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Jonathan Ferro
@FerroTV
Good Morning, Good Morning. Anchor @Business
Never left GMT
Joined December 2012
Posts
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    Carnage so far in 2022 Netflix -72.4% = worst year on record Facebook -43.9% = worst on record Amazon -36.8% = worst since '08 Tesla -30.5% = worst on record Microsoft -22.5% = worst since '08 Google -21.6% = worst since '08 Apple -17.5% = worst since '08
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    No longer QE or QT... It's Quantitative Confusion
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    Fed: Hikes 75bps SNB: Hikes 50bps BoE: Hikes 25bps ECB: A plan to make a plan BoJ: Operation ostrich
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    Fascinating moment in the presser. A journalist wrongly misleads Powell into thinking the market was still rallying and we're all getting real time insight into what he thinks about that... He's leaning hard against it.
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    Happy Birthday to an absolute legend. Longtime partner on-air, a best friend off-air. You’re a national treasure TK and we’re all very lucky to have you. @tomkeene
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    Your 2023 S&P 500 forecasts: Deutsche Bank 4500 Oppenheimer 4400 BMO 4300 JPMorgan 4200 Jefferies 4200 Wells 4200 Evercore 4150 RBC 4100 Credit Suisse 4050 Goldman Sachs 4000 HSBC 4000 Citi 4000 BofA 4000 UBS 3900 Morgan Stanley 3900 Barclays 3725 SocGen 3650 BNP Paribas 3400
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    “19 bear markets past 140 years...avg price decline = 37.3% & avg duration = 289 days… past performance no guide to future performance, but if it were, today's bear market ends Oct 19th '22 with S&P500 at 3000, Nasdaq at 10000; good news is many stocks already there” BofA
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    Lagarde says "we know we're not done" Powell says "we've got more work to do" Market hears "meh you're basically done"
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    The year so far January: soft landing! February: no landing! March: hard landing! April: credit crunch surely? May: it’s just mega cap tech June: it’s a bull market!!!!
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    June Inflation Estimates BNP Paribas 8.9% Citi 8.9% HSBC 8.9% TD 8.9% Goldman 8.9% Barclays 8.8% Credit Suisse 8.8% Jefferies 8.8% Morgan Stanley 8.8% SocGen 8.8% StanChart 8.8% Unicredit 8.8% Wells Fargo 8.8% Nomura 8.8% BofA 8.7% ING 8.7% JPMorgan 8.7% Natixis 8.6% Visa 8.6%
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    Fed Rate Hike Guesses Barclays +75bps Deutsche Bank +75bps CapEcon +75bps Goldman +75bps JPMorgan +75bps Jefferies +75bps Nomura +75bps SocGen +75bps TD +75bps Wells +75bps BNP +50bps BofA +50bps Citi +50bps Credit Suisse +50bps HSBC +50bps Morgan Stanley +50bps StanChart +50bps
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    Powell Dec 1: it’s premature to talk about easing Powell Dec 13: we’re talking about the timing of easing Williams Dec 15: we aren’t really talking about it 🤦‍♂️
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    Remember at the start of the year when Fed hikes = buy banks... JPMorgan -25.5% YTD Goldman -21.7% YTD Morgan Stanley -19.9% YTD Citigroup -22.9% YTD BofA -21.2% YTD
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    Signing out for the year. Big thanks for the partnership. Thank you for pushing me and thank you for making me smarter every single day. I hope you can all get away from the screens for a little bit and enjoy your families… Because nothing else matters. Merry Christmas.
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