I spent the last 2 months going viral on TikTok (2M+ views).
And the prior 6 trying to build in Consumer Social.
Here's what you should know about the future of Social 👇
💉Post-COVID Summer:
Everyone’s outside. Which means Video Views across TikTok & YouTube are down 30-40% from peak pandemic levels.
Which means creator ad revenue is down 30-40%.
🤕Creator Burnout:
No one is talking about this enough. The content creation hamster wheel is _AWFUL_ on mental health.
My bet is that we’ll see steady-state churn mirroring the restaurant/SMB industry.
💰Too much VC hype:
There’s too much capital chasing too few quality creators.
The total creator market (especially the ‘creator middle class’) still needs 2-3yrs to catch up to a sizable TAM.
If you want to stay up-to-date on the Creator Economy, follow me for my weekly learnings:
🎵 Growing my own TikTok account (40k+)
🎨 Building for the internet’s biggest Creators
💸 Angel investing in Creators 𝘢𝘯𝘥 Creator startups
So where would I invest? GMV-based businesses are going to be a bumpy ride this summer.
I’d bet on companies working with well-established creators, and not mass market tools serving every pandemic ‘one-hit-wonder’.
Dig deep into creator retention and word-of-mouth virality.♻️
🏆Fierce Competition:
Expect the vast majority of creator startups to flame out in the next 1-2yrs.
Heavyweights like Patreon and Kajabi raising $bn+, and every YC company adding ~creator~ to their tagline.
If I were to invest anywhere in Social today, it would be in intimate, closed networks - a need not filled by TikTok.
iMessage, WhatsApp, and Messenger have struggled to capture this intimacy.
Though Snap has a strong foothold with Gen Z. 👻
IG's recent redesign was the beginning of its end.
It's just a feed of memes and influencers now, not friends.
Reels was a painful example of a talented team stuck in the Innovator's Dilemma. 😔