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Office for Budget Responsibility
2,033 posts
Office for Budget Responsibility
@OBR_UK
Official Twitter channel of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The OBR provides independent and authoritative analysis of the UK’s public finances.
- Living standards are expected to fall by 6% over this fiscal year and next as inflation outstrips income growth. This is less than the 7% fall we expected in November but still the largest two-year fall since ONS records began in the 1950s. #SpringBudget #Budget2023
- Living standards are forecast to be 3½ per cent lower in 2024-25 than pre-pandemic. This would be the largest reduction in living standards since records began in the 1950s, but only half the fall we expected in March. #AutumnStatement
- The triple lock has cost around 3x more than expected. In our central projection, the triple lock explains 1.6pts of the 2.7% of GDP rise in state pension spending. If recent volatility persists, it could add a further 1.5pts; a steadier path could reduce it by 1.3pts.
- UK trade intensity (exports plus imports divided by GDP) has not recovered in line with other G7 countries since the pandemic. We continue to expect that Brexit will reduce the UK’s potential GDP by 4% in the long run by lowering the trade intensity of the economy. #Budget2024
- Debt has risen above 100% of GDP for first time since 1960-61, but the cost of servicing that debt falls to new historic lows. #SpendingReview
- We are still legally obliged to assess the Government against its fiscal targets. Based on our central forecast, they are all missed. #Budget2021
- The Chair of the OBR has written to the @CommonsTreasury Select Committee on the OBR’s initiation of a review into the preparation of the Departmental Expenditure Limits forecast for the March 2024 EFO.
- Our three-month lockdown scenario sees GDP fall by a third, but with a quick recovery as the restrictions are lifted. #OBRcovidscenario
00:00 - We have just been commissioned by the Chancellor to produce an updated outlook for the economy and public finances on Wednesday 23 November gov.uk/government/new…
00:00 - Our November 2023 GDP forecast. Full forecast published after the Chancellor’s #AutumnStatement speech
- How are our Brexit assumptions performing? In light of higher-than-expected net migration but relatively weak business investment and trade, we have left our view unrevised that Brexit will result in 4% lower productivity in the long run. More in Box 2.4 obr.uk/box/how-are-ou…
- The UK’s public finances have emerged from a series of global shocks in a relatively vulnerable position. At the end of 2024, the UK government had the sixth-highest debt, the fifth-highest deficit, and third-highest borrowing costs among 36 advanced economies. #OBRfiscalrisks
- Robert Chote stands down today after 10 years as Chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility. BRC colleagues and OBR staff applaud his success in establishing the OBR and promoting the cause of fiscal transparency. Best of luck – we will miss you! 👨🎨@SimonHeath1
