Yeah, doesn't seem to be a bad day to be selling this thing lmao
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Fabian Hoffmann
@FRHoffmann1
Mar 19, 2025
I mean, 'kill switch' or not... The pure fact that Lockheed Martin had to send out this post shows the magnitude of the damage the U.S. defense industrial sector has suffered in recent weeks.
F-35 Lightning II
@thef35
Mar 18, 2025
‘There is no kill switch’—The F-35 'kill switch' rumor has been debunked. “After weeks of speculation, the Pentagon formally denies having the ability to remotely disable @LockheedMartin’s F-35 fighter jets.”
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Fabian Hoffmann
@FRHoffmann1
Jul 16, 2024
Six months ago I wrote a viral thread, arguing that NATO has 2-3 years to prepare for Russia challenging NATO Art 5. I wanted to revisit the topic for a while. In light of @JDVance1's pick as VP, today seems as good as any. TLDR: panic should set in. 1/15
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Fabian Hoffmann
@FRHoffmann1
Jan 11, 2025
I dislike some of the EU's regulatory overreach as much as anyone. But if Trump steps in to back Musk and Zuckerberg on this, I’ll wholeheartedly side with the EU bureaucrats, no matter the personal cost—whether it affects my convenience or standard of living. If Americans want
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Fabian Hoffmann
@FRHoffmann1
Oct 17, 2024
I cannot understand why people are surprised or shocked by Zelensky's nuclear weapon statement. Ukraine's desire to acquire a nuclear deterrent is a logical conclusion given the current state of the war and Western policy towards it. In fact, I would encourage the acquisition of
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Fabian Hoffmann
@FRHoffmann1
Apr 11, 2024
Let's face it, Ukraine's largest power station being permanently disabled is really bad. We are witnessing the failure of the appeasers and escalation managers' strategy in Ukraine. Not providing Ukraine with the means to disable Russian launchers was never sustainable. 1/3
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Fabian Hoffmann
@FRHoffmann1
Jul 15, 2024
When people claim medium-range missiles in Germany are destabilizing because they can reach homeland targets deep inside Russia, including Moscow, ask how often they’ve complained about short-range ballistic and land-attack cruise missiles stationed in Kaliningrad. 1/5
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Fabian Hoffmann
@FRHoffmann1
Jul 8, 2024
To emphasize the absurdity of this argument: An AIM-120 and similar interceptor missiles will self-destruct mid-air if they miss their targets or lose radar lock. The likelihood of an AIM-120 missing its target, failing to self-destruct, and then landing precisely on a
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Fabian Hoffmann
@FRHoffmann1
Sep 1, 2024
Keep in mind that Moscow is protected by a ring of 22 S-300/S-400 air defense sites, most of which should cover the refinery. Additionally, there are at least 9 recently redeployed Pantsir S1/S2 systems that should have been able to protect against this type of drone attack 1/2
(((Tendar)))
@Tendar
Sep 1, 2024
The Kaputnya Oil Refinery is one of the few industrial facilities still in Moscow's vicinity. It is only 16 km (10 miles) from the Kremlin. What's funny for me is that I was checking out that plant only a few days ago on Google Earth and thought, "well, that is a nice target."
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Fabian Hoffmann
@FRHoffmann1
Jul 28, 2024
Here is an uncomfortable truth some need to hear: Since at least 2014, Russia has played the West for fools. They have lied, cheated, and acted in bad faith, yet Western analysts and governments still pushed for what amounted to unilateral disarmament. 1/3
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