Pinned
Replying to @Liquidity_Taker
Consensus reactions are gameable. Play the players
Andrew Mack
7,454 posts
Andrew Mack
@Gingfacekillah
Sports Bettor & Retail Trader. JD/MSc Grad. Statistical Sports Models with R & Excel. Bayesian Enthusiast. Pricing Uncertainty.
is there a specific post that you still think about- Good places to look for +EV: 1. The idea is hard to backtest 2. The data is hard to acquire 3. A known input can be transformed into something novel or hard to compute. 5. The idea is known, but has only been applied to one specific area or time horizon. 1/n
- After an absolute marathon of collaborative writing over the past few months, @SinclairEuan and I are pleased to announce the release of our new book: Retail Options Trading. amazon.com/dp/B0DL7FCKKC Please see follow-up posts for important release notes.
- After a very long writing hiatus, I am pleased to announce the release of a new book, "Bayesian Sports Models in R". 355 pages. Fully colorized R & Stan code. Full R code download package. Now if you'll excuse me, I've got some bets/trades to make 🫡 amazon.com/dp/B0D9H2YLWJ
- A few suggested online courses for taking your sports modelling to the next level. [Available to take for free] 1. Excel: Wayne Winston "The Math Behind Moneyball" 2. Basic Statistics With R 3. Bayesian Statistics in R
- After a long day of buying at the ask and selling at the bid
- 1. Bayes Adapt or get rekt. 2. Information Theory Kelly is cool, but don't skip Shannon. 3. Game Theory Markets = Nash equilibria under constant attack. 4. Tail Risk Reality isn’t normal. Mandelbrot > Gauss. Have a great weekend 🫡
- In law school, we were taught to prepare case briefs/ exam answers using a structure called FIRAC. Facts, Issue, Ratio, Analysis, Conclusion. After spending some time this weekend going over some of @therobotjames trading threads, I sketched out a structure for trading edges. 1/n
- We're almost finished. Hoping to release around the end of October / start of November.Chapter on exactly how to look for inefficiencies. Followed by 100 pages of examples. Don't say we didn't tell you.
